National Refinery (KAR:NRL) Beneish M-Score: -2.22 (As of Jun. 26, 2026)


KAR:NRL National Refinery Ltd KAR:NRL
70 GF Score
Price ₨365.16
GF Value ₨330.68
Valuation Fairly Valued
! 2 Warning Signs
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What is National Refinery Beneish M-Score?

National Refinery KAR:NRL -0.79% 70 Beneish M-Score is -2.22 as of Jun. 26, 2026. GuruFocus rates KAR:NRL with a GF Score™ of 70/100 and a GF Value™ of ₨330.68 (Fairly Valued). The stock has 2 warning signs investors should review. Among 822 Oil & Gas companies, National Refinery ranks worse than 76.28% on this metric.

The zones of discrimination for M-Score is as such:

An M-Score of equal or less than -1.78 suggests that the company is unlikely to be a manipulator.
An M-Score of greater than -1.78 signals that the company is likely to be a manipulator.

Good Sign:

Beneish M-Score -2.22 no higher than -1.78, which implies that the company is unlikely to be a manipulator.

The historical rank and industry rank for National Refinery's Beneish M-Score or its related term are showing as below:

KAR:NRL' s Beneish M-Score Range Over the Past 10 Years
Min: -5.21   Med: -2.21   Max: 7.94
Current: -2.22

During the past 13 years, the highest Beneish M-Score of National Refinery was 7.94. The lowest was -5.21. And the median was -2.21.


National Refinery Beneish M-Score Historical Data

* Premium members only.

The historical data trend for National Refinery's Beneish M-Score can be seen below:

* For Operating Data section: All numbers are indicated by the unit behind each term and all currency related amount are in USD.
* For other sections: All numbers are in millions except for per share data, ratio, and percentage. All currency related amount are indicated in the company's associated stock exchange currency.

National Refinery Beneish M-Score Chart

National Refinery Annual Data
Trend Jun16 Jun17 Jun18 Jun19 Jun20 Jun21 Jun22 Jun23 Jun24 Jun25
Beneish M-Score
Get a 7-Day Free Trial Premium Member Only Premium Member Only -3.49 -2.08 -0.89 -4.21 -1.62

National Refinery Quarterly Data
Jun21 Sep21 Dec21 Mar22 Jun22 Sep22 Dec22 Mar23 Jun23 Sep23 Dec23 Mar24 Jun24 Sep24 Dec24 Mar25 Jun25 Sep25 Dec25 Mar26
Beneish M-Score Get a 7-Day Free Trial Premium Member Only Premium Member Only Premium Member Only Premium Member Only Premium Member Only Premium Member Only Premium Member Only Premium Member Only Premium Member Only Premium Member Only Premium Member Only Premium Member Only -2.68 -1.62 -4.77 -2.59 -2.22

KAR:NRL vs VLO, MPC, PSX: Beneish M-Score Comparison

For the Oil & Gas Refining & Marketing subindustry, National Refinery's Beneish M-Score, along with its competitors' market caps and Beneish M-Score data, can be viewed below:

* Competitive companies are chosen from companies within the same industry, with headquarter located in same country, with closest market capitalization; x-axis shows the market cap, and y-axis shows the term value; the bigger the dot, the larger the market cap. Note that "N/A" values will not show up in the chart.


National Refinery Beneish M-Score vs Oil & Gas Industry

For the Oil & Gas industry and Energy sector, National Refinery's Beneish M-Score distribution charts can be found below:

* The bar in red indicates where National Refinery's Beneish M-Score falls into.


KAR:NRL
70GF Score
National Refinery Ltd KAR:NRL
Beneish M-Score is just one metric. See GF Score™, valuation, warning signs, and more.
View Full Analysis

National Refinery Beneish M-Score Calculation

The M-score was created by Professor Messod Beneish. Instead of measuring the bankruptcy risk (Altman Z-Score) or business trend (Piotroski F-Score), M-score can be used to detect the risk of earnings manipulation. This is the original research paper on M-score.

The M-Score Variables:

The M-score of National Refinery for today is based on a combination of the following eight different indices:

M=-4.84+0.92 * DSRI+0.528 * GMI+0.404 * AQI+0.892 * SGI+0.115 * DEPI
=-4.84+0.92 * 1.6611+0.528 * -0.623+0.404 * 0.3681+0.892 * 1.252+0.115 * 4.5162
-0.172 * SGAI+4.679 * TATA-0.327 * LVGI
-0.172 * 1.0455+4.679 * 0.012911-0.327 * 0.7623
=-2.22

* For Operating Data section: All numbers are indicated by the unit behind each term and all currency related amount are in USD.
* For other sections: All numbers are in millions except for per share data, ratio, and percentage. All currency related amount are indicated in the company's associated stock exchange currency.

