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STEC, (FRA:XTC) Intrinsic Value: DCF (FCF Based) : €-14.40 (As of Sep. 24, 2024)


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What is STEC, Intrinsic Value: DCF (FCF Based)?

As of today (2024-09-24), STEC,'s intrinsic value calculated from the Discounted Cash Flow model is €-14.40.

Note: Discounted Cash Flow model is only suitable for predictable companies (Business Predictability Rank higher than 1-Star). If the company's predictability rank is 1-Star or Not Rated, result may not be accurate due to the low predictability of business and the data will not be stored into our database.

STEC,'s Predictability Rank is Not Rated. Thus, this page is only used for demonstration purposes and the DCF related results in the screener and portfolio will appear as zero.

Margin of Safety (FCF Based) using Discounted Cash Flow model for STEC, is N/A.

The industry rank for STEC,'s Intrinsic Value: DCF (FCF Based) or its related term are showing as below:

FRA:XTC's Price-to-DCF (FCF Based) is not ranked *
in the Hardware industry.
Industry Median: 1.005
* Ranked among companies with meaningful Price-to-DCF (FCF Based) only.

STEC, Intrinsic Value: DCF (FCF Based) Historical Data

The historical data trend for STEC,'s Intrinsic Value: DCF (FCF Based) can be seen below:

* For Operating Data section: All numbers are indicated by the unit behind each term and all currency related amount are in USD.
* For other sections: All numbers are in millions except for per share data, ratio, and percentage. All currency related amount are indicated in the company's associated stock exchange currency.

* Premium members only.

STEC, Intrinsic Value: DCF (FCF Based) Chart

STEC, Annual Data
Trend Dec03 Dec04 Dec05 Dec06 Dec07 Dec08 Dec09 Dec10 Dec11 Dec12
Intrinsic Value: DCF (FCF Based)
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STEC, Quarterly Data
Sep08 Dec08 Mar09 Jun09 Sep09 Dec09 Mar10 Jun10 Sep10 Dec10 Mar11 Jun11 Sep11 Dec11 Mar12 Jun12 Sep12 Dec12 Mar13 Jun13
Intrinsic Value: DCF (FCF Based) Get a 7-Day Free Trial Premium Member Only Premium Member Only Premium Member Only Premium Member Only Premium Member Only Premium Member Only Premium Member Only Premium Member Only Premium Member Only Premium Member Only Premium Member Only Premium Member Only - - - - -

Competitive Comparison of STEC,'s Intrinsic Value: DCF (FCF Based)

For the Computer Hardware subindustry, STEC,'s Price-to-DCF (FCF Based), along with its competitors' market caps and Price-to-DCF (FCF Based) data, can be viewed below:

* Competitive companies are chosen from companies within the same industry, with headquarter located in same country, with closest market capitalization; x-axis shows the market cap, and y-axis shows the term value; the bigger the dot, the larger the market cap. Note that "N/A" values will not show up in the chart.


STEC,'s Price-to-DCF (FCF Based) Distribution in the Hardware Industry

For the Hardware industry and Technology sector, STEC,'s Price-to-DCF (FCF Based) distribution charts can be found below:

* The bar in red indicates where STEC,'s Price-to-DCF (FCF Based) falls into.



STEC, Intrinsic Value: DCF (FCF Based) Calculation

This is the intrinsic value calculated from the Discounted Cash Flow model with default parameters. In a discounted cash flow model, the future cash flow is estimated based on a cash flow growth rate and a discount rate. The cash flow of the future is discounted to its current value at the discount rate. All of the discounted future cash flow is added together to get the current intrinsic value of the company.

Usually a two-stage model is used when calculating a stock's intrinsic value using a discounted cash flow model. The first stage is called the growth stage; the second is called the terminal stage. In the growth stage the company grows at a faster rate. Because it cannot grow at that rate forever, a lower rate is used for the terminal stage.

GuruFocus DCF calculator is a two-stage model. The default values are defined as:

1. Discount Rate: d = 10%
A reasonable discount rate assumption should be at least the long term average return of the stock market, which can be estimated from risk free rate plus risk premium of stock market. GuruFocus uses 10-Year Treasury Constant Maturity Rate as the risk-free rate and rounded up to the nearest integer. It is updated daily. The current risk-free rate is 3.79%. Please go to Economic Indicators page for more information. Please note that we use the 10-Year Treasury Constant Maturity Rate of the country/region where the company is headquartered. If the data for that country/region is not available, then we will use the 10-Year Treasury Constant Maturity Rate of the United States as default. Then we added a risk premium of 6% to get the estimated discount rate. Some investors use their expected rate of return, which is also reasonable. A typical discount rate can be anywhere between 6% - 20%.

2. Growth Rate in the growth stage: g1 = 5%
The Growth Rate in the growth stage is initially set as the default 10-Year FCF Growth Rate (Per Share). In cases where the 10-year growth rate is unavailable, it defaults to using the 5-Year FCF Growth Rate (Per Share). If both the 10-year and 5-year growth rates are unavailable, the system defaults to the 3-Year FCF Growth Rate (Per Share).
However, it's important to note that there is a growth rate range. If the calculated growth rate exceeds 20%, it will be capped at 20%. Conversely, if the calculated growth rate falls below 5%, it will be adjusted to 5% to maintain a reasonable range.
=> STEC,'s average Free Cash Flow Growth Rate in the past 3 years was 0.00%, which is less than 5%. GuruFocus defaults => Growth Rate: 5%

3. Years of Growth Stage: y1 = 10

4. Terminal Growth Rate: g2 = 4%

5. Years of Terminal Growth: y2 = 10

6. Free Cash Flow per Share: fcf = €-1.153.
However, GuruFocus DCF calculator is actually a Discounted Earnings calculator, the EPS without NRI is used as the default. The reason we are doing this is we found that historically stock prices are more correlated with earnings than free cash flow.

