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Progressive Intrinsic Value: Projected FCF

: $147.61 (As of Today)
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Since the intrinsic value calculations based on Discounted Cash Flow Intrinsic Value: DCF (FCF Based), or Discounted Earnings Intrinsic Value: DCF (Earnings Based) cannot be applied to companies without consistent revenue and earnings, GuruFocus developed a valuation model based on normalized Free Cash Flow and Book Value of the company. The details of how we calculate the intrinsic value of stocks are described in detail here.

As of today (2022-08-18), Progressive's Intrinsic Value: Projected FCF is $147.61. The stock price of Progressive is $128.21. Therefore, Progressive's Price-to-Intrinsic-Value-Projected-FCF of today is 0.9.

The historical rank and industry rank for Progressive's Intrinsic Value: Projected FCF or its related term are showing as below:

PGR' s Price-to-Projected-FCF Range Over the Past 10 Years
Min: 0.33   Med: 0.73   Max: 2.78
Current: 0.87

During the past 13 years, the highest Price-to-Intrinsic-Value-Projected-FCF of Progressive was 2.78. The lowest was 0.33. And the median was 0.73.

PGR's Price-to-Projected-FCF is ranked worse than
64.94% of 405 companies
in the Insurance industry
Industry Median: 0.58 vs PGR: 0.87

Progressive Intrinsic Value: Projected FCF Historical Data

The historical data trend for Progressive's Intrinsic Value: Projected FCF can be seen below:

* For Operating Data section: All numbers are indicated by the unit behind each term and all currency related amount are in USD.
* For other sections: All numbers are in millions except for per share data, ratio, and percentage. All currency related amount are indicated in the company's associated stock exchange currency.

* Premium members only.

Progressive Annual Data
Trend Dec12 Dec13 Dec14 Dec15 Dec16 Dec17 Dec18 Dec19 Dec20 Dec21
Intrinsic Value: Projected FCF
Premium Member Only Premium Member Only Premium Member Only Premium Member Only Premium Member Only 59.09 82.98 107.50 132.18 155.93

Progressive Quarterly Data
Sep17 Dec17 Mar18 Jun18 Sep18 Dec18 Mar19 Jun19 Sep19 Dec19 Mar20 Jun20 Sep20 Dec20 Mar21 Jun21 Sep21 Dec21 Mar22 Jun22
Intrinsic Value: Projected FCF Premium Member Only Premium Member Only Premium Member Only Premium Member Only Premium Member Only Premium Member Only Premium Member Only Premium Member Only Premium Member Only Premium Member Only Premium Member Only Premium Member Only Premium Member Only Premium Member Only Premium Member Only 150.97 157.43 155.93 163.87 147.61

Competitive Comparison

For the Insurance - Property & Casualty subindustry, Progressive's Intrinsic Value: Projected FCF, along with its competitors' market caps and Intrinsic Value: Projected FCF data, can be viewed below:

* Competitive companies are chosen from companies within the same industry, with headquarter located in same country, with closest market capitalization; x-axis shows the market cap, and y-axis shows the term value; the bigger the dot, the larger the market cap. Note that "N/A" values will not show up in the chart.

   

Progressive Intrinsic Value: Projected FCF Distribution

For the Insurance industry and Financial Services sector, Progressive's Intrinsic Value: Projected FCF distribution charts can be found below:

* The bar in red indicates where Progressive's Intrinsic Value: Projected FCF falls into.



Progressive Intrinsic Value: Projected FCF Calculation

Since the intrinsic value calculations based on Discounted Cash Flow Intrinsic Value: DCF (FCF Based), or Discounted Earnings Intrinsic Value: DCF (Earnings Based) cannot be applied to companies without consistent revenue and earnings, GuruFocus developed a valuation model based on normalized Free Cash Flow and Book Value of the company.

The details of how we calculate the intrinsic value of stocks are described in detail here.

This method smooths out the free cash flow over the past 6-7 years, multiplies the results by a growth multiple, and adds a portion of Total Stockholders Equity.

Intrinsic Value: Projected FCF = ( Growth Multiple * Free Cash Flow (6 year avg) + 0.8 * Total Stockholders Equity (most recent) ) / Shares Outstanding (Diluted Average)

In the case of negative Total Stockholders Equity, the following formula is used (see Explanation section below for the reason):

Intrinsic Value: Projected FCF = ( Growth Multiple * Free Cash Flow (6 year avg) + Total Stockholders Equity (most recent) / 0.8 ) / Shares Outstanding (Diluted Average)


Add all the Free Cash Flow together and divide 6 will get Progressive's Free Cash Flow(6 year avg) = $5,636.27.

