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Post Holdings Intrinsic Value: Projected FCF

: $99.26 (As of Today)
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Since the intrinsic value calculations based on Discounted Cash Flow Intrinsic Value: DCF (FCF Based), or Discounted Earnings Intrinsic Value: DCF (Earnings Based) cannot be applied to companies without consistent revenue and earnings, GuruFocus developed a valuation model based on normalized Free Cash Flow and Book Value of the company. The details of how we calculate the intrinsic value of stocks are described in detail here.

As of today (2022-08-16), Post Holdings's Intrinsic Value: Projected FCF is $99.26. The stock price of Post Holdings is $89.86. Therefore, Post Holdings's Price-to-Intrinsic-Value-Projected-FCF of today is 0.9.

The historical rank and industry rank for Post Holdings's Intrinsic Value: Projected FCF or its related term are showing as below:

POST' s Price-to-Projected-FCF Range Over the Past 10 Years
Min: 0.66   Med: 0.77   Max: 0.92
Current: 0.91

During the past 12 years, the highest Price-to-Intrinsic-Value-Projected-FCF of Post Holdings was 0.92. The lowest was 0.66. And the median was 0.77.

POST's Price-to-Projected-FCF is ranked better than
61.73% of 1189 companies
in the Consumer Packaged Goods industry
Industry Median: 1.13 vs POST: 0.91

Post Holdings Intrinsic Value: Projected FCF Historical Data

The historical data trend for Post Holdings's Intrinsic Value: Projected FCF can be seen below:

* For Operating Data section: All numbers are indicated by the unit behind each term and all currency related amount are in USD.
* For other sections: All numbers are in millions except for per share data, ratio, and percentage. All currency related amount are indicated in the company's associated stock exchange currency.

* Premium members only.

Post Holdings Annual Data
Trend Sep12 Sep13 Sep14 Sep15 Sep16 Sep17 Sep18 Sep19 Sep20 Sep21
Intrinsic Value: Projected FCF
Premium Member Only Premium Member Only Premium Member Only Premium Member Only Premium Member Only 74.86 83.22 75.25 79.97 91.49

Post Holdings Quarterly Data
Sep17 Dec17 Mar18 Jun18 Sep18 Dec18 Mar19 Jun19 Sep19 Dec19 Mar20 Jun20 Sep20 Dec20 Mar21 Jun21 Sep21 Dec21 Mar22 Jun22
Intrinsic Value: Projected FCF Premium Member Only Premium Member Only Premium Member Only Premium Member Only Premium Member Only Premium Member Only Premium Member Only Premium Member Only Premium Member Only Premium Member Only Premium Member Only Premium Member Only Premium Member Only Premium Member Only Premium Member Only 92.03 91.49 90.16 100.73 99.26

Competitive Comparison

For the Packaged Foods subindustry, Post Holdings's Intrinsic Value: Projected FCF, along with its competitors' market caps and Intrinsic Value: Projected FCF data, can be viewed below:

* Competitive companies are chosen from companies within the same industry, with headquarter located in same country, with closest market capitalization; x-axis shows the market cap, and y-axis shows the term value; the bigger the dot, the larger the market cap. Note that "N/A" values will not show up in the chart.

   

Post Holdings Intrinsic Value: Projected FCF Distribution

For the Consumer Packaged Goods industry and Consumer Defensive sector, Post Holdings's Intrinsic Value: Projected FCF distribution charts can be found below:

* The bar in red indicates where Post Holdings's Intrinsic Value: Projected FCF falls into.



Post Holdings Intrinsic Value: Projected FCF Calculation

Since the intrinsic value calculations based on Discounted Cash Flow Intrinsic Value: DCF (FCF Based), or Discounted Earnings Intrinsic Value: DCF (Earnings Based) cannot be applied to companies without consistent revenue and earnings, GuruFocus developed a valuation model based on normalized Free Cash Flow and Book Value of the company.

The details of how we calculate the intrinsic value of stocks are described in detail here.

This method smooths out the free cash flow over the past 6-7 years, multiplies the results by a growth multiple, and adds a portion of Total Stockholders Equity.

Intrinsic Value: Projected FCF = ( Growth Multiple * Free Cash Flow (6 year avg) + 0.8 * Total Stockholders Equity (most recent) ) / Shares Outstanding (Diluted Average)

In the case of negative Total Stockholders Equity, the following formula is used (see Explanation section below for the reason):

Intrinsic Value: Projected FCF = ( Growth Multiple * Free Cash Flow (6 year avg) + Total Stockholders Equity (most recent) / 0.8 ) / Shares Outstanding (Diluted Average)


Add all the Free Cash Flow together and divide 6 will get Post Holdings's Free Cash Flow(6 year avg) = $347.33.

