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Morgan StanleyXSWX:MS 74 Intrinsic Value: DCF (Earnings Based) is CHF182.32 as of Jul. 27, 2026, which is 100% below its 10-year median of 0.59. GuruFocus rates XSWX:MS with a GF Score™ of 74/100 and a GF Value™ of CHF126.71. The stock has 8 warning signs investors should review. Among 100 Capital Markets companies, Morgan Stanley ranks worse than 59% on this metric.
Note: Discounted Earnings model is only suitable for predictable companies (Business Predictability Rank higher than 1-Star). If the company's predictability rank is 1-Star or Not Rated, result may not be accurate due to the low predictability of business and the data will not be stored into our database.
The historical rank and industry rank for Morgan Stanley's Intrinsic Value: DCF (Earnings Based) or its related term are showing as below:
XSWX:MS'
s Price-to-DCF (Earnings Based) Range Over the Past 10 Years
Min: 0.26 Med: 0.59 Max: 0.96
Current: 0.96
During the past 13 years, the highest Price-to-Intrinsic-Value-DCF (Earnings Based) Ratio of Morgan Stanley was 0.96. The lowest was 0.26. And the median was 0.59.
XSWX:MS's Price-to-DCF (Earnings Based) is ranked worse than 59% of 100
companies
in the Capital Markets industry
Industry Median: 0.77
vs XSWX:MS: 0.96
Morgan Stanley (XSWX:MS) Intrinsic Value: DCF (Earnings Based) Explanation
Unlike valuation methods such as Net Current Asset Value, Tangible Book Value per Share, Graham Number, Median Ratio etc, discounted Cash Flow model evaluates the companies based on their future earnings power instead of their assets.
Be Aware
What you need to know about Discounted Earnings model:
1. The Discounted Earnings model evaluates a company based on its future earnings power
2. Growth is taken into account; therefore a faster growth company is worth more if everything else is the same.
3. Since we are projecting future growth, it is assumed that the company will grow at the same rate as it did during the past 10 years. Therefore this model works better for the companies that are relatively consistent performers.
4. The Discounted Earnings model works poorly for inconsistent performers like cyclicals.
5. Your expected return from the investment is a reasonable discount rate assumption.
6. A larger margin of safety should be required for companies with less predictable businesses.
You can screen for stocks that trade below their Intrinsic Value: DCF (FCF Based) and Intrinsic Value: DCF (Earnings Based) with the GuruFocus All-in-One Screener. Companies with a high Predictability Rank that trade at a discount to their Intrinsic Value: DCF (FCF Based) and Intrinsic Value: DCF (Earnings Based) can be found in the screen of Undervalued Predictable Companies.
Morgan Stanley Intrinsic Value: DCF (Earnings Based) Related Terms
Morgan Stanley Intrinsic Value: DCF (Earnings Based) Historical Data
* Premium members only.
The historical data trend for Morgan Stanley's Intrinsic Value: DCF (Earnings Based) can be seen below:
* For Operating Data section: All numbers are indicated by the unit behind each term and all currency related amount are in USD. * For other sections: All numbers are in millions except for per share data, ratio, and percentage. All currency related amount are indicated in the company's associated stock exchange currency.
Morgan Stanley Intrinsic Value: DCF (Earnings Based) Chart
For the Capital Markets subindustry, Morgan Stanley's Price-to-DCF (Earnings Based), along with its competitors' market caps and Price-to-DCF (Earnings Based) data, can be viewed below:
* Competitive companies are chosen from companies within the same industry, with headquarter located in same country, with closest market capitalization; x-axis shows the market cap, and y-axis shows the term value; the bigger the dot, the larger the market cap. Note that "N/A" values will not show up in the chart.
Morgan Stanley Price-to-DCF (Earnings Based) vs Capital Markets Industry
For the Capital Markets industry and Financial Services sector, Morgan Stanley's Price-to-DCF (Earnings Based) distribution charts can be found below:
* The bar in red indicates where Morgan Stanley's Price-to-DCF (Earnings Based) falls into.
Morgan Stanley Intrinsic Value: DCF (Earnings Based) Calculation
This is the intrinsic value calculated from the Discounted Earnings model with default parameters. The calculation method is the same as Discounted Cash Flow model except earnings are used in the calculation instead of free cash flow. This is the default method of calculation with GuruFocus DCF calculator.
