3M Co (NYSE:MMM) Intrinsic Value: DCF (FCF Based)

: $90.24 (As of Today)

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As of today (2023-06-03), 3M Co's intrinsic value calculated from the Discounted Cash Flow model is $90.24.

Note: Discounted Cash Flow model is only suitable for predictable companies (Business Predictability Rank higher than 1-Star). If the company's predictability rank is 1-Star or Not Rated, result may not be accurate due to the low predictability of business and the data will not be stored into our database.

3M Co's Predictability Rank is 3-Stars.

Margin of Safety (FCF Based) using Discounted Cash Flow model for 3M Co is -13.62%.

The industry rank for 3M Co's Intrinsic Value: DCF (FCF Based) or its related term are showing as below:

MMM's Price-to-DCF (FCF Based) is ranked worse than
67.44% of 43 companies
in the Conglomerates industry
Industry Median: 0.62 vs MMM: 1.14

3M Co Intrinsic Value: DCF (FCF Based) Historical Data

The historical data trend for 3M Co's Intrinsic Value: DCF (FCF Based) can be seen below:

* For Operating Data section: All numbers are indicated by the unit behind each term and all currency related amount are in USD.
* For other sections: All numbers are in millions except for per share data, ratio, and percentage. All currency related amount are indicated in the company's associated stock exchange currency.

* Premium members only.

3M Co Annual Data

Trend

Dec13

Dec14

Dec15

Dec16

Dec17

Dec18

Dec19

Dec20

Dec21

Dec22

Intrinsic Value: DCF (FCF Based)

120.39

142.39

210.93

169.47

84.94

3M Co Quarterly Data
	Jun18	Sep18	Dec18	Mar19	Jun19	Sep19	Dec19	Mar20	Jun20	Sep20	Dec20	Mar21	Jun21	Sep21	Dec21	Mar22	Jun22	Sep22	Dec22	Mar23
Intrinsic Value: DCF (FCF Based)																134.54	115.29	96.11	84.94	90.24

3M Co Intrinsic Value: DCF (FCF Based) Calculation

This is the intrinsic value calculated from the Discounted Cash Flow model with default parameters. In a discounted cash flow model, the future cash flow is estimated based on a cash flow growth rate and a discount rate. The cash flow of the future is discounted to its current value at the discount rate. All of the discounted future cash flow is added together to get the current intrinsic value of the company.

Usually a two-stage model is used when calculating a stock's intrinsic value using a discounted cash flow model. The first stage is called the growth stage; the second is called the terminal stage. In the growth stage the company grows at a faster rate. Because it cannot grow at that rate forever, a lower rate is used for the terminal stage.

GuruFocus DCF calculator is a two-stage model. The default values are defined as:

1. Discount Rate: d = 10%
A reasonable discount rate assumption should be at least the long term average return of the stock market, which can be estimated from risk free rate plus risk premium of stock market. We used the 10-Year Treasury Constant Maturity Rate as the risk free rate and rounded up to the nearest integer, then added a risk premium of 6% to get the estimated discount rate. Some investors use their expected rate of return, which is also reasonable. A typical discount rate can be anywhere between 6% - 20%.

2. Growth Rate in the growth stage: g1 = 5%
Growth Rate in the growth stage = average free cash flow growth rate in the past 10 years. If it is higher than 20%, we use 20%. If it is less than 5%, we use 5% instead. => For companies with Average Free Cash Flow Growth Rate in the past 10 years less than 5%, GuruFocus defaults => Growth Rate: 5%

3. Years of Growth Stage: y1 = 10

4. Terminal Growth Rate: g2 = 4%

5. Years of Terminal Growth: y2 = 10

6. Free Cash Flow per Share: fcf = $7.228.
However, GuruFocus DCF calculator is actually a Discounted Earnings calculator, the EPS without NRI is used as the default. The reason we are doing this is we found that historically stock prices are more correlated with earnings than free cash flow.

All of the default settings can be changed and the results are calculated automatically.

3M Co's Intrinsic Value: DCF (FCF Based) for today is calculated as

Intrinsic Value: DCF (FCF Based)	=	Free Cash Flow per Share	*	{[(1+g1)/(1+d)	+	(1+g1)^2/(1+d)^2	+	...	+	(1+g1)^10/(1+d)^10]
	+	(1+g1)^10/(1+d)^10	*	[(1+g2)/(1+d)	+	(1+g2)^2/(1+d)^2	+	...	+	(1+g2)^10/(1+d)^10]}

set x = (1+g1)/(1+d) = (1+0.05)/(1+0.1) = 0.95454545454545
and y = (1+g2)/(1+d) = (1+0.04)/(1+0.1) = 0.94545454545455

Intrinsic Value: DCF (FCF Based)

Free Cash Flow per Share

{[x

x^2

...

x^10]

x^10

y^2

...

y^10]}

Free Cash Flow per Share

(1-x^10)

(1-x)

x^10

(1-y^10)

(1-y)]

7.228

12.485

90.24

Margin of Safety (FCF Based)	=	(Intrinsic Value: DCF (FCF Based)	-	Current Price)	/	Intrinsic Value: DCF (FCF Based)
	=	(90.24	-	102.53)	/	90.24
	=	-13.62 %

3M Co (NYSE:MMM) Intrinsic Value: DCF (FCF Based) Explanation

Unlike valuation methods such as Net Current Asset Value, Tangible Book per Share, Graham Number, Median PS Value etc, discounted Cash Flow model evaluates the companies based on their future earnings power instead of their assets.

