CTO (CTO Realty Growth) Predictability Rank

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What is CTO Realty Growth Predictability Rank?

Warren Buffett said many times that the companies he likes are:

1. Simple businesses that he understands
2. that have predictable and proven earnings and
3. with economic moat
4. those can be bought at a reasonable price.

It is hard to quantify "simple businesses that he (Buffett) understands", so we will focus on the other three characteristics instead. In GuruFocus Research: What worked in the market from 1998-2008? Part I: Introduction of Predictability Rank, we will show that the businesses that have predictable and proven earnings are usually also simple businesses that an average person could understand.

GuruFocus conducted a back test study of Warren Buffett's strategy of "buying good companies at fair prices" for the years from 1998-2008.

CTO Realty Growth Predictability Rank Calculation

In our database there are 2403 stocks that have been traded from Jan. 2, 1998 to Aug. 31, 2008. We have the complete 10-year financial data and trading prices of these companies for this period. We rank the predictability of these companies based on the consistency of their revenue per share and EBITDA (earning before interest, tax, depreciation and amortization) per share over the past ten fiscal years, and study the correlation between the stock performances and the predictability of the business.

Our study may be subject to these biases and assumptions:

Dividend yields are not counted for investment returns
Effects of price changes due to spin-offs may not be fully adjusted
Study is subjected to survivorship bias due to de-listing, bankruptcy, LBO, M&A, etc.

The correlation between business predictability and investment returns of a company is showed below.

Correlation Between Business Predictability and Investment Returns

	Predictables	Non-Predictable	All stocks
Total Number of stocks	570	1833	2403
Total Lost Money	61	830	891
Total Lost More Than 50%	18	412	430
Total Lost More Than 90%	4	86	90
Average Gain	260.6%	100.0%	138.1%
Median Gain	150.0%	13.0%	39.0%
Maximum Gain	2852.0%	11483.0%	11483.0%
Maximum Loss	-100.0%	-100.0%	-100.0%
Annualized Average Gain	12.7%	6.7%	8.4%
Annualized Median Gain	8.9%	1.1%	3.1%

For the 570 predictable companies, we have seen strong correlation between the predictability of businesses and the stock performances over the past 10 years, regardless of the valuation of business at 1998. Accordingly, we have ranked the business predictability from 5-star to 1-star, as shown in this table.

Predictability Rank	5-Star	4.5-Star	4-Star	3.5-Star	3-Star	2.5-Star	2-Star	1-Star (non-predictable)	Average among all
% Out of All 2403 Stocks	3.3%	2.9%	3.7%	3.3%	3.3%	3.7%	3.3%	76.3%	100%
% that are in Loss (10y)	3%	10%	8%	9%	11%	18%	16%	45%	37%
Average Gain (10y)	364.6%	330.9%	278.0%	235.1%	243.5%	227.8%	154.8%	100.0%	138.1%
Median Gain (10y)	238.5%	193.5%	171.0%	159.0%	132.5%	113.5%	87.0%	13.0%	39.0%
Maximum Gainer	2228.0%	2547.0%	2452.0%	2852.0%	2432.0%	1892.0%	1807.0%	11483.0%	11483.0%
Maximum Loser	-82.0%	-53.0%	-67.0%	-100.0%	-83.0%	-100.0%	-78.0%	-100.0%	-100.0%
Annualized Average Gain	15.4%	14.6%	13.2%	12.0%	12.2%	11.7%	9.1%	6.7%	8.4%
Annualized Median Gain	12.1%	10.6%	9.8%	9.3%	8.2%	7.3%	6.0%	1.1%	3.1%

For detailed information about each predictability rank, please go to GuruFocus Research: What worked in the market from 1998-2008? Part I: Introduction of Predictability Rank

CTO Realty Growth Predictability Rank Related Terms

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CTO Realty Growth Business Description

Industry

GURUFOCUS.COM » STOCK LIST » Real Estate » REITs » CTO Realty Growth Inc (NYSE:CTO) » Definitions » Predictability Rank

Comparable Companies

Traded in Other Exchanges

8QB0:Germany 8QB0:Germany

Address

369 N. New York Avenue, Suite 201, Winter Park, FL, USA, 32789

Website

https://www.ctoreit.com

CTO Realty Growth Inc is a Florida-based real estate investment trust company, that owns income properties comprised of approximately 2.7 million square feet in diversified markets in the United States. Its portfolio of assets consists of Income Properties Portfolio, management services, Commercial Loan and Investments.

Executives

John P Albright	officer: President & CEO	PO BOX 10809, DAYTONA BEACH FL 32120
Christopher W Haga	director	PO BOX 10809, DAYTONA BEACH FL 32120
Matthew Morris Partridge	officer: SR. VP & CFO	70 E. LONG LAKE, BLOOMFIELD HILLS MI 48304
Daniel Earl Smith	officer: SVP, GEN COUNSEL & CORP SECRET	P.O. BOX 10809, DAYTONA BEACH FL 32120
Steven Robert Greathouse	officer: SVP-INVESTMENTS	PO BOX 10809, DAYTONA BEACH FL 32120
Robert Blakeslee Gable	director	PO BOX 10809, DAYTONA BEACH FL 32120
George R Brokaw	director	DISH NETWORK CORPORATION, 9601 S MERIDIAN BLVD, ENGLEWOOD CO 80112
Lisa Vorakoun	officer: VP & CHIEF ACCOUNTING OFFICER	1140 N. WILLIAMSON BLVD., SUITE 140, DAYTONA BEACH FL 32114
Christopher J Drew	director	PO BOX 10809, DAYTONA BEACH FL 32120
Laura M Franklin	director	CONSOLIDATED-TOMOKA LAND CO., PO BOX 10809, DAYTONA BEACH FL 32120
Casey R Wold	director	C/O CONSOLIDATED-TOMOKA LAND CO., PO BOX 10809, DAYTONA BEACH FL 32120
Howard C Serkin	director	712 SPINAKERS REACH, PONTE VEDRA FL 32082
Mark E Patten	officer: Sr. VP & CFO	PO BOX 10809, DAYTONA BEACH FL 32120
Wintergreen Fund, Inc.	10 percent owner	500 INTERNATIONAL DRIVE, SUITE 275, MOUNT OLIVE NJ 07828
William L. Olivari	director	141 SAGE BRUSH TRAIL, STE. D, ORMOND BEACH FL 32174