BPRN (Princeton Bancorp) Predictability Rank

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What is Princeton Bancorp Predictability Rank?

Not Rated

Warren Buffett said many times that the companies he likes are:

1. Simple businesses that he understands
2. that have predictable and proven earnings and
3. with economic moat
4. those can be bought at a reasonable price.

It is hard to quantify "simple businesses that he (Buffett) understands", so we will focus on the other three characteristics instead. In GuruFocus Research: What worked in the market from 1998-2008? Part I: Introduction of Predictability Rank, we will show that the businesses that have predictable and proven earnings are usually also simple businesses that an average person could understand.

GuruFocus conducted a back test study of Warren Buffett's strategy of "buying good companies at fair prices" for the years from 1998-2008.

Princeton Bancorp Predictability Rank Calculation

In our database there are 2403 stocks that have been traded from Jan. 2, 1998 to Aug. 31, 2008. We have the complete 10-year financial data and trading prices of these companies for this period. We rank the predictability of these companies based on the consistency of their revenue per share and EBITDA (earning before interest, tax, depreciation and amortization) per share over the past ten fiscal years, and study the correlation between the stock performances and the predictability of the business.

Our study may be subject to these biases and assumptions:

Dividend yields are not counted for investment returns
Effects of price changes due to spin-offs may not be fully adjusted
Study is subjected to survivorship bias due to de-listing, bankruptcy, LBO, M&A, etc.

The correlation between business predictability and investment returns of a company is showed below.

Correlation Between Business Predictability and Investment Returns

	Predictables	Non-Predictable	All stocks
Total Number of stocks	570	1833	2403
Total Lost Money	61	830	891
Total Lost More Than 50%	18	412	430
Total Lost More Than 90%	4	86	90
Average Gain	260.6%	100.0%	138.1%
Median Gain	150.0%	13.0%	39.0%
Maximum Gain	2852.0%	11483.0%	11483.0%
Maximum Loss	-100.0%	-100.0%	-100.0%
Annualized Average Gain	12.7%	6.7%	8.4%
Annualized Median Gain	8.9%	1.1%	3.1%

For the 570 predictable companies, we have seen strong correlation between the predictability of businesses and the stock performances over the past 10 years, regardless of the valuation of business at 1998. Accordingly, we have ranked the business predictability from 5-star to 1-star, as shown in this table.

Predictability Rank	5-Star	4.5-Star	4-Star	3.5-Star	3-Star	2.5-Star	2-Star	1-Star (non-predictable)	Average among all
% Out of All 2403 Stocks	3.3%	2.9%	3.7%	3.3%	3.3%	3.7%	3.3%	76.3%	100%
% that are in Loss (10y)	3%	10%	8%	9%	11%	18%	16%	45%	37%
Average Gain (10y)	364.6%	330.9%	278.0%	235.1%	243.5%	227.8%	154.8%	100.0%	138.1%
Median Gain (10y)	238.5%	193.5%	171.0%	159.0%	132.5%	113.5%	87.0%	13.0%	39.0%
Maximum Gainer	2228.0%	2547.0%	2452.0%	2852.0%	2432.0%	1892.0%	1807.0%	11483.0%	11483.0%
Maximum Loser	-82.0%	-53.0%	-67.0%	-100.0%	-83.0%	-100.0%	-78.0%	-100.0%	-100.0%
Annualized Average Gain	15.4%	14.6%	13.2%	12.0%	12.2%	11.7%	9.1%	6.7%	8.4%
Annualized Median Gain	12.1%	10.6%	9.8%	9.3%	8.2%	7.3%	6.0%	1.1%	3.1%

For detailed information about each predictability rank, please go to GuruFocus Research: What worked in the market from 1998-2008? Part I: Introduction of Predictability Rank

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Princeton Bancorp Business Description

Industry

GURUFOCUS.COM » STOCK LIST » Financial Services » Banks » Princeton Bancorp Inc (NAS:BPRN) » Definitions » Predictability Rank

Comparable Companies

Traded in Other Exchanges

N/A

Address

183 Bayard Lane, Princeton, NJ, USA, 08540

Website

https://www.thebankofprinceton.com

Princeton Bancorp Inc is a banking company. It is a full-service financial institution that provides business and personal banking. Its personal banking and business banking services include checking accounts and savings accounts. It offers traditional retail banking services, one-to-four-family residential mortgage loans, multi-family and commercial mortgage loans, construction loans, commercial business loans, and consumer loans, including home equity loans and lines of credit. The Bank also has two retail branches and conducts loan origination activities in select areas of the New York City metropolitan area.

Executives

Martin Tuchman	director	633 PROSPECT AVE, PRINCETON NJ 08540
Stephanie Adkins	officer: Chief Lending Officer	183 BAYARD LANE, PRINCETON NJ 08540
Christopher Tonkovich	officer: Chief Credit Officer	183 BAYARD LANE, PRINCETON NJ 08540
Daniel J. O'donnell	officer: Chief Operating Officer	183 BAYARD LANE, PRINCETON NJ 08540
Matthew T. Clark	officer: Chief Information Officer	183 BAYARD LANE, PRINCETON NJ 08540
Robert N. Ridolfi	director	183 BAYARD LANE, PRINCETON NJ 08540
Stephen Distler	director	183 BAYARD LANE, PRINCETON NJ 08540
Judith A. Giacin	director	183 BAYARD LANE, PRINCETON NJ 08540
Richard J. Gillespie	director	183 BAYARD LANE, PRINCETON NJ 08540
Ross Wishnick	director	FIRST WASHINGTON STATE BANK, RT 130 & MANIN STREET, WINDSOR NJ 08561
Stephen Shueh	director	183 BAYARD LANE, PRINCETON NJ 08540
George S. Rapp	officer: Chief Financial Officer	HARLEYSVILLE NATIONAL CORP, 483 MAIN STREET, HARLEYSVILLE PA 19438
Edward J Dietzler	director, officer: Chief Executive Officer	2465 KUSER ROAD, HAMILTON NJ 08690