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Bluerock Homes Trust (Bluerock Homes Trust) Predictability Rank


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What is Bluerock Homes Trust Predictability Rank?

Not Rated

Warren Buffett said many times that the companies he likes are:

1. Simple businesses that he understands
2. that have predictable and proven earnings and
3. with economic moat
4. those can be bought at a reasonable price.

It is hard to quantify "simple businesses that he (Buffett) understands", so we will focus on the other three characteristics instead. In GuruFocus Research: What worked in the market from 1998-2008? Part I: Introduction of Predictability Rank, we will show that the businesses that have predictable and proven earnings are usually also simple businesses that an average person could understand.

GuruFocus conducted a back test study of Warren Buffett's strategy of "buying good companies at fair prices" for the years from 1998-2008.

Bluerock Homes Trust Predictability Rank Calculation

In our database there are 2403 stocks that have been traded from Jan. 2, 1998 to Aug. 31, 2008. We have the complete 10-year financial data and trading prices of these companies for this period. We rank the predictability of these companies based on the consistency of their revenue per share and EBITDA (earning before interest, tax, depreciation and amortization) per share over the past ten fiscal years, and study the correlation between the stock performances and the predictability of the business.

Our study may be subject to these biases and assumptions:

Dividend yields are not counted for investment returns
Effects of price changes due to spin-offs may not be fully adjusted
Study is subjected to survivorship bias due to de-listing, bankruptcy, LBO, M&A, etc.

The correlation between business predictability and investment returns of a company is showed below.

Correlation Between Business Predictability and Investment Returns

PredictablesNon-PredictableAll stocks
Total Number of stocks57018332403
Total Lost Money61830891
Total Lost More Than 50%18412430
Total Lost More Than 90%48690
Average Gain260.6%100.0%138.1%
Median Gain150.0%13.0%39.0%
Maximum Gain2852.0%11483.0%11483.0%
Maximum Loss-100.0%-100.0%-100.0%
Annualized Average Gain12.7%6.7%8.4%
Annualized Median Gain8.9%1.1%3.1%


















For the 570 predictable companies, we have seen strong correlation between the predictability of businesses and the stock performances over the past 10 years, regardless of the valuation of business at 1998. Accordingly, we have ranked the business predictability from 5-star to 1-star, as shown in this table.

Predictability Rank5-Star4.5-Star4-Star3.5-Star3-Star2.5-Star2-Star1-Star (non-predictable)Average among all
% Out of All 2403 Stocks 3.3% 2.9% 3.7% 3.3% 3.3% 3.7% 3.3% 76.3% 100%
% that are in Loss (10y) 3% 10% 8% 9% 11% 18% 16% 45% 37%
Average Gain (10y) 364.6% 330.9% 278.0% 235.1% 243.5% 227.8% 154.8% 100.0% 138.1%
Median Gain (10y) 238.5% 193.5% 171.0% 159.0% 132.5% 113.5% 87.0% 13.0% 39.0%
Maximum Gainer 2228.0% 2547.0% 2452.0% 2852.0% 2432.0% 1892.0% 1807.0% 11483.0% 11483.0%
Maximum Loser -82.0% -53.0% -67.0% -100.0% -83.0% -100.0% -78.0% -100.0% -100.0%
Annualized Average Gain 15.4% 14.6% 13.2% 12.0% 12.2% 11.7% 9.1% 6.7% 8.4%
Annualized Median Gain 12.1% 10.6% 9.8% 9.3% 8.2% 7.3% 6.0% 1.1% 3.1%
















For detailed information about each predictability rank, please go to GuruFocus Research: What worked in the market from 1998-2008? Part I: Introduction of Predictability Rank

Also read:

Part II: What worked in the market from 1998-2008? Part II: Role of Valuations
Part III: Intrinsic Value, Discounted Cash Flow and Margin of Safety

Bluerock Homes Trust Predictability Rank Related Terms

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Bluerock Homes Trust (Bluerock Homes Trust) Business Description

Industry
GURUFOCUS.COM » STOCK LIST » Real Estate » REITs » Bluerock Homes Trust Inc (AMEX:BHM) » Definitions » Predictability Rank
Comparable Companies
CLPR FREVS AVB EQR INVH SUI MAA ESS ELS AMH UDR CPT TSX:CAR.UN AIRC TSE:3269 IRT TSX:BEI.UN TSE:8986 TSE:3278 XPAR:ALTA
Traded in Other Exchanges
N/A
Address
1345 Avenue of the Americas, 32nd Floor, New York, NY, USA, 10105
Website
https://bluerock.com/bluerock-homes-trust/
Bluerock Homes Trust Inc owns and operates single-family properties that generate rental and other property-related income through the leasing of units to a diverse base of tenants. The properties are located in Sunbelt and the Western United States.
Executives
Christopher J. Vohs officer: CFO and Treasurer 27777 FRANKLIN RD SUITE 900, SOUTHFIELD MI 48034
Par Olof Sanda 10 percent owner 624 RIVIERA ISLE DRIVE, FORT LAUDERDALE FL 33301
Sand Capital Associates Llc 10 percent owner 501 N BIRCH RD, UNIT 3, FORT LAUDERDALE FL 33304
Romano Tio director 1345 AVENUE OF THE AMERICAS, 32ND FLOOR, NEW YORK NY 10105
Babb James G. Iii officer: Chief Strategy Officer 712 FIFTH AVENUE, 9TH FLOOR, NEW YORK NY 10019
Ryan S Macdonald officer: Chief Investment Officer 712 FIFTH AVENUE, 9TH FLOOR, NEW YORK NY 10012
Michael Difranco officer: Executive VP, Operations 712 FIFTH AVENUE, SUITE 900, NEW YORK NY 10019
Kamal Jafarnia director 7201 REGENCY COURT, PLANO TX 75024
Elizabeth Scott Harrison director 390 WEST END AVENUE, APARTMENT 3F, NEW YORK NY 10024
I. Bobby Majumder director 1345 AVENUE OF THE AMERICAS, 32ND FLOOR, NEW YORK NY 10105
Ramin Kamfar officer: Chief Executive Officer 1345 AVENUE OF THE AMERICAS, 32 FLOOR, NEW YORK NY 10105
Jordan B. Ruddy director, officer: President 1345 AVENUE OF THE AMERICAS, 32ND FLOOR, NEW YORK NY 10105
Bluerock Residential Growth Reit, Inc. 10 percent owner 712 FIFTH AVENUE, 9TH FLOOR, NEW YORK NY 10019
Jason Emala officer: See Remarks 1345 AVENUE OF THE AMERICAS, 32ND FLOOR, NEW YORK NY 10105