Zambia National Commercial Bank (LUS:ZNCO) Beneish M-Score: -2.57 (As of Jul. 05, 2026)


LUS:ZNCO Zambia National Commercial Bank PLC LUS:ZNCO
71 GF Score
Price ZMW9.47
GF Value ZMW6.03
Valuation Significantly Overvalued
! 5 Warning Signs
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What is Zambia National Commercial Bank Beneish M-Score?

Zambia National Commercial Bank LUS:ZNCO -0.53% 71 Beneish M-Score is -2.57 as of Jul. 05, 2026. GuruFocus rates LUS:ZNCO with a GF Score™ of 71/100 and a GF Value™ of ZMW6.03 (Significantly Overvalued). The stock has 5 warning signs investors should review. Among 1,398 Banks companies, Zambia National Commercial Bank ranks better than 78.4% on this metric.

Note: Financial institutions were excluded from the sample in Beneish paper when calculating Beneish M-Score. Thus, the prediction might not fit banks and insurance companies.

The zones of discrimination for M-Score is as such:

An M-Score of equal or less than -1.78 suggests that the company is unlikely to be a manipulator.
An M-Score of greater than -1.78 signals that the company is likely to be a manipulator.

Good Sign:

Beneish M-Score -2.57 no higher than -1.78, which implies that the company is unlikely to be a manipulator.

The historical rank and industry rank for Zambia National Commercial Bank's Beneish M-Score or its related term are showing as below:

LUS:ZNCO' s Beneish M-Score Range Over the Past 10 Years
Min: -3.76   Med: -2.57   Max: -1.39
Current: -2.57

During the past 9 years, the highest Beneish M-Score of Zambia National Commercial Bank was -1.39. The lowest was -3.76. And the median was -2.57.

LUS:ZNCO
71GF Score
Zambia National Commercial Bank PLC LUS:ZNCO
Beneish M-Score is just one metric. See GF Score™, valuation, warning signs, and more.
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Zambia National Commercial Bank Beneish M-Score Calculation

The M-score was created by Professor Messod Beneish. Instead of measuring the bankruptcy risk (Altman Z-Score) or business trend (Piotroski F-Score), M-score can be used to detect the risk of earnings manipulation. This is the original research paper on M-score.

The M-Score Variables:

The M-score of Zambia National Commercial Bank for today is based on a combination of the following eight different indices:

M=-4.84+0.92 * DSRI+0.528 * GMI+0.404 * AQI+0.892 * SGI+0.115 * DEPI
=-4.84+0.92 * 1.047+0.528 * 1+0.404 * 1.0016+0.892 * 1.1008+0.115 * 0.9421
-0.172 * SGAI+4.679 * TATA-0.327 * LVGI
-0.172 * 1.0544+4.679 * -0.068058-0.327 * 0.6678
=-2.57

* For Operating Data section: All numbers are indicated by the unit behind each term and all currency related amount are in USD.
* For other sections: All numbers are in millions except for per share data, ratio, and percentage. All currency related amount are indicated in the company's associated stock exchange currency.

This Year (Dec25) TTM:Last Year (Dec24) TTM:
Total Receivables was ZMW180 Mil.
Revenue was ZMW6,075 Mil.
Gross Profit was ZMW6,075 Mil.
Total Current Assets was ZMW0 Mil.
Total Assets was ZMW58,191 Mil.
Property, Plant and Equipment(Net PPE) was ZMW770 Mil.
Depreciation, Depletion and Amortization(DDA) was ZMW234 Mil.
Selling, General, & Admin. Expense(SGA) was ZMW1,193 Mil.
Total Current Liabilities was ZMW0 Mil.
Long-Term Debt & Capital Lease Obligation was ZMW3,408 Mil.
Net Income was ZMW1,999 Mil.
Gross Profit was ZMW0 Mil.
Cash Flow from Operations was ZMW5,959 Mil.
 Total Receivables was ZMW156 Mil.
Revenue was ZMW5,519 Mil.
Gross Profit was ZMW5,519 Mil.
Total Current Assets was ZMW0 Mil.
Total Assets was ZMW48,079 Mil.
Property, Plant and Equipment(Net PPE) was ZMW710 Mil.
Depreciation, Depletion and Amortization(DDA) was ZMW200 Mil.
Selling, General, & Admin. Expense(SGA) was ZMW1,028 Mil.
Total Current Liabilities was ZMW0 Mil.
Long-Term Debt & Capital Lease Obligation was ZMW4,216 Mil.

