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Molson Coors Beverage Co (NYSE:TAP) Intrinsic Value: DCF (Earnings Based)

: $-14.86 (As of Today)
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As of today (2023-06-09), Molson Coors Beverage Co's intrinsic value calculated from the Discounted Earnings model is $-14.86.

Note: Discounted Earnings model is only suitable for predictable companies (Business Predictability Rank higher than 1-Star). If the company's predictability rank is 1-Star or Not Rated, result may not be accurate due to the low predictability of business and the data will not be stored into our database.

Molson Coors Beverage Co's Predictability Rank is 1-Star. Thus, this page is only used for demonstration purposes and the DCF related results in the screener and portfolio will appear as zero.

Margin of Safety (Earnings Based) using Discounted Earnings model for Molson Coors Beverage Co is N/A.

The historical rank and industry rank for Molson Coors Beverage Co's Intrinsic Value: DCF (Earnings Based) or its related term are showing as below:

During the past 13 years, the highest Price-to-Intrinsic-Value-DCF (Earnings Based) Ratio of Molson Coors Beverage Co was 1.34. The lowest was 0.57. And the median was 1.07.

TAP's Price-to-DCF (Earnings Based) is not ranked *
in the Beverages - Alcoholic industry.
Industry Median: 1.16
* Ranked among companies with meaningful Price-to-DCF (Earnings Based) only.

Molson Coors Beverage Co Intrinsic Value: DCF (Earnings Based) Historical Data

The historical data trend for Molson Coors Beverage Co's Intrinsic Value: DCF (Earnings Based) can be seen below:

* For Operating Data section: All numbers are indicated by the unit behind each term and all currency related amount are in USD.
* For other sections: All numbers are in millions except for per share data, ratio, and percentage. All currency related amount are indicated in the company's associated stock exchange currency.

* Premium members only.

Molson Coors Beverage Co Annual Data
Trend Dec13 Dec14 Dec15 Dec16 Dec17 Dec18 Dec19 Dec20 Dec21 Dec22
Intrinsic Value: DCF (Earnings Based)
Premium Member Only Premium Member Only Premium Member Only Premium Member Only Premium Member Only - - - - -

Molson Coors Beverage Co Quarterly Data
Jun18 Sep18 Dec18 Mar19 Jun19 Sep19 Dec19 Mar20 Jun20 Sep20 Dec20 Mar21 Jun21 Sep21 Dec21 Mar22 Jun22 Sep22 Dec22 Mar23
Intrinsic Value: DCF (Earnings Based) Premium Member Only Premium Member Only Premium Member Only Premium Member Only Premium Member Only Premium Member Only Premium Member Only Premium Member Only Premium Member Only Premium Member Only Premium Member Only Premium Member Only Premium Member Only Premium Member Only Premium Member Only - - - - -

Molson Coors Beverage Co Intrinsic Value: DCF (Earnings Based) Calculation

This is the intrinsic value calculated from the Discounted Earnings model with default parameters. The calculation method is the same as Discounted Cash Flow model except earnings are used in the calculation instead of free cash flow. This is the default method of calculation with GuruFocus DCF calculator.

Usually a two-stage model is used in calculating the intrinsic value with discounted cash flow model. The first stage is called growth stage; the second is called the terminal stage. In the growth stage the company grows at a faster rate. Because it cannot grow at that rate forever, a lower rate is used for the terminal stage.

GuruFocus DCF calculator is a two-stage model. The default values are defined as:

1. Discount Rate: d = 10%
A reasonable discount rate assumption should be at least the long term average return of the stock market, which can be estimated from risk free rate plus risk premium of stock market. We used the 10-Year Treasury Constant Maturity Rate as the risk free rate and rounded up to the nearest integer, then added a risk premium of 6% to get the estimated discount rate. Some investors use their expected rate of return, which is also reasonable. A typical discount rate can be anywhere between 6% - 20%.

2. Growth Rate in the growth stage: g1 = 5%
Growth Rate in the growth stage = average earnings growth rate in the past 10 years. If it is higher than 20%, we use 20%. If it is less than 5%, we use 5% instead. => For companies with Average Earnings Growth Rate in the past 10 years less than 5%, GuruFocus defaults => Growth Rate: 5%

3. Years of Growth Stage: y1 = 10

4. Terminal Growth Rate: g2 = 4%

5. Years of Terminal Growth: y2 = 10

6. EPS without NRI: eps without nri = $-1.190.
GuruFocus DCF calculator is actually a Discounted Earnings calculator, EPS without NRI is used as the default. The reason we are doing this is we found that historically stock prices are more correlated with earnings than free cash flow.

All of the default settings can be changed and the results are calculated automatically.

