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Morgan StanleyXSWX:MS 74 Forward Rate of Return (Yacktman) % is 0.33% as of Mar. 2026, which is 97% below its 10-year median of 11.27. GuruFocus rates XSWX:MS with a GF Score™ of 74/100 and a GF Value™ of CHF123.70. The stock has 8 warning signs investors should review. Among 520 Capital Markets companies, Morgan Stanley ranks worse than 64.04% on this metric.
Yacktman defines forward rate of return as the normalized free cash flow yield plus real growth plus inflation. Morgan Stanley's forward rate of return for was 0.33%.
The historical rank and industry rank for Morgan Stanley's Forward Rate of Return (Yacktman) % or its related term are showing as below:
XSWX:MS'
s Forward Rate of Return (Yacktman) % Range Over the Past 10 Years
Min: -4.96 Med: 11.27 Max: 32.15
Current: 1.16
During the past 13 years, Morgan Stanley's highest Forward Rate of Return was 32.15. The lowest was -4.96. And the median was 11.27.
XSWX:MS's Forward Rate of Return (Yacktman) % is ranked worse than 64.04% of 520
companies
in the Capital Markets industry
Industry Median: 9.385
vs XSWX:MS: 1.16
Unlike the Earnings Yield %, the Forward Rate of Return uses the normalized Free Cash Flow of the past five years, and considers growth. The forward rate of return can be thought of as the return that investors buying the stock today can expect from it in the future.
Morgan Stanley (XSWX:MS) Forward Rate of Return (Yacktman) % Explanation
Unlike the Earnings Yield, the Forward Rate of Return uses the normalized Free Cash Flow of the past five years, and considers growth. The forward rate of return can be thought of as the return that investors buying the stock today can expect from it in the future.
For the growth part of the Forward Rate of Return calculation, GuruFocus uses the 5-year average growth rate of Book Value per share as the growth rate, and the growth rate is always capped at 20%. For the Free Cash Flow we use per share data averaged over five years. The reason we use five years is to make it comparable to the growth rate.
Be Aware
In the Forward Rate of Return calculation, the growth rate is added directly to today's free cash flow yield. Therefore the calculation is reliable only if the company can grow at the same rate in the future as it did in the past. Investors should pay close attention to this when researching growth stocks. A more accurate measurement for return is Return on Capital.
Morgan Stanley Forward Rate of Return (Yacktman) % Related Terms
Morgan Stanley Forward Rate of Return (Yacktman) % Historical Data
* Premium members only.
The historical data trend for Morgan Stanley's Forward Rate of Return (Yacktman) % can be seen below:
* For Operating Data section: All numbers are indicated by the unit behind each term and all currency related amount are in USD. * For other sections: All numbers are in millions except for per share data, ratio, and percentage. All currency related amount are indicated in the company's associated stock exchange currency.
Morgan Stanley Forward Rate of Return (Yacktman) % Chart
XSWX:MS vs GS, SCHW, HOOD: Forward Rate of Return (Yacktman) % Comparison
For the Capital Markets subindustry, Morgan Stanley's Forward Rate of Return (Yacktman) %, along with its competitors' market caps and Forward Rate of Return (Yacktman) % data, can be viewed below:
* Competitive companies are chosen from companies within the same industry, with headquarter located in same country, with closest market capitalization; x-axis shows the market cap, and y-axis shows the term value; the bigger the dot, the larger the market cap. Note that "N/A" values will not show up in the chart.
Morgan Stanley Forward Rate of Return (Yacktman) % vs Capital Markets Industry
For the Capital Markets industry and Financial Services sector, Morgan Stanley's Forward Rate of Return (Yacktman) % distribution charts can be found below:
* The bar in red indicates where Morgan Stanley's Forward Rate of Return (Yacktman) % falls into.
Morgan Stanley Forward Rate of Return (Yacktman) % Calculation
Forward Rate of Return is a concept that Don Yacktman uses in his investment approach. Yacktman explained the forward rate of return concept in detail in his interview with GuruFocus. Yacktman defines forward rate of return as the normalized free cash flow yield plus real growth plus inflation. He said in the interview (March 2012, when the S&P 500 was at about 1400):
If the business is stable, this calculation is fairly straightforward. For instance, on the S&P 500 we would normalize earnings. We would then calculate what percentage of those earnings are not reinvested in the underlying businesses and are therefore free. Historically, for the S&P 500, this has been just under 50% of earnings. Currently, we expect the S&P to earn about 70 on a normalized basis, a number which is far below reported earnings due to our adjusting for record high profit margins. $70 X ½ / 1400 gives you a normalized free cash flow yield of approximately 2.5%.
The historical real growth rate of the S&P 500 (companies) is about 1.5%. Assuming an inflation rate of 2.5%, the forward rate of return on an investment in the S&P 500 is about 6.5% today (2.5% free cash flow yield plus 1.5% real growth plus 2.5% inflation).
* For Operating Data section: All numbers are indicated by the unit behind each term and all currency related amount are in USD. * For other sections: All numbers are in millions except for per share data, ratio, and percentage. All currency related amount are indicated in the company's associated stock exchange currency.
What does a Forward Rate of Return (Yacktman) % of 0.33% mean?
