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Ameriprise Financial Intrinsic Value: DCF (FCF Based)

: $171.66 (As of Today)
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As of today (2021-10-28), Ameriprise Financial's intrinsic value calculated from the Discounted Cash Flow model is $171.66.

Note: Discounted Cash Flow model is only suitable for predictable companies (Business Predictability Rank higher than 1-Star). If the company's predictability rank is 1-Star or Not Rated, result may not be accurate due to the low predictability of business and the data will not be stored into our database.

Ameriprise Financial's Predictability Rank is 3.5-Stars.

Margin of Safety (FCF Based) using Discounted Cash Flow model for Ameriprise Financial is -72.62%.


Ameriprise Financial Intrinsic Value: DCF (FCF Based) Historical Data

The historical data trend for Ameriprise Financial's Intrinsic Value: DCF (FCF Based) can be seen below:

* For Operating Data section: All numbers are indicated by the unit behind each term and all currency related amount are in USD.
* For other sections: All numbers are in millions except for per share data, ratio, and percentage. All currency related amount are indicated in the company's associated stock exchange currency.

* Premium members only.

Ameriprise Financial Annual Data
Trend Dec11 Dec12 Dec13 Dec14 Dec15 Dec16 Dec17 Dec18 Dec19 Dec20
Intrinsic Value: DCF (FCF Based)
Premium Member Only Premium Member Only Premium Member Only Premium Member Only Premium Member Only - - - 237.26 1,124.67

Ameriprise Financial Quarterly Data
Sep16 Dec16 Mar17 Jun17 Sep17 Dec17 Mar18 Jun18 Sep18 Dec18 Mar19 Jun19 Sep19 Dec19 Mar20 Jun20 Sep20 Dec20 Mar21 Jun21
Intrinsic Value: DCF (FCF Based) Premium Member Only Premium Member Only Premium Member Only Premium Member Only Premium Member Only Premium Member Only Premium Member Only Premium Member Only Premium Member Only Premium Member Only Premium Member Only Premium Member Only Premium Member Only Premium Member Only Premium Member Only 716.32 664.81 1,124.67 -338.23 171.66

Ameriprise Financial Intrinsic Value: DCF (FCF Based) Calculation

This is the intrinsic value calculated from the Discounted Cash Flow model with default parameters. In a discounted cash flow model, the future cash flow is estimated based on a cash flow growth rate and a discount rate. The cash flow of the future is discounted to its current value at the discount rate. All of the discounted future cash flow is added together to get the current intrinsic value of the company.

Usually a two-stage model is used when calculating a stock's intrinsic value using a discounted cash flow model. The first stage is called the growth stage; the second is called the terminal stage. In the growth stage the company grows at a faster rate. Because it cannot grow at that rate forever, a lower rate is used for the terminal stage.

GuruFocus DCF calculator is a two-stage model. The default values are defined as:

1. Discount Rate: d = 8%
A reasonable discount rate assumption should be at least the long term average return of the stock market, which can be estimated from risk free rate plus risk premium of stock market. We used the 10-Year Treasury Constant Maturity Rate as the risk free rate and rounded up to the nearest integer, then added a risk premium of 6% to get the estimated discount rate. Some investors use their expected rate of return, which is also reasonable. A typical discount rate can be anywhere between 6% - 20%.

2. Growth Rate in the growth stage: g1 = 14.80%
Growth Rate in the growth stage = average free cash flow growth rate in the past 10 years. If it is higher than 20%, we use 20%. If it is less than 5%, we use 5% instead. => Average Free Cash Flow Growth Rate in the past 10 years was 14.80% which is less than 20% and higher than 5% => Growth Rate: 14.80%

3. Years of Growth Stage: y1 = 10

4. Terminal Growth Rate: g2 = 4%

5. Years of Terminal Growth: y2 = 10

6. Free Cash Flow per Share: fcf = $5.867.
However, GuruFocus DCF calculator is actually a Discounted Earnings calculator, the EPS without NRI is used as the default. The reason we are doing this is we found that historically stock prices are more correlated with earnings than free cash flow.

All of the default settings can be changed and the results are calculated automatically.

Ameriprise Financial's Intrinsic Value: DCF (FCF Based) for today is calculated as

Intrinsic Value: DCF (FCF Based)=Free Cash Flow per Share*{[(1+g1)/(1+d)+(1+g1)^2/(1+d)^2+...+(1+g1)^10/(1+d)^10]
+(1+g1)^10/(1+d)^10*[(1+g2)/(1+d)+(1+g2)^2/(1+d)^2+...+(1+g2)^10/(1+d)^10]}

set x = (1+g1)/(1+d) = (1+0.148)/(1+0.08) = 1.062962962963
and y = (1+g2)/(1+d) = (1+0.04)/(1+0.08) = 0.96296296296296

Intrinsic Value: DCF (FCF Based)=Free Cash Flow per Share*{[x+x^2+...+x^10]+x^10*[y+y^2+...+y^10]}
=Free Cash Flow per Share*[x*(1-x^10)/(1-x)+x^10*y*(1-y^10)/(1-y)]
=5.867*29.2588
=171.66

Margin of Safety (FCF Based)=(Intrinsic Value: DCF (FCF Based)-Current Price)/Intrinsic Value: DCF (FCF Based)
=(171.66-296.32)/171.66
=-72.62 %

* For Operating Data section: All numbers are indicated by the unit behind each term and all currency related amount are in USD.
* For other sections: All numbers are in millions except for per share data, ratio, and percentage. All currency related amount are indicated in the company's associated stock exchange currency.