Usually a two-stage model is used in calculating the intrinsic value with discounted cash flow model. The first stage is called growth stage; the second is called the terminal stage. In the growth stage the company grows at a faster rate. Because it cannot grow at that rate forever, a lower rate is used for the terminal stage.
GuruFocus DCF calculator is a two-stage model. The default values are defined as:
1. Discount Rate: d = 11% A reasonable discount rate assumption should be at least the long term average return of the stock market, which can be estimated from risk free rate plus risk premium of stock market. GuruFocus uses 10-Year Treasury Constant Maturity Rate as the risk-free rate and rounded up to the nearest integer. It is updated daily. The current risk-free rate is 4.65%. Please go to Economic Indicators page for more information. Please note that we use the 10-Year Treasury Constant Maturity Rate of the country/region where the company is headquartered. If the data for that country/region is not available, then we will use the 10-Year Treasury Constant Maturity Rate of the United States as default. Then we added a risk premium of 6% to get the estimated discount rate. Some investors use their expected rate of return, which is also reasonable. A typical discount rate can be anywhere between 6% - 20%.
2. Growth Rate in the growth stage: g1 = 12.10%
The Growth Rate in the growth stage is initially set as the default 10-Year EPS without NRI Growth Rate. In cases where the 10-year growth rate is unavailable, it defaults to using the 5-Year EPS without NRI Growth Rate. If both the 10-year and 5-year growth rates are unavailable, the system defaults to the 3-Year EPS without NRI Growth Rate.
However, it's important to note that there is a growth rate range. If the calculated growth rate exceeds 20%, it will be capped at 20%. Conversely, if the calculated growth rate falls below 5%, it will be adjusted to 5% to maintain a reasonable range.
=>
Morgan Stanley's average EPS without NRI Growth Rate in the past
10 years was 12.10%,
which is between 5% and 20%. => GuruFocus defaults => Growth Rate: 12.10%
3. Years of Growth Stage: y1 = 10
4. Terminal Growth Rate: g2 = 4%
5. Years of Terminal Growth: y2 = 10
6. EPS without NRI: eps without nri = CHF9.903. GuruFocus DCF calculator is actually a Discounted Earnings calculator, EPS without NRI is used as the default. The reason we are doing this is we found that historically stock prices are more correlated with earnings than free cash flow.
All of the default settings can be changed and the results are calculated automatically.
Morgan Stanley's Intrinsic Value: DCF (Earnings Based) for today is calculated as:
* For Operating Data section: All numbers are indicated by the unit behind each term and all currency related amount are in USD. * For other sections: All numbers are in millions except for per share data, ratio, and percentage. All currency related amount are indicated in the company's associated stock exchange currency.
What does a Intrinsic Value: DCF (Earnings Based) of CHF182.32 mean?
Morgan Stanley (XSWX:MS) has a Intrinsic Value: DCF (Earnings Based) of CHF182.32 as of Jul. 27, 2026. Intrinsic Value: DCF (Earnings Based) is the stock value based on a two-stage discounted earnings model. View historical data on Morgan Stanley and its competitors. This is 30802% above median its historical median of 0.59. Over the past decade, Morgan Stanley's Intrinsic Value: DCF (Earnings Based) has ranged from 0.26 to 0.96. According to the industry distribution chart, Morgan Stanley ranks #59 out of 100 companies in the Capital Markets industry, placing it in the top 59%.
Is Morgan Stanley's Intrinsic Value: DCF (Earnings Based) too high?
Morgan Stanley's current Intrinsic Value: DCF (Earnings Based) of CHF182.32 is 30802% above median its 10-year median of 0.59. Over the past 10 years, this metric has ranged from a low of 0.26 to a high of 0.96. Based on the distribution chart, Morgan Stanley ranks #59 out of 100 companies in the Capital Markets industry, which is below the industry midpoint. Overall, Morgan Stanley has a GF Score™ of 74/100, reflecting its overall financial health beyond just this single metric.
How does Morgan Stanley's Intrinsic Value: DCF (Earnings Based) compare to GS and SCHW?