Molson Coors Beverage Co's Intrinsic Value: DCF (Earnings Based) for today is calculated as:

Intrinsic Value: DCF (Earnings Based)=EPS without NRI*{[(1+g1)/(1+d)+(1+g1)^2/(1+d)^2+...+(1+g1)^10/(1+d)^10]
+(1+g1)^10/(1+d)^10*[(1+g2)/(1+d)+(1+g2)^2/(1+d)^2+...+(1+g2)^10/(1+d)^10]}

set x = (1+g1)/(1+d) = (1+0.05)/(1+0.1) = 0.95454545454545
and y = (1+g2)/(1+d) = (1+0.04)/(1+0.1) = 0.94545454545455

Intrinsic Value: DCF (Earnings Based)=EPS without NRI*{[x+x^2+...+x^10]+x^10*[y+y^2+...+y^10]}
=EPS without NRI*[x*(1-x^10)/(1-x)+x^10*y*(1-y^10)/(1-y)]
=-1.190*12.485
=-14.86

Margin of Safety % (DCF Earnings Based)=(Intrinsic Value: DCF (Earnings Based)-Current Price)/Intrinsic Value: DCF (Earnings Based)
=(-14.86-66.40)/-14.86
=N/A

* For Operating Data section: All numbers are indicated by the unit behind each term and all currency related amount are in USD.
* For other sections: All numbers are in millions except for per share data, ratio, and percentage. All currency related amount are indicated in the company's associated stock exchange currency.


Molson Coors Beverage Co  (NYSE:TAP) Intrinsic Value: DCF (Earnings Based) Explanation

Unlike valuation methods such as Net Current Asset Value, Tangible Book Value per Share, Graham Number, Median Ratio etc, discounted Cash Flow model evaluates the companies based on their future earnings power instead of their assets.


Be Aware

What you need to know about Discounted Earnings model:

1. The Discounted Earnings model evaluates a company based on its future earnings power
2. Growth is taken into account; therefore a faster growth company is worth more if everything else is the same.
3. Since we are projecting future growth, it is assumed that the company will grow at the same rate as it did during the past 10 years. Therefore this model works better for the companies that are relatively consistent performers.
4. The Discounted Earnings model works poorly for inconsistent performers like cyclicals.
5. Your expected return from the investment is a reasonable discount rate assumption.
6. A larger margin of safety should be required for companies with less predictable businesses.

You can screen for stocks that trade below their Intrinsic Value: DCF (FCF Based) and Intrinsic Value: DCF (Earnings Based) with the GuruFocus All-in-One Screener. Companies with a high Predictability Rank that trade at a discount to their Intrinsic Value: DCF (FCF Based) and Intrinsic Value: DCF (Earnings Based) can be found in the screen of Undervalued Predictable Companies.


Molson Coors Beverage Co Intrinsic Value: DCF (Earnings Based) Related Terms

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Molson Coors Beverage Co (NYSE:TAP) Business Description

Molson Coors Beverage Co logo
Traded in Other Exchanges
Address
NH353, P.O. Box 4030, Golden, CO, USA, 80401
Molson Coors is the fifth-largest beer producer globally, boasting top-two positioning in the U.S., Canada, and United Kingdom. It brews and markets a slew of company-owned brands including Blue Moon, Coors, Miller, Vizzy, and Staropramen. It also sells various partner brands in certain locales, including Topo Chico (licensed from Coca-Cola), Amstel and Dos Equis in Canada (through an exclusive import/license arrangement with Heineken), and Corona in Central Europe (through an agreement with Anheuser-Busch InBev). The firm's go-to-market approach differs by geography as well, primarily using independent distributors in the U.S. but deploying hybrid models in Canada and Europe.
Executives
Williams Leroy James Jr director 10 LONGS PEAK DRIVE, BROOMFIELD CO 80021-2510
Anne-marie W D'angelo officer: Chief Legal & Govt Affairs Off 801 E. 86TH AVENUE, MERRILLVILLE IN 46410
Julia M Brown director C/O ABLE BRANDS CO., 30 HUDSON YARDS, NEW YORK NY 10001
Roxanne Stelter officer: VP,Controller & Chf Acct Off 3939 W HIGHLAND BLVD, MILWAUKEE WI 53208
Winnefeld James A Jr director 870 WINTER STREET, WALTHAM MA 02451
David S. Coors director P.O. BOX 4030, NH353, GOLDEN CO 80401
Nessa O'sullivan director P.O. BOX 4030, NH353, GOLDEN CO 80401
Peter John Marino officer: President of Emerging Growth 250 SOUTH WACKER DRIVE, CHICAGO IL 60606
Jacques Michelle St. officer: Chief Marketing Officer 250 SOUTH WACKER DRIVE, CHICAGO IL 60606
E. Lee Reichert officer: Chief Legal & Corp Affairs Off 1801 CALIFORNIA STREET, SUITE 4600, DENVER CO 80202
Sergey Yeskov officer: Pres&CEO, Molson Coors Int'l 1801 CALIFORNIA STREET, SUITE 4600, DENVER CO 80202
Tracey Joubert officer: Chief Financial Officer 1801 CALIFORNIA STREET, SUITE 4600, DENVER CO 80202
Frederic Landtmeters officer: Pres&CEO, Molson Coors Canada 1801 CALIFORNIA STREET, SUITE 4600, DENVER CO 80202
Michelle Nettles officer: Chief People&Diversity Off MANPOWERGROUP INC., 100 MANPOWER PLACE, MILWAUKEE WI 53212
Betty K Devita director 1801 CALIFORNIA STREET, SUITE 4600, DENVER CO 80202

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