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Progressive (NYSE:PGR) Probability of Financial Distress (%)

: 0.01% (As of Today)
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Probability of Financial Distress (%) measures the probability that a company will go bankrupt in the upcoming year given its current financial position. A higher ratio indicates a larger probability of bankruptcy for the company, while a lower ratio indicates a healthier fundamental. As of today, Progressive's Probability of Financial Distress (%) is 0.01%.

Like the Altman Z-Score, the PFD measures a company's bankruptcy risk. However, the main drawback of the Z-score is it does not apply to banks and insurance companies. According to Investopedia, the concept of "working capital" does not apply to banks and insurance companies, as financial institutions do not have typical current assets or current liabilities like inventories or accounts payable.


Progressive (NYSE:PGR) Probability of Financial Distress (%) Competitive Comparison

For the Insurance - Property & Casualty subindustry, Progressive's Probability of Financial Distress (%), along with its competitors' market caps and Probability of Financial Distress (%) data, can be viewed below:

* Competitive companies are chosen from companies within the same industry, with headquarter located in same country, with closest market capitalization; x-axis shows the market cap, and y-axis shows the term value; the bigger the dot, the larger the market cap. Note that "N/A" values will not show up in the chart.

   

Progressive (NYSE:PGR) Probability of Financial Distress (%) Distribution

For the Insurance industry and Financial Services sector, Progressive's Probability of Financial Distress (%) distribution charts can be found below:

* The bar in red indicates where Progressive's Probability of Financial Distress (%) falls into.



Progressive Probability of Financial Distress (%) Calculation

Probability of Financial Distress (%) (PFD) was developed by John Campbell, Jens Hilscher and Jan Szilagyi in their Search of Distress Risk. It measures the probability that a company will go bankrupt within the next 12 months given its current financial position.

The Probability of Financial Distress (%) was obtained by a logit probability model based on eight explanatory variables. The logit formula to compute the probability of financial distress (LPFD) is given below:

LPFD= -20.12 * NIMTAAVG + 1.60 * TLMTA - 7.88 * EXRETAVG + 1.55 * SIGMA - 0.005 * RSIZE - 2.27 * CASHMTA + 0.070 * MB - 0.09 * PRICE -8.87
=-9.15

The Probability of Financial Distress (%) (PFD) was then obtianed by:

PFD=1/(1 + e^(-LPFD))*100%
=0.01%

The eight explanatory variables are:

1. NIMTAAVG = Net Income to Market Total Assets

NIMTAAVG=Net Income / Market Total Assets
=Net Income / (Market Cap + Total Liabilities)

*Note that for companies reported quarterly, geometrically declining weighted quarterly Net Income data in latest four quarters are used.

2. TLMTA = Total liabilities to Market Total Assets

TLMTA=Total Liabilities / Market Total Assets

3. CASHMTA = Cash to Market Total Assets

For insurance companies, CASHMTA is measured as:


4. EXRETAVG = Excess Return compared to the S&P 500

EXRETAVG is the weighted excess return compared to the S&P 500 in past 12 month. Geometrically declining weights are imposed on the monthly excess return to reflect lagged information. The weight is halved each quarter.

5. SIGMA = Standard Deviation of Daily Returns

For sigma, we use the annualized standard deviation of a company's returns over the past 92 days (or 63 trading days).

6. RSIZE = Relative Size

RSIZE=log (Market Cap / Total Market Cap of S&P 500 companies)

7. MB = Market to Adjusted Book Equity Ratio


8. PRICE

PRICE is measured as the log of the stock price, capped at log(15).


Progressive  (NYSE:PGR) Probability of Financial Distress (%) Explanation

Like the Altman Z-Score, the PFD measures a company's bankruptcy risk in the upcoming year. However, the main drawback of the Z-score is it does not apply to banks and insurance companies. According to Investopedia, the concept of "working capital" does not apply to banks and insurance companies, as financial institutions do not have typical current assets or current liabilities like inventories or accounts payable.


Progressive Probability of Financial Distress (%) Related Terms

Thank you for viewing the detailed overview of Progressive's Probability of Financial Distress (%) provided by GuruFocus.com. Please click on the following links to see related term pages.


Progressive (NYSE:PGR) Business Description

Progressive logo
Industry
Address
6300 Wilson Mills Road, Mayfield Village, OH, USA, 44143
Progressive underwrites private and commercial auto insurance and specialty lines; it has over 20 million personal auto policies in force and is the fourth- largest auto insurer in the United States. Progressive markets its policies through independent insurance agencies in the U.S. and Canada and directly via the internet and telephone. Its premiums are split roughly equally between the agent and the direct channel. The company also offers commercial auto policies and entered homeowners insurance through an acquisition in 2015.
Executives
Craig Pamela director C/O ACCENTURE 161 N CLARK STREET CHICAGO IL 60601
Clawson William L. Ii officer: Chief Human Resources Officer C/O THE PROGRESSIVE CORPORATION 6300 WILSON MILLS ROAD MAYFIELD VILLAGE OH 44143
Kent Remi officer: Chief Marketing Officer 6300 WILSON MILLS ROAD MAYFIELD VILLAGE OH 44143
Bauer Jonathan S. officer: Chief Investment Officer 6300 WILSON MILLS ROAD MAYFIELD VILLAGE OH 44143
Marshall Mariann Wojtkun officer: Chief Accounting Officer C/O THE PROGRESSIVE CORPORATION 6300 WILSON MILLS RD. MAYFIELD VILLAGE OH 44143
Tighe Jan E director C/O GOLDMAN SACHS & CO. LLC 200 WEST STREET NEW YORK NY 10282
Snyder Barbara R director 127 PUBLIC SQUARE CLEVELAND OH 44114
Quigg Andrew J officer: Chief Strategy Officer C/O THE PROGRESSIVE CORPORATION 6300 WILSON MILLS ROAD MAYFIELD VILLAGE OH 44143
Bleser Philip director 8760 CLAY ROAD SUITE 100 HOUSTON TX 77494
Broz Steven officer: Chief Information Officer C/O THE PROGRESSIVE CORPORATION 6300 WILSON MILLS ROAD MAYFIELD VILLAGE OH 44143
Niederst Lori A officer: CRM President C/O THE PROGRESSIVE CORPORATION 6300 WILSON MILLS ROAD MAYFIELD VILLAGE OH 44143
Bailo Karen officer: Commercial Lines President 6300 WILSON MILLS ROAD MAYFIELD VILLAGE OH 44143
Mascaro Daniel P officer: Vice Pres, Secretary and CLO C/O THE PROGRESSIVE CORPORATION 6300 WILSON MILLS ROAD MAYFIELD VILLAGE OH 44143
Murphy John Jo officer: Claims President C/O THE PROGRESSIVE CORPORATION 6300 WILSON MILLS ROAD MAYFIELD VILLAGE OH 44143
Callahan Patrick K officer: Personal Lines President C/O THE PROGRESSIVE CORPORATION 6300 WILSON MILLS ROAD MAYFIELD VILLAGE OH 44143

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