This Year (Mar26) TTM:Last Year (Mar25) TTM:
Total Receivables was ₨54,214 Mil.
Revenue was 117034.348 + 95015.142 + 79574.67 + 81724.772 = ₨373,349 Mil.
Gross Profit was 15154.13 + 4231.787 + 4111.805 + 1707.071 = ₨25,205 Mil.
Total Current Assets was ₨137,460 Mil.
Total Assets was ₨217,307 Mil.
Property, Plant and Equipment(Net PPE) was ₨67,496 Mil.
Depreciation, Depletion and Amortization(DDA) was ₨2,087 Mil.
Selling, General, & Admin. Expense(SGA) was ₨1,476 Mil.
Total Current Liabilities was ₨151,363 Mil.
Long-Term Debt & Capital Lease Obligation was ₨5,725 Mil.
Net Income was 7301.836 + 740.176 + 1025.086 + -376.682 = ₨8,690 Mil.
Non Operating Income was 0 + 0 + 0 + 0 = ₨0 Mil.
Cash Flow from Operations was 11140.611 + -5831.382 + 1760.658 + -1185.085 = ₨5,885 Mil.
Total Receivables was ₨26,068 Mil.
Revenue was 84106.235 + 74856.034 + 66975.812 + 72260.615 = ₨298,199 Mil.
Gross Profit was -192.908 + -1451.153 + -6297.241 + -4599.986 = ₨-12,541 Mil.
Total Current Assets was ₨65,288 Mil.
Total Assets was ₨103,703 Mil.
Property, Plant and Equipment(Net PPE) was ₨22,404 Mil.
Depreciation, Depletion and Amortization(DDA) was ₨3,510 Mil.
Selling, General, & Admin. Expense(SGA) was ₨1,128 Mil.
Total Current Liabilities was ₨83,226 Mil.
Long-Term Debt & Capital Lease Obligation was ₨15,115 Mil.




1. DSRI = Days Sales in Receivables Index

Measured as the ratio of Revenue in Total Receivables in year t to year t-1.

A large increase in DSR could be indicative of revenue inflation.

DSRI=(Receivables_t / Revenue_t) / (Receivables_t-1 / Revenue_t-1)
=(54213.911 / 373348.932) / (26067.855 / 298198.696)
=0.14521 / 0.087418
=1.6611

2. GMI = Gross Margin Index

Measured as the ratio of gross margin in year t-1 to gross margin in year t.

Gross margin has deteriorated when this index is above 1. A firm with poorer prospects is more likely to manipulate earnings.

GMI=GrossMargin_t-1 / GrossMargin_t
=(GrossProfit_t-1 / Revenue_t-1) / (GrossProfit_t / Revenue_t)
=(-12541.288 / 298198.696) / (25204.793 / 373348.932)
=-0.042057 / 0.06751
=-0.623

3. AQI = Asset Quality Index

AQI is the ratio of asset quality in year t to year t-1.

Asset quality is measured as the ratio of non-current assets other than Property, Plant and Equipment to Total Assets.

AQI=(1 - (CurrentAssets_t + PPE_t) / TotalAssets_t) / (1 - (CurrentAssets_t-1 + PPE_t-1) / TotalAssets_t-1)
=(1 - (137460.321 + 67495.606) / 217306.838) / (1 - (65287.537 + 22403.757) / 103702.683)
=0.056836 / 0.154397
=0.3681

4. SGI = Sales Growth Index

Ratio of Revenue in year t to sales in year t-1.

Sales growth is not itself a measure of manipulation. However, growth companies are likely to find themselves under pressure to manipulate in order to keep up appearances.

SGI=Sales_t / Sales_t-1
=Revenue_t / Revenue_t-1
=373348.932 / 298198.696
=1.252

5. DEPI = Depreciation Index

Measured as the ratio of the rate of Depreciation, Depletion and Amortization in year t-1 to the corresponding rate in year t.

DEPI greater than 1 indicates that assets are being depreciated at a slower rate. This suggests that the firm might be revising useful asset life assumptions upwards, or adopting a new method that is income friendly.

DEPI=(Depreciation_t-1 / (Depreciaton_t-1 + PPE_t-1)) / (Depreciation_t / (Depreciaton_t + PPE_t))
=(3510.421 / (3510.421 + 22403.757)) / (2087.128 / (2087.128 + 67495.606))
=0.135463 / 0.029995
=4.5162

Note: If the Depreciation, Depletion and Amortization data is not available, we assume that the depreciation rate is constant and set the Depreciation Index to 1.

6. SGAI = Sales, General and Administrative expenses Index

The ratio of Selling, General, & Admin. Expense(SGA) to Sales in year t relative to year t-1.

SGA expenses index > 1 means that the company is becoming less efficient in generate sales.

SGAI=(SGA_t / Sales_t) / (SGA_t-1 /Sales_t-1)
=(1476.413 / 373348.932) / (1128.052 / 298198.696)
=0.003955 / 0.003783
=1.0455

7. LVGI = Leverage Index

The ratio of total debt to Total Assets in year t relative to yeat t-1.

An LVGI > 1 indicates an increase in leverage

LVGI=((LTD_t + CurrentLiabilities_t) / TotalAssets_t) / ((LTD_t-1 + CurrentLiabilities_t-1) / TotalAssets_t-1)
=((5725.061 + 151362.771) / 217306.838) / ((15114.562 + 83226.322) / 103702.683)
=0.722885 / 0.948296
=0.7623

8. TATA = Total Accruals to Total Assets

Total accruals calculated as the change in working capital accounts other than cash less depreciation.

