National Refinery (KAR:NRL) Risk Assessment

Author: Vera Yuan Vera Yuan
Vera Yuan
Vera Yuan
Director of Data and Quant Analytics at GuruFocus
Focused on building reliable datasets, financial models, and research tools for value-minded investors. Committed to turning complex data into practical guidance for value-investing and long-term wealth.
Reviewed by: Charlie Tian Charlie Tian
Charlie Tian
Charlie Tian
Founder & CEO of GuruFocus
Dr. Charlie Tian is the founder and CEO of GuruFocus.com, a leading global investment research platform established in 2004. With a Ph.D. in physics, Dr. Tian transitioned from science to finance, applying a data-driven, disciplined approach to value investing.

KAR:NRL National Refinery Ltd KAR:NRL
69 GF Score
Price ₨442.76
GF Value ₨333.11
Valuation Significantly Overvalued
! 4 Warning Signs
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What is National Refinery Risk Assessment?

Risk Assessment represents the investment risk of a stock derived from our exclusive method. It suggests how risky the investment opportunity is based on the valuation and the fundamental performance of the stock. It is derived from following key aspects:

1. GuruFocus internally developed valuations of the stock, such as GF valuation.
2. Quality Rank, a business quality indicator developed by GuruFocus.
3. Fundamental performance: Piotroski F-Score, Altman Z-Score, Beneish M-Score, etc.
4. Growth opportunities: 5-year revenue growth rate, 5-Year EPS without NRI Growth Rate, etc.

Value investors are always willing to find undervalued stocks. However, not all the undervalued stocks are good deals, we should also be careful of how risky the investment opportunity is. We believe that if the company's financial strength and profitability are strong, and the stock price is within a reasonable range of the GF valuation, or stock has a high return with its price being undervalued, then it might be a good investment opportunity with low risk.

Based on those aspects listed above, GuruFocus believes the risk assessment of National Refinery is: High Risk: High uncertainty with risk-return tradeoff.

National Refinery  (KAR:NRL) Risk Assessment Explanation

Based on the four aspects listed above, GuruFocus provides the following 7 evaluations:

All-in-One Screener Examples (1)
Low Risk: Strong fundamentals, worth long-term holding
Moderate Risk: Sensitive, better choose undervalued stock
High Risk: High uncertainty with risk-return tradeoff
High Risk: Good fundamentals, beware of shrinking business
High Risk: Sensitive to economic or industry trends
High Risk: High uncertainty
No Data: Cannot be evaluated

(1) These are some simple examples. You can access our Risk Assessment filter under All-in-One Screener’s Fundamental tab and set your own criteria.

National Refinery Risk Assessment Related Terms

KAR:NRL vs MPC, VLO, PSX: Risk Assessment Comparison

For the Oil & Gas Refining & Marketing subindustry, National Refinery's Risk Assessment, along with its competitors' market caps and Risk Assessment data, can be viewed below:

* Competitive companies are chosen from companies within the same industry, with headquarter located in same country, with closest market capitalization; x-axis shows the market cap, and y-axis shows the term value; the bigger the dot, the larger the market cap. Note that "N/A" values will not show up in the chart.

National Refinery Risk Assessment vs Oil & Gas Industry

For the Oil & Gas industry and Energy sector, National Refinery's Risk Assessment distribution charts can be found below:

* The bar in red indicates where National Refinery's Risk Assessment falls into.


KAR:NRL
69GF Score
National Refinery Ltd KAR:NRL
Risk Assessment is just one metric. See GF Score™, valuation, warning signs, and more.
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Is National Refinery (KAR:NRL) Overvalued in 2026?

Based on GuruFocus' analysis, National Refinery stock appears to be overvalued. The current stock price of ₨442.76 is trading 32.9% above its estimated GF Value™ of ₨333.11. GuruFocus considers National Refinery to be Significantly Overvalued.

Key valuation signals for KAR:NRL:

  • Risk Assessment:
  • GF Value™: ₨333.11 vs. price of ₨442.76 (32.9% above fair value)
  • GF Score™: 69/100 with 4 warning signs

No single metric tells the full story. See the KAR:NRL stock analysis page for a complete view including 30-year financials, guru trades, and insider activity.

National Refinery Business Description

Industry EnergyOil & Gas
Address 7-B, Korangi Industrial Area, P.O. Box 8228, Karachi, PAK, 74900
National Refinery Ltd is a Pakistan-based company engaged in manufacturing and supplying fuel products, lubes, BTX, asphalts and specialty products for domestic consumption and export. It is also involved in the crude oil refining business. The company operates through two segments namely Fuel and Lube. The Fuel segment, which is the key revenue driver, is engaged in the production of high-speed diesel, naphtha, motor gasoline, liquefied petroleum gas, jet fuels, and furnace oil. The Lube segment produces multiple grades of lube base oils, bitumen, waxes and rubber process oil and some quantities of other fuel products. It derives maximum revenue from Fuel Segment.
69GF Score

Get the complete analysis for KAR:NRL

Risk Assessment is just one metric. See GF Value™, 30-year financials, guru trades, warning signs, and more.

₨442.76
Price
₨333.11
GF Value