Ameriprise Financial  (NYSE:AMP) Intrinsic Value: DCF (FCF Based) Explanation

Unlike valuation methods such as Net Current Asset Value, Tangible Book per Share, Graham Number, Median PS Value etc, discounted Cash Flow model evaluates the companies based on their future earnings power instead of their assets.


Be Aware

What you need to know about the DCF model:

1. The DCF model evaluates a company based on its future earnings power
2. Growth is taken into account; therefore a faster growth company is worth more if everything else is the same.
3. Since we are projecting future growth, it is assumed that the company will grow at the same rate as it did during the past 10 years. Therefore this model works better for the companies that have relatively consistent performance.
4. The DCF model works poorly for inconsistent performers such as cyclicals.
5. What discount rate should you use? Your expected return from the investment is a good discount rate assumption.
6. A larger margin of safety should be required for companies with less predictable businesses.

You can screen for stocks that trade below their Intrinsic Value: DCF (FCF Based) and Intrinsic Value: DCF (Earnings Based) with the GuruFocus All-in-One Screener. Companies with a high Predictability Rank that trade at a discount to their Intrinsic Value: DCF (FCF Based) and Intrinsic Value: DCF (Earnings Based) can be found in the screen of Undervalued Predictable Companies.


Ameriprise Financial Intrinsic Value: DCF (FCF Based) Related Terms

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Ameriprise Financial Business Description

Ameriprise Financial logo
Industry
Financial Services » Asset Management NAICS : 523930 SIC : 6282
Traded in Other Exchanges
Address
1099 Ameriprise Financial Center, Minneapolis, MN, USA, 55474
Spun off from American Express in 2005, Ameriprise Financial has emerged as a major player in the U.S. market for asset and wealth management, with around $1.1 trillion in total assets under management and advisement at the end of 2020. Ameriprise has one of the largest branded advisor networks in the industry, and over 70% of the company's revenue comes from its asset and wealth management segments. Ameriprise has reduced its exposure to insurance with the sale of its auto and home insurance business in 2019 and discontinuing the sale of its proprietary fixed annuities in 2020. Around 90% of the company's pretax earnings are from the United States.
Executives
Smyth Gerard P. officer: EVP Technology and CIO 1099 AMERIPRISE FINANCIAL MINNEAPOLIS MN 55474
Woerner John Robert officer: Pres Ins & Chief Strat Officer AMERIPRISE FINANCIAL, INC. 707 SECOND AVENUE SOUTH MINNEAPOLIS MN 55474
Williams Christopher J director 650 FIFTH AVE 10TH FL NEW YORK NY 10019
Truscott William F officer: CEO, Global Asset Management AMERIPRISE FINANCIAL, INC. 50591 AMERIPRISE FINANCIAL CENTER MINNEAPOLIS MN 55474
Sweeney Joseph Edward officer: Pres-AWM Products & Services AMERIPRISE FINANCIAL, INC. 707 SECOND AVENUE SOUTH MINNEAPOLIS MN 55474
Moore Colin officer: EVP & Global CIO C/O PUTNAM LLC ONE POST OFFICE SQ BOSTON MA 02109
Sharpe Robert Francis Jr director AMERIPRISE FINANCIAL, INC. 50591 AMERIPRISE FINANCIAL CENTER MINNEAPOLIS MN 55474
Greenberg Lon R director 460 NORTH GULPH ROAD KING OF PRUSSIA PA 19406
Noddle Jeffrey director 11840 VALLEY VIEW ROAD EDEN PRAIRIE MN 55344
Walter W Edward director PUBLIC "-//W3C//DTD HTML 4.0 Transitional//EN"> Ownership Information: WALTER W EDWARD a.header:link {color: #3b4fae; font-weight: bold; text-decoration: underline;} a.header:visited {color: #3b4fae; font-weight: bold; text-decoration: underline;} a.header:hover {color: #191970;}
Neal Blixt Dianne director 714 GREEN VALLEY ROAD GREENSBORO NC 27408
Digeso Amy director C/O THE ESTEE LAUDER COMPANIES INC. 767 FIFTH AVENUE NEW YORK NY 10153
Shea Brian T director ONE PERSHING PLAZA 95 CHRISTOPHER COLUMBUS DRIVE JERSEY CITY NJ 07399
Hutt John R. officer: Sr Vice Pres and Controller 1099 AMERIPRISE FINANCIAL CENTER MINNEAPOLIS MN 55474
Thissen Karen Wilson officer: Executive VP and GC 1098 AMERIPRISE FINANCIAL CENTER MINNEAPOLIS MN 55474

Ameriprise Financial Headlines

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