Post Holdings's Intrinsic Value: Projected FCF for today is calculated as

Intrinsic Value: Projected FCF=(Growth Multiple*Free Cash Flow (6 year avg)+Total Stockholders Equity (Jun22)*0.8)/Shares Outstanding (Diluted Average)
=(9.7849180867139*347.328+3395*0.8)/61.600
=99.26

* For Operating Data section: All numbers are indicated by the unit behind each term and all currency related amount are in USD.
* For other sections: All numbers are in millions except for per share data, ratio, and percentage. All currency related amount are indicated in the company's associated stock exchange currency.


Post Holdings  (NYSE:POST) Intrinsic Value: Projected FCF Explanation

The growth multiple is capped between 8.35 and 17.74.

Total Stockholders Equity weighting is more art than science and it should always be revisited in more detail when researching a company. Weightings from 0% to 100% to more than 100% are possible. 80% was chosen as a happy median after taking the above ideas into consideration.

Post Holdings's Price-to-Intrinsic-Value-Projected-FCF for today is calculated as

Price-to-Intrinsic-Value-Projected-FCF=Share Price/Intrinsic Value: Projected FCF
=89.86/99.262597876983
=0.91

* For Operating Data section: All numbers are indicated by the unit behind each term and all currency related amount are in USD.
* For other sections: All numbers are in millions except for per share data, ratio, and percentage. All currency related amount are indicated in the company's associated stock exchange currency.


Post Holdings Intrinsic Value: Projected FCF Related Terms

Thank you for viewing the detailed overview of Post Holdings's Intrinsic Value: Projected FCF provided by GuruFocus.com. Please click on the following links to see related term pages.


Post Holdings Business Description

Post Holdings logo
Traded in Other Exchanges
Address
2503 South Hanley Road, St. Louis, MO, USA, 63144
Post Holdings operates in North America and Europe. For fiscal 2021 (restated for the separation of BellRing Brands), 47% of the company's revenue came from cereal, with brands such as Honeycomb, Grape-Nuts, Pebbles, Honey Bunches of Oats, Malt-O-Meal, and Weetabix. Refrigerated food made up 52% of sales and services the retail (20% of company sales) and food-service channels (32%), providing value-added egg and potato products, prepared side dishes, cheese, and sausage under brands Bob Evans and Simply Potatoes. Post also holds a 60% stake in 8th Avenue, a private brands entity and a 14% stake in BellRing Brands, with protein-based products under the Premier Protein and Dymatize brands. Post launched a special purpose acquisition corp in 2021, but has not yet executed a transaction.
Executives
Catoggio Nicolas officer: PRES & CEO, PCB C/O POST HOLDINGS, INC. 2 ST. LOUIS MO 63144
Erb Thomas C director C/O POST HOLDINGS, INC. 2503 S. HANLEY ROAD ST. LOUIS MO 63144
Johnson Jennifer Kuperman director C/O BELLRING BRANDS, INC. 2503 S. HANLEY ROAD ST. LOUIS MO 63144
Burwell Dorothy M director C/O POST HOLDINGS, INC. 2503 S. HANLEY ROAD ST. LOUIS MO 63021
Harper Bradly A officer: SVP, CHIEF ACCTING OFFICER C/O POST HOLDINGS, INC. 2503 S. HANLEY ROAD ST. LOUIS MO 63144
Friedman Howard A officer: PRES & CEO, PCB 20802 KENSINGTON BLVD LAKEVILLE MN 55044
Westphal Mark W officer: PRES., MICHAEL FOODS C/O POST HOLDINGS, INC. 2503 S. HANLEY ROAD ST. LOUIS MO 63144
Harshman Ellen F director C/O POST HOLDINGS, INC. 2503 S. HANLEY ROAD ST. LOUIS MO 63144
Neugent Christopher J officer: PRES & CEO-POST CONSUMER BRNDS 20802 KENSINGTON BLVD LAKEVIEW MN 55044
Kemper David W director PO BOX 419248 KANSAS CITY MO 64141-6248
Koulouris Richard R officer: Pres. & CEO - Post/MOM C/O POST HOLDINGS INC 2503 S. HANLEY ROAD ST LOUIS MO 63144
Dwyer James E Jr officer: PRES. & CEO - MICHAEL FOODS C/O MICHAEL FOODS, INC. 301 CARLSON PARKWAY MINNETONKA MN 55305
Gray Diedre J officer: SVP, GEN. COUNSEL & SEC'Y C/O POST HOLDINGS, INC. 2503 SOUTH HANLEY ROAD ST. LOUIS MO 63144
Curl Gregory L director
Banks David R director C/O RALCORP HOLDINGS INC 800 MARKET ST ST LOUIS MO 63101

Post Holdings Headlines

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