1. DSRI = Days Sales in Receivables Index

Measured as the ratio of Revenue in Total Receivables in year t to year t-1.

A large increase in DSR could be indicative of revenue inflation.

DSRI=(Receivables_t / Revenue_t) / (Receivables_t-1 / Revenue_t-1)
=(180.009 / 6075.131) / (156.179 / 5518.867)
=0.02963 / 0.028299
=1.047

2. GMI = Gross Margin Index

Measured as the ratio of gross margin in year t-1 to gross margin in year t.

Gross margin has deteriorated when this index is above 1. A firm with poorer prospects is more likely to manipulate earnings.

GMI=GrossMargin_t-1 / GrossMargin_t
=(GrossProfit_t-1 / Revenue_t-1) / (GrossProfit_t / Revenue_t)
=(5518.867 / 5518.867) / (6075.131 / 6075.131)
=1 / 1
=1

3. AQI = Asset Quality Index

AQI is the ratio of asset quality in year t to year t-1.

Asset quality is measured as the ratio of non-current assets other than Property, Plant and Equipment to Total Assets.

AQI=(1 - (CurrentAssets_t + PPE_t) / TotalAssets_t) / (1 - (CurrentAssets_t-1 + PPE_t-1) / TotalAssets_t-1)
=(1 - (0 + 770.055) / 58190.767) / (1 - (0 + 710.479) / 48078.761)
=0.986767 / 0.985223
=1.0016

4. SGI = Sales Growth Index

Ratio of Revenue in year t to sales in year t-1.

Sales growth is not itself a measure of manipulation. However, growth companies are likely to find themselves under pressure to manipulate in order to keep up appearances.

SGI=Sales_t / Sales_t-1
=Revenue_t / Revenue_t-1
=6075.131 / 5518.867
=1.1008

5. DEPI = Depreciation Index

Measured as the ratio of the rate of Depreciation, Depletion and Amortization in year t-1 to the corresponding rate in year t.

DEPI greater than 1 indicates that assets are being depreciated at a slower rate. This suggests that the firm might be revising useful asset life assumptions upwards, or adopting a new method that is income friendly.

DEPI=(Depreciation_t-1 / (Depreciaton_t-1 + PPE_t-1)) / (Depreciation_t / (Depreciaton_t + PPE_t))
=(199.698 / (199.698 + 710.479)) / (233.787 / (233.787 + 770.055))
=0.219406 / 0.232892
=0.9421

Note: If the Depreciation, Depletion and Amortization data is not available, we assume that the depreciation rate is constant and set the Depreciation Index to 1.

6. SGAI = Sales, General and Administrative expenses Index

The ratio of Selling, General, & Admin. Expense(SGA) to Sales in year t relative to year t-1.

SGA expenses index > 1 means that the company is becoming less efficient in generate sales.

SGAI=(SGA_t / Sales_t) / (SGA_t-1 /Sales_t-1)
=(1193.177 / 6075.131) / (1027.983 / 5518.867)
=0.196404 / 0.186267
=1.0544

7. LVGI = Leverage Index

The ratio of total debt to Total Assets in year t relative to yeat t-1.

An LVGI > 1 indicates an increase in leverage

LVGI=((LTD_t + CurrentLiabilities_t) / TotalAssets_t) / ((LTD_t-1 + CurrentLiabilities_t-1) / TotalAssets_t-1)
=((3407.531 + 0) / 58190.767) / ((4216.153 + 0) / 48078.761)
=0.058558 / 0.087693
=0.6678

8. TATA = Total Accruals to Total Assets

Total accruals calculated as the change in working capital accounts other than cash less depreciation.

TATA=(IncomefromContinuingOperations_t - CashFlowsfromOperations_t) / TotalAssets_t
=(NetIncome_t - NonOperatingIncome_t - CashFlowsfromOperations_t) / TotalAssets_t
=(1998.73 - 0 - 5959.089) / 58190.767
=-0.068058

An M-Score of equal or less than -1.78 suggests that the company is unlikely to be a manipulator. An M-Score of greater than -1.78 signals that the company is likely to be a manipulator.

Zambia National Commercial Bank has a M-score of -2.57 suggests that the company is unlikely to be a manipulator.

