Probability of Financial Distress (%) measures the probability that a company will go bankrupt in the upcoming year given its current financial position. A higher ratio indicates a larger probability of bankruptcy for the company, while a lower ratio indicates a healthier fundamental. As of today, Zambia National Commercial Bank's Probability of Financial Distress (%) is 0.02%.
Like the Altman Z-Score, the PFD measures a company's bankruptcy risk. However, the main drawback of the Z-score is it does not apply to banks and insurance companies. According to Investopedia, the concept of "working capital" does not apply to banks and insurance companies, as financial institutions do not have typical current assets or current liabilities like inventories or accounts payable.
Zambia National Commercial Bank (LUS:ZNCO) Probability of Financial Distress (%) Explanation
Like the Altman Z-Score, the PFD measures a company's bankruptcy risk in the upcoming year. However, the main drawback of the Z-score is it does not apply to banks and insurance companies. According to Investopedia, the concept of "working capital" does not apply to banks and insurance companies, as financial institutions do not have typical current assets or current liabilities like inventories or accounts payable.
Zambia National Commercial Bank Probability of Financial Distress (%) Related Terms
LUS:ZNCO vs PNC, USB: Probability of Financial Distress (%) Comparison
For the Banks - Regional subindustry, Zambia National Commercial Bank's Probability of Financial Distress (%), along with its competitors' market caps and Probability of Financial Distress (%) data, can be viewed below:
* Competitive companies are chosen from companies within the same industry, with headquarter located in same country, with closest market capitalization; x-axis shows the market cap, and y-axis shows the term value; the bigger the dot, the larger the market cap. Note that "N/A" values will not show up in the chart.
Zambia National Commercial Bank Probability of Financial Distress (%) vs Banks Industry
For the Banks industry and Financial Services sector, Zambia National Commercial Bank's Probability of Financial Distress (%) distribution charts can be found below:
* The bar in red indicates where Zambia National Commercial Bank's Probability of Financial Distress (%) falls into.
Zambia National Commercial Bank Probability of Financial Distress (%) Calculation
Probability of Financial Distress (%) (PFD) was developed by John Campbell, Jens Hilscher and Jan Szilagyi in their Search of Distress Risk. It measures the probability that a company will go bankrupt within the next 12 months given its current financial position.
The Probability of Financial Distress (%) was obtained by a logit probability model based on eight explanatory variables. The logit formula to compute the probability of financial distress (LPFD) is given below:
LPFD
=
-20.12 * NIMTAAVG
+
1.60 * TLMTA
-
7.88 * EXRETAVG
+
1.55 * SIGMA
-
0.005 * RSIZE
-
2.27 * CASHMTA
+
0.070 * MB
-
0.09 * PRICE
-
8.87
=
-8.42
The Probability of Financial Distress (%) (PFD) was then obtianed by:
4. EXRETAVG = Excess Return compared to the S&P 500
EXRETAVG is the weighted excess return compared to the S&P 500 in past 12 month. Geometrically declining weights are imposed on the monthly excess return to reflect lagged information. The weight is halved each quarter.
5. SIGMA = Standard Deviation of Daily Returns
For sigma, we use the annualized standard deviation of a company's returns over the past 92 days (or 63 trading days).
What does a Probability of Financial Distress (%) of 0.02% mean?
Zambia National Commercial Bank (LUS:ZNCO) has a Probability of Financial Distress (%) of 0.02% as of Jul. 05, 2026.
Is Zambia National Commercial Bank's Probability of Financial Distress (%) too high?
Zambia National Commercial Bank's current Probability of Financial Distress (%) is 0.02%. Overall, Zambia National Commercial Bank has a GF Score™ of 71/100 and is considered Significantly Overvalued, reflecting its overall financial health beyond just this single metric.
How does Zambia National Commercial Bank's Probability of Financial Distress (%) compare to PNC and USB?
Zambia National Commercial Bank's Probability of Financial Distress (%) of 0.02% can be compared against companies in the Banks industry. See the competitive comparison table and distribution chart on this page for a detailed peer-by-peer breakdown.
What is a good Probability of Financial Distress (%) for a Banks company?
A good Probability of Financial Distress (%) depends on the Banks industry context. However, Probability of Financial Distress (%) should not be evaluated in isolation — investors should consider it alongside profitability, growth, and financial strength metrics. Use the industry distribution chart on this page to see where any company falls relative to its peers.
What does a high Probability of Financial Distress (%) mean?
A high Probability of Financial Distress (%) can signal that a stock is expensive relative to its fundamentals. Zambia National Commercial Bank's current Probability of Financial Distress (%) is 0.02%. However, context matters — high-growth companies often justify higher valuations. Always evaluate alongside other metrics like GF Score™ and GF Value™.
Is Zambia National Commercial Bank stock overvalued right now?
Based on GuruFocus' analysis, Zambia National Commercial Bank (LUS:ZNCO) is currently considered Significantly Overvalued. The stock's GF Value™ is ZMW6.03, compared to a current price of ZMW9.47 — trading 57% above its estimated fair value. The current Probability of Financial Distress (%) is 0.02%. Zambia National Commercial Bank's overall GF Score™ is 71/100 with 5 warning signs to review. Investors should evaluate multiple metrics — including profitability, growth, and financial strength — before making a decision.
How is Probability of Financial Distress (%) calculated?
Probability of Financial Distress (%) is calculated from a company's financial statements. For Zambia National Commercial Bank (LUS:ZNCO), the current Probability of Financial Distress (%) is 0.02% as of Jul. 05, 2026. GuruFocus calculates this using data sourced from SEC filings and annual reports. See the calculation section and 30-year financial data on this page for the full breakdown.
Is Zambia National Commercial Bank (LUS:ZNCO) Overvalued in 2026?
Based on GuruFocus' analysis, Zambia National Commercial Bank stock appears to be overvalued.
The current stock price of ZMW9.47 is trading 57% above its estimated GF Value™ of ZMW6.03.
GuruFocus considers Zambia National Commercial Bank to be Significantly Overvalued.
Key valuation signals for LUS:ZNCO:
Probability of Financial Distress (%): 0.02%
GF Value™: ZMW6.03 vs. price of ZMW9.47 (57% above fair value)
No single metric tells the full story. See the LUS:ZNCO stock analysis page for a complete view including 30-year financials, guru trades, and insider activity.
Zambia National Commercial Bank Business Description
Zambia National Commercial Bank PLC offers commercial banking services. Its principal activities include: the provision of retail, commercial Banking and related services to the general public, the provision of payment and technology solutions through the Digital Shared Services Limited (DSSL), and offering tailored insurance and risk advisory services. The company's segments include: Corporate Banking, Business Banking, Retail Banking, Digital Banking, and Treasury Management. The majority of revenue is derived from the Corporate banking segment, which provides corporate and investment banking solutions that incorporate direct debit facilities, deposit products, overdrafts, loans and other credit facilities and foreign currency solutions.
71GF Score
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