TATA=(IncomefromContinuingOperations_t - CashFlowsfromOperations_t) / TotalAssets_t
=(NetIncome_t - NonOperatingIncome_t - CashFlowsfromOperations_t) / TotalAssets_t
=(8690.416 - 0 - 5884.802) / 217306.838
=0.012911

An M-Score of equal or less than -1.78 suggests that the company is unlikely to be a manipulator. An M-Score of greater than -1.78 signals that the company is likely to be a manipulator.

National Refinery has a M-score of -2.22 suggests that the company is unlikely to be a manipulator.

Frequently Asked Questions Learn more about Beneish M-Score →
What does a Beneish M-Score of -2.22 mean?
National Refinery (KAR:NRL) has a Beneish M-Score of -2.22 as of Jun. 26, 2026. The Beneish M-score measures the likelihood of earnings manipulation. View historical data on National Refinery and its competitors. According to the industry distribution chart, National Refinery ranks #627 out of 822 companies in the Oil & Gas industry, placing it in the top 76.3%.
Is National Refinery's Beneish M-Score too high?
National Refinery's current Beneish M-Score is -2.22. Based on the distribution chart, National Refinery ranks #627 out of 822 companies in the Oil & Gas industry, which is in the bottom quartile relative to peers. Overall, National Refinery has a GF Score™ of 70/100 and is considered Fairly Valued, reflecting its overall financial health beyond just this single metric.
How does National Refinery's Beneish M-Score compare to VLO and MPC?
According to the Oil & Gas industry distribution chart, National Refinery ranks #627 out of 822 companies for Beneish M-Score. This places National Refinery in the lower half of its industry. See the competitive comparison table and distribution chart on this page for a detailed peer-by-peer breakdown.
What is a good Beneish M-Score for an Oil & Gas company?
A good Beneish M-Score depends on the Oil & Gas industry context. However, Beneish M-Score should not be evaluated in isolation — investors should consider it alongside profitability, growth, and financial strength metrics. Use the industry distribution chart on this page to see where any company falls relative to its peers.
What does a high Beneish M-Score mean?
A high Beneish M-Score can signal that a stock is expensive relative to its fundamentals. The Beneish M-score measures the likelihood of earnings manipulation. View historical data on National Refinery and its competitors. National Refinery's current Beneish M-Score is -2.22. However, context matters — high-growth companies often justify higher valuations. Always evaluate alongside other metrics like GF Score™ and GF Value™.
Is National Refinery stock overvalued right now?
Based on GuruFocus' analysis, National Refinery (KAR:NRL) is currently considered Fairly Valued. The stock's GF Value™ is ₨330.68, compared to a current price of ₨365.16 — trading 10.4% above its estimated fair value. The current Beneish M-Score is -2.22. National Refinery's overall GF Score™ is 70/100 with 2 warning signs to review. Investors should evaluate multiple metrics — including profitability, growth, and financial strength — before making a decision.
How is Beneish M-Score calculated?
Beneish M-Score is calculated from a company's financial statements. For National Refinery (KAR:NRL), the current Beneish M-Score is -2.22 as of Jun. 26, 2026. GuruFocus calculates this using data sourced from SEC filings and annual reports. See the calculation section and 30-year financial data on this page for the full breakdown.

Is National Refinery (KAR:NRL) Overvalued in 2026?

Based on GuruFocus' analysis, National Refinery stock appears to be overvalued. The current stock price of ₨365.16 is trading 10.4% above its estimated GF Value™ of ₨330.68. GuruFocus considers National Refinery to be Fairly Valued.

Key valuation signals for KAR:NRL:

  • Beneish M-Score: -2.22
  • GF Value™: ₨330.68 vs. price of ₨365.16 (10.4% above fair value)
  • GF Score™: 70/100 with 2 warning signs

No single metric tells the full story. See the KAR:NRL stock analysis page for a complete view including 30-year financials, guru trades, and insider activity.


National Refinery Business Description

Industry EnergyOil & Gas
Address 7-B, Korangi Industrial Area, P.O. Box 8228, Karachi, PAK, 74900
National Refinery Ltd is a Pakistan-based company engaged in manufacturing and supplying fuel products, lubes, BTX, asphalts and specialty products for domestic consumption and export. It is also involved in the crude oil refining business. The company operates through two segments namely Fuel and Lube. The Fuel segment, which is the key revenue driver, is engaged in the production of high-speed diesel, naphtha, motor gasoline, liquefied petroleum gas, jet fuels, and furnace oil. The Lube segment produces multiple grades of lube base oils, bitumen, waxes and rubber process oil and some quantities of other fuel products. It derives maximum revenue from Fuel Segment.
70GF Score

Get the complete analysis for KAR:NRL

Beneish M-Score is just one metric. See GF Value™, 30-year financials, guru trades, warning signs, and more.

₨365.16
Price
₨330.68
GF Value