Frequently Asked Questions Learn more about Beneish M-Score →
What does a Beneish M-Score of -2.57 mean?
Zambia National Commercial Bank (LUS:ZNCO) has a Beneish M-Score of -2.57 as of Jul. 05, 2026. The Beneish M-score measures the likelihood of earnings manipulation. View historical data on Zambia National Commercial Bank and its competitors. According to the industry distribution chart, Zambia National Commercial Bank ranks #302 out of 1398 companies in the Banks industry, placing it in the top 21.6%.
Is Zambia National Commercial Bank's Beneish M-Score too high?
Zambia National Commercial Bank's current Beneish M-Score is -2.57. Based on the distribution chart, Zambia National Commercial Bank ranks #302 out of 1398 companies in the Banks industry, which is in the top quartile — a strong position relative to peers. Overall, Zambia National Commercial Bank has a GF Score™ of 71/100 and is considered Significantly Overvalued, reflecting its overall financial health beyond just this single metric.
How does Zambia National Commercial Bank's Beneish M-Score compare to PNC and USB?
According to the Banks industry distribution chart, Zambia National Commercial Bank ranks #302 out of 1398 companies for Beneish M-Score. This places Zambia National Commercial Bank in the top 22% of its industry — outperforming the majority of peers. See the competitive comparison table and distribution chart on this page for a detailed peer-by-peer breakdown.
What is a good Beneish M-Score for a Banks company?
A good Beneish M-Score depends on the Banks industry context. However, Beneish M-Score should not be evaluated in isolation — investors should consider it alongside profitability, growth, and financial strength metrics. Use the industry distribution chart on this page to see where any company falls relative to its peers.
What does a high Beneish M-Score mean?
A high Beneish M-Score can signal that a stock is expensive relative to its fundamentals. The Beneish M-score measures the likelihood of earnings manipulation. View historical data on Zambia National Commercial Bank and its competitors. Zambia National Commercial Bank's current Beneish M-Score is -2.57. However, context matters — high-growth companies often justify higher valuations. Always evaluate alongside other metrics like GF Score™ and GF Value™.
Is Zambia National Commercial Bank stock overvalued right now?
Based on GuruFocus' analysis, Zambia National Commercial Bank (LUS:ZNCO) is currently considered Significantly Overvalued. The stock's GF Value™ is ZMW6.03, compared to a current price of ZMW9.47 — trading 57% above its estimated fair value. The current Beneish M-Score is -2.57. Zambia National Commercial Bank's overall GF Score™ is 71/100 with 5 warning signs to review. Investors should evaluate multiple metrics — including profitability, growth, and financial strength — before making a decision.
How is Beneish M-Score calculated?
Beneish M-Score is calculated from a company's financial statements. For Zambia National Commercial Bank (LUS:ZNCO), the current Beneish M-Score is -2.57 as of Jul. 05, 2026. GuruFocus calculates this using data sourced from SEC filings and annual reports. See the calculation section and 30-year financial data on this page for the full breakdown.

Is Zambia National Commercial Bank (LUS:ZNCO) Overvalued in 2026?

Based on GuruFocus' analysis, Zambia National Commercial Bank stock appears to be overvalued. The current stock price of ZMW9.47 is trading 57% above its estimated GF Value™ of ZMW6.03. GuruFocus considers Zambia National Commercial Bank to be Significantly Overvalued.

Key valuation signals for LUS:ZNCO:

  • Beneish M-Score: -2.57
  • GF Value™: ZMW6.03 vs. price of ZMW9.47 (57% above fair value)
  • GF Score™: 71/100 with 5 warning signs

No single metric tells the full story. See the LUS:ZNCO stock analysis page for a complete view including 30-year financials, guru trades, and insider activity.

Zambia National Commercial Bank Business Description

Address Cairo Road, Plot 2118 - 2121, P.O Box 33611, Lusaka, ZMB
Zambia National Commercial Bank PLC offers commercial banking services. Its principal activities include: the provision of retail, commercial Banking and related services to the general public, the provision of payment and technology solutions through the Digital Shared Services Limited (DSSL), and offering tailored insurance and risk advisory services. The company's segments include: Corporate Banking, Business Banking, Retail Banking, Digital Banking, and Treasury Management. The majority of revenue is derived from the Corporate banking segment, which provides corporate and investment banking solutions that incorporate direct debit facilities, deposit products, overdrafts, loans and other credit facilities and foreign currency solutions.
71GF Score

Get the complete analysis for LUS:ZNCO

Beneish M-Score is just one metric. See GF Value™, 30-year financials, guru trades, warning signs, and more.

ZMW9.47
Price
ZMW6.03
GF Value