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Probability of Financial Distress (%) measures the probability that a company will go bankrupt in the upcoming year given its current financial position. A higher ratio indicates a larger probability of bankruptcy for the company, while a lower ratio indicates a healthier fundamental. As of today, Sow Good's Probability of Financial Distress (%) is 1.10%.
Like the Altman Z-Score, the PFD measures a company's bankruptcy risk. However, the main drawback of the Z-score is it does not apply to banks and insurance companies. According to Investopedia, the concept of "working capital" does not apply to banks and insurance companies, as financial institutions do not have typical current assets or current liabilities like inventories or accounts payable.
For the Packaged Foods subindustry, Sow Good's Probability of Financial Distress (%), along with its competitors' market caps and Probability of Financial Distress (%) data, can be viewed below:
* Competitive companies are chosen from companies within the same industry, with headquarter located in same country, with closest market capitalization; x-axis shows the market cap, and y-axis shows the term value; the bigger the dot, the larger the market cap. Note that "N/A" values will not show up in the chart.
For the Consumer Packaged Goods industry and Consumer Defensive sector, Sow Good's Probability of Financial Distress (%) distribution charts can be found below:
* The bar in red indicates where Sow Good's Probability of Financial Distress (%) falls into.
Probability of Financial Distress (%) (PFD) was developed by John Campbell, Jens Hilscher and Jan Szilagyi in their Search of Distress Risk. It measures the probability that a company will go bankrupt within the next 12 months given its current financial position.
The Probability of Financial Distress (%) was obtained by a logit probability model based on eight explanatory variables. The logit formula to compute the probability of financial distress (LPFD) is given below:
LPFD | = | -20.12 * NIMTAAVG | + | 1.60 * TLMTA | - | 7.88 * EXRETAVG | + | 1.55 * SIGMA | - | 0.005 * RSIZE | - | 2.27 * CASHMTA | + | 0.070 * MB | - | 0.09 * PRICE | - | 8.87 |
= | -4.50 |
The Probability of Financial Distress (%) (PFD) was then obtianed by:
PFD | = | 1 | / | (1 + e^(-LPFD)) | * | 100% |
= | 1.10% |
The eight explanatory variables are:
1. NIMTAAVG = Net Income to Market Total Assets
NIMTAAVG | = | Net Income | / | Market Total Assets |
= | Net Income | / | (Market Cap + Total Liabilities) |
*Note that for companies reported quarterly, geometrically declining weighted quarterly Net Income data in latest four quarters are used.
2. TLMTA = Total liabilities to Market Total Assets
TLMTA | = | Total Liabilities | / | Market Total Assets |
3. CASHMTA = Cash to Market Total Assets
For non-financial companies, CASHMTA is measured as:
CASHMTA | = | Cash, Cash Equivalents, Marketable Securities | / | Market Total Assets |
4. EXRETAVG = Excess Return compared to the S&P 500
EXRETAVG is the weighted excess return compared to the S&P 500 in past 12 month. Geometrically declining weights are imposed on the monthly excess return to reflect lagged information. The weight is halved each quarter.
5. SIGMA = Standard Deviation of Daily Returns
For sigma, we use the annualized standard deviation of a company's returns over the past 92 days (or 63 trading days).
6. RSIZE = Relative Size
RSIZE | = | log (Market Cap | / | Total Market Cap of S&P 500 companies) |
7. MB = Market to Adjusted Book Equity Ratio
MB | = | Market Cap | / | Adjusted Book Equity |
= | Market Cap | / | (Total Stockholders Equity + 0.1 * ( Market Cap - Total Stockholders Equity)) |
8. PRICE
PRICE is measured as the log of the stock price, capped at log(15).
Sow Good (NAS:SOWG) Probability of Financial Distress (%) Explanation
Like the Altman Z-Score, the PFD measures a company's bankruptcy risk in the upcoming year. However, the main drawback of the Z-score is it does not apply to banks and insurance companies. According to Investopedia, the concept of "working capital" does not apply to banks and insurance companies, as financial institutions do not have typical current assets or current liabilities like inventories or accounts payable.
Thank you for viewing the detailed overview of Sow Good's Probability of Financial Distress (%) provided by GuruFocus.com. Please click on the following links to see related term pages.
Ira Goldfarb | director, 10 percent owner, officer: Executive Chairman (1) | 1918 N. OLIVE ST, DALLAS TX 75201 |
Claudia Goldfarb | director, 10 percent owner, officer: Chief Executive Officer (2) | 1918 N. OLIVE STREET, APT. 3302, DALLAS TX 75201 |
Lyle Berman | director, 10 percent owner | 10275 WAYZATA BOULEVARD, SUITE 100, MINNETONKA MN 55305 |
Brad Berman | director, 10 percent owner | C/O LAKES ENTERTAINMENT, INC., 130 CHESHIRE LANE, MINNETONKA MN 55305 |
Joe Mueller | director | 6927 ALTAMONTE DRIVE, ROGERS AR 72758 |
Timothy James Creed | director | 3418 GOLF CLUB LN., NASHVILLE TN 37215 |
Brad Burke | officer: Interim CFO | 4049 PURDUE AVE, DALLAS TX 77225 |
Chris Ludeman | director | 6154 PARK LANE, DALLAS TX 75225 |
Greg Creed | director | 1441 GARDINER LANE, LOUISVILLE KY 40213 |
S-fdf, Llc | 10 percent owner | 1440 N. UNION BOWER RD., IRVIN TX 75061 |
Benjamin S Oehler | director | 10275 WAYZATA BLVD. SUITE 100, MINNETONKA MN 55305 |
Joseph J Lahti | director | 2975 SOMERSET LANE, LONG LAKE MN 55356 |
Kenneth Decubellis | officer: Chief Executive Officer | 10275 WAYZATA BOULEVARD, SUITE 310, MINNETONKA MN 55305 |
Neil I Sell | 10 percent owner | 3300 WELLS FARGO CENTER, 90 SOUTH 7TH STREET, MINNEAPOLIS MN 55402 |
Michael Eisele | officer: Chief Operating Officer | 10275 WAYZATA BOULEVARD, MINNETONKA MN 55305 |
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