Be Aware

What you need to know about the DCF model:

1. The DCF model evaluates a company based on its future earnings power
2. Growth is taken into account; therefore a faster growth company is worth more if everything else is the same.
3. Since we are projecting future growth, it is assumed that the company will grow at the same rate as it did during the past 10 years. Therefore this model works better for the companies that have relatively consistent performance.
4. The DCF model works poorly for inconsistent performers such as cyclicals.
5. What discount rate should you use? Your expected return from the investment is a good discount rate assumption.
6. A larger margin of safety should be required for companies with less predictable businesses.

You can screen for stocks that trade below their Intrinsic Value: DCF (FCF Based) and Intrinsic Value: DCF (Earnings Based) with the GuruFocus All-in-One Screener. Companies with a high Predictability Rank that trade at a discount to their Intrinsic Value: DCF (FCF Based) and Intrinsic Value: DCF (Earnings Based) can be found in the screen of Undervalued Predictable Companies.

3M Co Intrinsic Value: DCF (FCF Based) Related Terms

Thank you for viewing the detailed overview of 3M Co's Intrinsic Value: DCF (FCF Based) provided by GuruFocus.com. Please click on the following links to see related term pages.

3M Co (NYSE:MMM) Business Description

Industry

GURUFOCUS.COM » STOCK LIST » Industrials » Conglomerates » 3M Co (NYSE:MMM) » Definitions » Intrinsic Value: DCF (FCF Based)

Comparable Companies

Traded in Other Exchanges

MMM:Mexico MMM:Germany MMM:Switzerland MMMC34:Brazil MMM:Austria MMM:Argentina

Address

3M Center, St. Paul, MN, USA, 55144

Website

https://www.3m.com

3M is a multinational conglomerate that has operated since 1902, when it was known as Minnesota Mining and Manufacturing. The company is well known for its research and development laboratory and it leverages its science and technology across multiple product categories. As of 2020, 3M is organized into four business segments: safety and industrial, transportation and electronics, healthcare, and consumer. Nearly 50% of the company's revenue comes from outside the Americas, with the safety and industrial segment constituting a plurality of net sales. Many of the company's 60,000-plus products touch and concern a variety of consumers and end markets.

Executives

Suzan Kereere	director	255 FISERV DRIVE, BROOKFIELD WI 53045
Kevin H Rhodes	officer: EVP & Chief Legal Officer	3M COMPANY, 3M CENTER, BLDG 220-09-E-02, ST. PAUL MN 55144-1000
Peter D Gibbons	officer: Group President	2401 UTAH AVENUE SOUTH, SUITE 800, SEATTLE WA 98134
Chavez Rodriguez Beatriz Karina	officer: Senior Vice President	3M COMPANY, 3M CENTER BLDG 220-09-E-02, ST. PAUL MN 55144-1000
Mark W. Murphy	officer: Executive Vice President	ONE ST. JUDE MEDICAL DRIVE, ST. PAUL MN 55117
Zoe L Dickson	officer: Executive Vice President	3M COMPANY, 3M CENTER, BLDG 220 09 E-02, ST. PAUL MN 55144-1000
James R Fitterling	director	2211 H.H. DOW WAY, MIDLAND MI 48674
Jeffrey R Lavers	officer: Executive Vice President	3M COMPANY, 3M CENTER, BLDG 220 09 E-02, ST. PAUL MN 55144-1000
Veena M Lakkundi	officer: Senior Vice President	3M COMPANY, 3M CENTER, BLDG 220 09 E-02, ST. PAUL MN 55144-1000
Monish D Patolawala	officer: Senior VP and CFO	3M COMPANY, 3M CENTER, BLDG 220 09 E-02, ST. PAUL MN 55144-1000
Vinita Lee Piper	other: IVM001	712 WILCREST, SUITE 3020, HOUSTON TX 77042
Pamela Craig	director	C/O ACCENTURE, 161 N CLARK STREET, CHICAGO IL 60601
Ty R Silberhorn	officer: Senior Vice President	3M COMPANY OFFICE OF GENERAL COUNSEL, 3M CENTER, ST PAUL MN 55144-1000
Theresa E Reinseth	officer: Vice President/CAO	3M COMPANY OFFICE OF GENERAL COUNSEL, 3M CENTER, ST PAUL MN 55144-1000
Denise R Rutherford	officer: Senior Vice President	3M COMPANY OFFICE OF GENERAL COUNSEL, 3M CENTER, ST PAUL MN 55144-1000