Progressive's Intrinsic Value: Projected FCF for today is calculated as

Intrinsic Value: Projected FCF=(Growth Multiple*Free Cash Flow (6 year avg)+Total Stockholders Equity (Jun22)*0.8)/Shares Outstanding (Diluted Average)
=(13.137944322724*5636.272+15652.7*0.8)/586.500
=147.61

* For Operating Data section: All numbers are indicated by the unit behind each term and all currency related amount are in USD.
* For other sections: All numbers are in millions except for per share data, ratio, and percentage. All currency related amount are indicated in the company's associated stock exchange currency.


Progressive  (NYSE:PGR) Intrinsic Value: Projected FCF Explanation

The growth multiple is capped between 8.35 and 17.74.

Total Stockholders Equity weighting is more art than science and it should always be revisited in more detail when researching a company. Weightings from 0% to 100% to more than 100% are possible. 80% was chosen as a happy median after taking the above ideas into consideration.

Progressive's Price-to-Intrinsic-Value-Projected-FCF for today is calculated as

Price-to-Intrinsic-Value-Projected-FCF=Share Price/Intrinsic Value: Projected FCF
=128.21/147.60645818198
=0.87

* For Operating Data section: All numbers are indicated by the unit behind each term and all currency related amount are in USD.
* For other sections: All numbers are in millions except for per share data, ratio, and percentage. All currency related amount are indicated in the company's associated stock exchange currency.


Progressive Intrinsic Value: Projected FCF Related Terms

Thank you for viewing the detailed overview of Progressive's Intrinsic Value: Projected FCF provided by GuruFocus.com. Please click on the following links to see related term pages.


Progressive Business Description

Progressive logo
Address
6300 Wilson Mills Road, Mayfield Village, OH, USA, 44143
Progressive underwrites private and commercial auto insurance and specialty lines; it has over 20 million personal auto policies in force and is the fourth- largest auto insurer in the United States. Progressive markets its policies through independent insurance agencies in the U.S. and Canada and directly via the internet and telephone. Its premiums are split roughly equally between the agent and the direct channel. The company also offers commercial auto policies and entered homeowners insurance through an acquisition in 2015.
Executives
Craig Pamela director C/O ACCENTURE 161 N CLARK STREET CHICAGO IL 60601
Clawson William L. Ii officer: Chief Human Resources Officer C/O THE PROGRESSIVE CORPORATION 6300 WILSON MILLS ROAD MAYFIELD VILLAGE OH 44143
Kent Remi officer: Chief Marketing Officer 6300 WILSON MILLS ROAD MAYFIELD VILLAGE OH 44143
Bauer Jonathan S. officer: Chief Investment Officer 6300 WILSON MILLS ROAD MAYFIELD VILLAGE OH 44143
Marshall Mariann Wojtkun officer: Chief Accounting Officer C/O THE PROGRESSIVE CORPORATION 6300 WILSON MILLS RD. MAYFIELD VILLAGE OH 44143
Tighe Jan E director C/O GOLDMAN SACHS & CO. LLC 200 WEST STREET NEW YORK NY 10282
Snyder Barbara R director 127 PUBLIC SQUARE CLEVELAND OH 44114
Quigg Andrew J officer: Chief Strategy Officer C/O THE PROGRESSIVE CORPORATION 6300 WILSON MILLS ROAD MAYFIELD VILLAGE OH 44143
Bleser Philip director 8760 CLAY ROAD SUITE 100 HOUSTON TX 77494
Broz Steven officer: Chief Information Officer C/O THE PROGRESSIVE CORPORATION 6300 WILSON MILLS ROAD MAYFIELD VILLAGE OH 44143
Niederst Lori A officer: CRM President C/O THE PROGRESSIVE CORPORATION 6300 WILSON MILLS ROAD MAYFIELD VILLAGE OH 44143
Bailo Karen officer: Commercial Lines President 6300 WILSON MILLS ROAD MAYFIELD VILLAGE OH 44143
Mascaro Daniel P officer: Vice Pres, Secretary and CLO C/O THE PROGRESSIVE CORPORATION 6300 WILSON MILLS ROAD MAYFIELD VILLAGE OH 44143
Murphy John Jo officer: Claims President C/O THE PROGRESSIVE CORPORATION 6300 WILSON MILLS ROAD MAYFIELD VILLAGE OH 44143
Callahan Patrick K officer: Personal Lines President C/O THE PROGRESSIVE CORPORATION 6300 WILSON MILLS ROAD MAYFIELD VILLAGE OH 44143

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