Morgan Stanley (XSWX:MS) has a Forward Rate of Return (Yacktman) % of 0.33% as of Mar. 2026. Yacktman's forward rate of return equals the sum of normalized free-cash-flow yield plus earnings growth. View historical data on Morgan Stanley and its competitors. This is 97% below median its historical median of 11.27. According to the industry distribution chart, Morgan Stanley ranks #333 out of 520 companies in the Capital Markets industry, placing it in the top 64%.
Is Morgan Stanley's Forward Rate of Return (Yacktman) % too high?
Morgan Stanley's current Forward Rate of Return (Yacktman) % of 0.33% is 97% below median its 10-year median of 11.27. The Capital Markets industry median Forward Rate of Return (Yacktman) % is 9.39. Morgan Stanley's value of 0.33% is 96.5% below this industry median. Based on the distribution chart, Morgan Stanley ranks #333 out of 520 companies in the Capital Markets industry, which is below the industry midpoint. Overall, Morgan Stanley has a GF Score™ of 74/100, reflecting its overall financial health beyond just this single metric.
How does Morgan Stanley's Forward Rate of Return (Yacktman) % compare to GS and SCHW?
According to the Capital Markets industry distribution chart, Morgan Stanley ranks #333 out of 520 companies for Forward Rate of Return (Yacktman) %. This places Morgan Stanley in the lower half of its industry. The industry median Forward Rate of Return (Yacktman) % is 9.39. Morgan Stanley's value of 0.33% is 96.5% below this benchmark. While the company's 10-year median is 11.27 vs. the industry median of 9.39, Morgan Stanley has consistently been below the industry average. See the competitive comparison table and distribution chart on this page for a detailed peer-by-peer breakdown.
What is a good Forward Rate of Return (Yacktman) % for a Capital Markets company?
The median Forward Rate of Return (Yacktman) % among Capital Markets companies is 9.39, based on 520 companies in the industry. Companies in the top quartile (top 25%) have a Forward Rate of Return (Yacktman) % significantly above this median, while those in the bottom quartile fall well below. However, Forward Rate of Return (Yacktman) % should not be evaluated in isolation — investors should consider it alongside profitability, growth, and financial strength metrics. Morgan Stanley's current Forward Rate of Return (Yacktman) % of 0.33% is 96.5% below the industry median. Use the industry distribution chart on this page to see where any company falls relative to its peers.
What does a high Forward Rate of Return (Yacktman) % mean?
A high Forward Rate of Return (Yacktman) % can signal that a stock is expensive relative to its fundamentals. Yacktman's forward rate of return equals the sum of normalized free-cash-flow yield plus earnings growth. View historical data on Morgan Stanley and its competitors. For the Capital Markets industry, the median Forward Rate of Return (Yacktman) % is 9.39 — values significantly above this may indicate overvaluation, while values below may suggest a bargain or underlying issues. Morgan Stanley's current Forward Rate of Return (Yacktman) % is 0.33%, which is 97% below median its own 10-year median of 11.27. However, context matters — high-growth companies often justify higher valuations. Always evaluate alongside other metrics like GF Score™ and GF Value™.
Is Morgan Stanley stock overvalued right now?
Morgan Stanley (XSWX:MS) has a current Forward Rate of Return (Yacktman) % of 0.33%. The stock's GF Value™ is CHF123.70, compared to a current price of CHF175.14 — trading 41.6% above its estimated fair value. The current Forward Rate of Return (Yacktman) % is 0.33%, which is 97% below median its 10-year median of 11.27 and 96.5% below the Capital Markets industry median of 9.39. Morgan Stanley's overall GF Score™ is 74/100 with 8 warning signs to review. Investors should evaluate multiple metrics — including profitability, growth, and financial strength — before making a decision.
How is Forward Rate of Return (Yacktman) % calculated?
Forward Rate of Return (Yacktman) % is calculated from a company's financial statements. For Morgan Stanley (XSWX:MS), the current Forward Rate of Return (Yacktman) % is 0.33% as of Mar. 2026. GuruFocus calculates this using data sourced from SEC filings and annual reports. See the calculation section and 30-year financial data on this page for the full breakdown.
Is Morgan Stanley (XSWX:MS) Overvalued in 2026?
Based on GuruFocus' analysis, Morgan Stanley stock appears to be overvalued.
The current stock price of CHF175.14 is trading 41.6% above its estimated GF Value™ of CHF123.70.
Key valuation signals for XSWX:MS:
Forward Rate of Return (Yacktman) %: 0.33% (97% below median its 10-year median of 11.27)
GF Value™: CHF123.70 vs. price of CHF175.14 (41.6% above fair value)
Industry Position: 96.5% below the Capital Markets median (#333 of 520)
No single metric tells the full story. See the XSWX:MS stock analysis page for a complete view including 30-year financials, guru trades, and insider activity.
Morgan Stanley is a massive global financial services firm, with offices in 42 countries and more than 82,000 employees as of year-end 2025. The firm cut its teeth in investment banking and institutional trading, where it maintains a strong presence today, but generates the lion share of its income from wealth and asset management franchises, where it boasted $9.3 trillion in client assets at the end of 2025. After reincorporation as a bank holding company in the wake of the global financial crisis, Morgan Stanley also boasts a top 10 banking franchise by deposits, with more than $400 billion in customer deposits, predominately attributable to cash sweeps from its wealth management and brokerage businesses.
74GF Score
Get the complete analysis for XSWX:MS
Forward Rate of Return (Yacktman) % is just one metric. See GF Value™, 30-year financials, guru trades, warning signs, and more.
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