All of the default settings can be changed and the results are calculated automatically.

STEC,'s Intrinsic Value: DCF (FCF Based) for today is calculated as

Intrinsic Value: DCF (FCF Based)=Free Cash Flow per Share*{[(1+g1)/(1+d)+(1+g1)^2/(1+d)^2+...+(1+g1)^10/(1+d)^10]
+(1+g1)^10/(1+d)^10*[(1+g2)/(1+d)+(1+g2)^2/(1+d)^2+...+(1+g2)^10/(1+d)^10]}

set x = (1+g1)/(1+d) = (1+0.05)/(1+0.1) = 0.95454545454545
and y = (1+g2)/(1+d) = (1+0.04)/(1+0.1) = 0.94545454545455

Intrinsic Value: DCF (FCF Based)=Free Cash Flow per Share*{[x+x^2+...+x^10]+x^10*[y+y^2+...+y^10]}
=Free Cash Flow per Share*[x*(1-x^10)/(1-x)+x^10*y*(1-y^10)/(1-y)]
=-1.153*12.485
=-14.40

Margin of Safety (FCF Based)=(Intrinsic Value: DCF (FCF Based)-Current Price)/Intrinsic Value: DCF (FCF Based)
=(-14.4-5.08)/-14.4
=N/A

* For Operating Data section: All numbers are indicated by the unit behind each term and all currency related amount are in USD.
* For other sections: All numbers are in millions except for per share data, ratio, and percentage. All currency related amount are indicated in the company's associated stock exchange currency.


STEC,  (FRA:XTC) Intrinsic Value: DCF (FCF Based) Explanation

Unlike valuation methods such as Net Current Asset Value, Tangible Book per Share, Graham Number, Median PS Value etc, discounted Cash Flow model evaluates the companies based on their future earnings power instead of their assets.


Be Aware

What you need to know about the DCF model:

1. The DCF model evaluates a company based on its future earnings power
2. Growth is taken into account; therefore a faster growth company is worth more if everything else is the same.
3. Since we are projecting future growth, it is assumed that the company will grow at the same rate as it did during the past 10 years. Therefore this model works better for the companies that have relatively consistent performance.
4. The DCF model works poorly for inconsistent performers such as cyclicals.
5. What discount rate should you use? Your expected return from the investment is a good discount rate assumption.
6. A larger margin of safety should be required for companies with less predictable businesses.

You can screen for stocks that trade below their Intrinsic Value: DCF (FCF Based) and Intrinsic Value: DCF (Earnings Based) with the GuruFocus All-in-One Screener. Companies with a high Predictability Rank that trade at a discount to their Intrinsic Value: DCF (FCF Based) and Intrinsic Value: DCF (Earnings Based) can be found in the screen of Undervalued Predictable Companies.


STEC, Intrinsic Value: DCF (FCF Based) Related Terms

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STEC, Business Description

Industry
GURUFOCUS.COM » STOCK LIST » Technology » Hardware » STEC, Inc. (FRA:XTC) » Definitions » Intrinsic Value: DCF (FCF Based)
Traded in Other Exchanges
N/A
Address
STEC, Inc., was incorporated in 1990 in the state of California. It provides enterprise-class Flash solid-state drives that are designed to increase the performance of enterprise-storage systems and servers that companies use to retain and access their critical data. Its products are designed for storage systems and servers that run applications requiring a high level of input/output operations per second ('IOPS') performance, capacity, reliability and low latency. The Company designs and develops its SSD controllers, enhance them with proprietary firmware and combine them with third-party Flash memory to form high-performance SSDs which provide a level of IOPS performance not currently possible with traditional hard disk drives ('HDDs'). The Company sells its SSDs to global storage and server original equipment manufacturers ('OEMs') which integrate them into storage systems and servers used by enterprises in a variety of industries including financial services, government, transportation, defense and aerospace, and transaction processing. It also manufactures small form factor Flash SSDs, cards and modules, as well as custom high density dynamic random access memory ('DRAM') modules for networking, communications and industrial applications. The Company markets its products to OEMs, leveraging its comprehensive design capabilities to offer custom storage solutions to address their specific needs. A major area of its Flash-based product investment has been applied to SSD technology. It also offers both monolithic DRAM modules and DRAM modules based on its proprietary stacking technology. The Company also offers both monolithic DRAM modules and DRAM modules based on its proprietary stacking technology. The Company's ZeusIOPS SSDs are high performance enterprise-class data storage solutions. Its MACH-class SSDs are small form factor, high throughput storage solutions for mission-critical systems in a variety of industries. The Company's Industrial Grade Advanced Technology Attachment ('ATA') PC Cards are viable alternatives to HDDs due to their high reliability and low cost per useable megabyte. CompactFlash products provide full PC Card ATA functionality but are only one-fourth the size of a standard PC Card. Its flash module products include USB and Serial ATA interfaces and are targeted toward embedded systems where device footprint and low power are critical design parameters. The Company's Secure Digital ('SD') Flash Memory Cards are small, removable and non-volatile flash memory with a high performance interface. Its USB flash drive built upon an industrial-grade flash controller technology has capacity of 1GB to 8GB, its USB Flash Drive couples convenience and portability with performance and reliability. The Company offers DRAM products, including dual in-line memory modules ('DIMMs'), small-outline DIMMs, mini-registered DIMMs, very low profile registered DIMMs ('VLP RDIMMs') and Fully-Buffered DIMMs ('FB-DIMMs'). Its pat

STEC, Headlines

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