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Molson Coors Beverage Co Probability of Financial Distress (%)

: 0.11% (As of Today)
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Probability of Financial Distress (%) measures the probability that a company will go bankrupt in the upcoming year given its current financial position. A higher ratio indicates a larger probability of bankruptcy for the company, while a lower ratio indicates a healthier fundamental. As of today, Molson Coors Beverage Co's Probability of Financial Distress (%) is 0.11%.

Like the Altman Z-Score, the PFD measures a company's bankruptcy risk. However, the main drawback of the Z-score is it does not apply to banks and insurance companies. According to Investopedia, the concept of "working capital" does not apply to banks and insurance companies, as financial institutions do not have typical current assets or current liabilities like inventories or accounts payable.


Competitive Comparison

For the Beverages - Brewers subindustry, Molson Coors Beverage Co's Probability of Financial Distress (%), along with its competitors' market caps and Probability of Financial Distress (%) data, can be viewed below:

* Competitive companies are chosen from companies within the same industry, with headquarter located in same country, with closest market capitalization; x-axis shows the market cap, and y-axis shows the term value; the bigger the dot, the larger the market cap. Note that "N/A" values will not show up in the chart.

   

Molson Coors Beverage Co Probability of Financial Distress (%) Distribution

For the Beverages - Alcoholic industry and Consumer Defensive sector, Molson Coors Beverage Co's Probability of Financial Distress (%) distribution charts can be found below:

* The bar in red indicates where Molson Coors Beverage Co's Probability of Financial Distress (%) falls into.



Molson Coors Beverage Co Probability of Financial Distress (%) Calculation

Probability of Financial Distress (%) (PFD) was developed by John Campbell, Jens Hilscher and Jan Szilagyi in their Search of Distress Risk. It measures the probability that a company will go bankrupt within the next 12 months given its current financial position.

The Probability of Financial Distress (%) was obtained by a logit probability model based on eight explanatory variables. The logit formula to compute the probability of financial distress (LPFD) is given below:

LPFD= -20.12 * NIMTAAVG + 1.60 * TLMTA - 7.88 * EXRETAVG + 1.55 * SIGMA - 0.005 * RSIZE - 2.27 * CASHMTA + 0.070 * MB - 0.09 * PRICE -8.87
=-6.82

The Probability of Financial Distress (%) (PFD) was then obtianed by:

PFD=1/(1 + e^(-LPFD))*100%
=0.11%

The eight explanatory variables are:

1. NIMTAAVG = Net Income to Market Total Assets

NIMTAAVG=Net Income / Market Total Assets
=Net Income / (Market Cap + Total Liabilities)

*Note that for companies reported quarterly, geometrically declining weighted quarterly Net Income data in latest four quarters are used.

2. TLMTA = Total liabilities to Market Total Assets

TLMTA=Total Liabilities / Market Total Assets

3. CASHMTA = Cash to Market Total Assets

For non-financial companies, CASHMTA is measured as:

CASHMTA=Cash, Cash Equivalents, Marketable Securities / Market Total Assets

4. EXRETAVG = Excess Return compared to the S&P 500

EXRETAVG is the weighted excess return compared to the S&P 500 in past 12 month. Geometrically declining weights are imposed on the monthly excess return to reflect lagged information. The weight is halved each quarter.

5. SIGMA = Standard Deviation of Daily Returns

For sigma, we use the annualized standard deviation of a company's returns over the past 92 days (or 63 trading days).

6. RSIZE = Relative Size

RSIZE=log (Market Cap / Total Market Cap of S&P 500 companies)

7. MB = Market to Adjusted Book Equity Ratio


8. PRICE

PRICE is measured as the log of the stock price, capped at log(15).


Molson Coors Beverage Co  (NYSE:TAP) Probability of Financial Distress (%) Explanation

Like the Altman Z-Score, the PFD measures a company's bankruptcy risk in the upcoming year. However, the main drawback of the Z-score is it does not apply to banks and insurance companies. According to Investopedia, the concept of "working capital" does not apply to banks and insurance companies, as financial institutions do not have typical current assets or current liabilities like inventories or accounts payable.


Molson Coors Beverage Co Probability of Financial Distress (%) Related Terms

Thank you for viewing the detailed overview of Molson Coors Beverage Co's Probability of Financial Distress (%) provided by GuruFocus.com. Please click on the following links to see related term pages.


Molson Coors Beverage Co Business Description

Molson Coors Beverage Co logo
Industry
Address
NH353, P.O. Box 4030, Golden, CO, USA, 80401
Molson Coors is the fifth- largest beer producer globally, boasting top-two positioning in the U.S., Canada, and many Central European markets. It brews and markets a slew of company-owned brands including Blue Moon, Coors, Miller, Vizzy, and Staropramen. It also sells various partner brands in certain locales such as Topo Chico (licensed from Coca-Cola), Amstel and Dos Equis in Canada (through an exclusive import/license arrangement with Heineken) and Corona in Central Europe (through an agreement with Anheuser-Busch InBev). The firm's go-to-market approach differs by geography as well, primarily using independent distributors in the U.S., but deploying hybrid models in Canada and Europe.
Executives
Herington Charles M director 1801 CALIFORNIA STREET, SUITE 4600 DENVER CO 80202
Eaton Roger G. director 1441 GARDINER LANE LOUISVILLE KY 40213
Napier Iain J G director 1801 CALIFORNIA STREET, SUITE 4600 DENVER CO 80202
Tough Douglas D. director 1801 CALIFORNIA STREET, SUITE 4600 DENVER CO 80202
Vachon Louis director 1155 METCALFE STREET MONTREAL QUEBEC CANADA E6 0000
Coors Peter H director, 10 percent owner, other: Vice Chairman of the Board 1801 CALIFORNIA STREET, SUITE 4600 DENVER CO 80202
Coors David S. director P.O. BOX 4030 NH353 GOLDEN CO 80401
Winnefeld James A Jr director 870 WINTER STREET WALTHAM MA 02451
Fergusonmchugh Marylynn director ONE PROCTER & GAMBLE PLAZA CINCINNATI OH 45202
Molson Andrew Thomas director, other: Chairman of the Board 1801 CALIFORNIA STREET, SUITE 4600 DENVER CO 80202
Riley H Sanford director 1801 CALIFORNIA STREET, SUITE 4600 DENVER CO 80202
Molson Geoffrey E. director 1801 CALIFORNIA STREET, SUITE 4600 DENVER CO 80202
Hobbs Franklin W Iv director 1801 CALIFORNIA STREET, SUITE 4600 DENVER CO 80202
Cox Simon officer: Pres&CEO, Molson Coors Europe 1801 CALIFORNIA STREET, SUITE 4600 DENVER CO 80202
Tabolt Brian officer: VP,Controller & Chf Acct Off 1801 CALIFORNIA STREET, SUITE 4600 DENVER CO 80202

Molson Coors Beverage Co Headlines

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