According to the Capital Markets industry distribution chart, Morgan Stanley ranks #59 out of 100 companies for Intrinsic Value: DCF (Earnings Based). This places Morgan Stanley in the lower half of its industry. The industry median Intrinsic Value: DCF (Earnings Based) is 0.77. Historically, Morgan Stanley's own Intrinsic Value: DCF (Earnings Based) has ranged from 0.26 to 0.96 over the past decade. See the competitive comparison table and distribution chart on this page for a detailed peer-by-peer breakdown.
What is a good Intrinsic Value: DCF (Earnings Based) for a Capital Markets company?
The median Intrinsic Value: DCF (Earnings Based) among Capital Markets companies is 0.77, based on 100 companies in the industry. Companies in the top quartile (top 25%) have a Intrinsic Value: DCF (Earnings Based) significantly above this median, while those in the bottom quartile fall well below. However, Intrinsic Value: DCF (Earnings Based) should not be evaluated in isolation — investors should consider it alongside profitability, growth, and financial strength metrics. Use the industry distribution chart on this page to see where any company falls relative to its peers.
What does a high Intrinsic Value: DCF (Earnings Based) mean?
A high Intrinsic Value: DCF (Earnings Based) can signal that a stock is expensive relative to its fundamentals. Intrinsic Value: DCF (Earnings Based) is the stock value based on a two-stage discounted earnings model. View historical data on Morgan Stanley and its competitors. For the Capital Markets industry, the median Intrinsic Value: DCF (Earnings Based) is 0.77 — values significantly above this may indicate overvaluation, while values below may suggest a bargain or underlying issues. Morgan Stanley's current Intrinsic Value: DCF (Earnings Based) is CHF182.32, which is 30802% above median its own 10-year median of 0.59. However, context matters — high-growth companies often justify higher valuations. Always evaluate alongside other metrics like GF Score™ and GF Value™.
Is Morgan Stanley stock overvalued right now?
Morgan Stanley (XSWX:MS) has a current Intrinsic Value: DCF (Earnings Based) of CHF182.32. The stock's GF Value™ is CHF126.71, compared to a current price of CHF175.28 — trading 38.3% above its estimated fair value. The current Intrinsic Value: DCF (Earnings Based) is CHF182.32, which is 30802% above median its 10-year median of 0.59. Morgan Stanley's overall GF Score™ is 74/100 with 8 warning signs to review. Investors should evaluate multiple metrics — including profitability, growth, and financial strength — before making a decision.
How is Intrinsic Value: DCF (Earnings Based) calculated?
Intrinsic Value: DCF (Earnings Based) is calculated from a company's financial statements. For Morgan Stanley (XSWX:MS), the current Intrinsic Value: DCF (Earnings Based) is CHF182.32 as of Jul. 27, 2026. GuruFocus calculates this using data sourced from SEC filings and annual reports. See the calculation section and 30-year financial data on this page for the full breakdown.
Is Morgan Stanley (XSWX:MS) Overvalued in 2026?
Based on GuruFocus' analysis, Morgan Stanley stock appears to be overvalued.
The current stock price of CHF175.28 is trading 38.3% above its estimated GF Value™ of CHF126.71.
Key valuation signals for XSWX:MS:
Intrinsic Value: DCF (Earnings Based): CHF182.32 (30802% above median its 10-year median of 0.59)
GF Value™: CHF126.71 vs. price of CHF175.28 (38.3% above fair value)
No single metric tells the full story. See the XSWX:MS stock analysis page for a complete view including 30-year financials, guru trades, and insider activity.
Morgan Stanley is a massive global financial services firm, with offices in 42 countries and more than 82,000 employees as of year-end 2025. The firm cut its teeth in investment banking and institutional trading, where it maintains a strong presence today, but generates the lion share of its income from wealth and asset management franchises, where it boasted $9.3 trillion in client assets at the end of 2025. After reincorporation as a bank holding company in the wake of the global financial crisis, Morgan Stanley also boasts a top 10 banking franchise by deposits, with more than $400 billion in customer deposits, predominately attributable to cash sweeps from its wealth management and brokerage businesses.
74GF Score
Get the complete analysis for XSWX:MS
Intrinsic Value: DCF (Earnings Based) is just one metric. See GF Value™, 30-year financials, guru trades, warning signs, and more.
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