Doma Holdings (Doma Holdings) Predictability Rank

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What is Doma Holdings Predictability Rank?

Not Rated

Warren Buffett said many times that the companies he likes are:

1. Simple businesses that he understands
2. that have predictable and proven earnings and
3. with economic moat
4. those can be bought at a reasonable price.

It is hard to quantify "simple businesses that he (Buffett) understands", so we will focus on the other three characteristics instead. In GuruFocus Research: What worked in the market from 1998-2008? Part I: Introduction of Predictability Rank, we will show that the businesses that have predictable and proven earnings are usually also simple businesses that an average person could understand.

GuruFocus conducted a back test study of Warren Buffett's strategy of "buying good companies at fair prices" for the years from 1998-2008.

Doma Holdings Predictability Rank Calculation

In our database there are 2403 stocks that have been traded from Jan. 2, 1998 to Aug. 31, 2008. We have the complete 10-year financial data and trading prices of these companies for this period. We rank the predictability of these companies based on the consistency of their revenue per share and EBITDA (earning before interest, tax, depreciation and amortization) per share over the past ten fiscal years, and study the correlation between the stock performances and the predictability of the business.

Our study may be subject to these biases and assumptions:

Dividend yields are not counted for investment returns
Effects of price changes due to spin-offs may not be fully adjusted
Study is subjected to survivorship bias due to de-listing, bankruptcy, LBO, M&A, etc.

The correlation between business predictability and investment returns of a company is showed below.

Correlation Between Business Predictability and Investment Returns

	Predictables	Non-Predictable	All stocks
Total Number of stocks	570	1833	2403
Total Lost Money	61	830	891
Total Lost More Than 50%	18	412	430
Total Lost More Than 90%	4	86	90
Average Gain	260.6%	100.0%	138.1%
Median Gain	150.0%	13.0%	39.0%
Maximum Gain	2852.0%	11483.0%	11483.0%
Maximum Loss	-100.0%	-100.0%	-100.0%
Annualized Average Gain	12.7%	6.7%	8.4%
Annualized Median Gain	8.9%	1.1%	3.1%

For the 570 predictable companies, we have seen strong correlation between the predictability of businesses and the stock performances over the past 10 years, regardless of the valuation of business at 1998. Accordingly, we have ranked the business predictability from 5-star to 1-star, as shown in this table.

Predictability Rank	5-Star	4.5-Star	4-Star	3.5-Star	3-Star	2.5-Star	2-Star	1-Star (non-predictable)	Average among all
% Out of All 2403 Stocks	3.3%	2.9%	3.7%	3.3%	3.3%	3.7%	3.3%	76.3%	100%
% that are in Loss (10y)	3%	10%	8%	9%	11%	18%	16%	45%	37%
Average Gain (10y)	364.6%	330.9%	278.0%	235.1%	243.5%	227.8%	154.8%	100.0%	138.1%
Median Gain (10y)	238.5%	193.5%	171.0%	159.0%	132.5%	113.5%	87.0%	13.0%	39.0%
Maximum Gainer	2228.0%	2547.0%	2452.0%	2852.0%	2432.0%	1892.0%	1807.0%	11483.0%	11483.0%
Maximum Loser	-82.0%	-53.0%	-67.0%	-100.0%	-83.0%	-100.0%	-78.0%	-100.0%	-100.0%
Annualized Average Gain	15.4%	14.6%	13.2%	12.0%	12.2%	11.7%	9.1%	6.7%	8.4%
Annualized Median Gain	12.1%	10.6%	9.8%	9.3%	8.2%	7.3%	6.0%	1.1%	3.1%

For detailed information about each predictability rank, please go to GuruFocus Research: What worked in the market from 1998-2008? Part I: Introduction of Predictability Rank

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Doma Holdings (Doma Holdings) Business Description

Industry

GURUFOCUS.COM » STOCK LIST » Financial Services » Insurance » Doma Holdings Inc (NYSE:DOMA) » Definitions » Predictability Rank

Comparable Companies

Traded in Other Exchanges

N/A

Address

101 Mission Street, Suite 740, San Francisco, CA, USA, 94105

Website

https://www.doma.com

Doma Holdings Inc is architecting the future of real estate transactions. The company uses machine intelligence and its patented technology solutions to transform residential real estate, making closings instant and affordable. The company operates through two complementary segments- Distribution and Underwriting. Majority revenue is generated from Underwriting segment. Underwriting segment reflects the results of their title insurance underwriting business, including policies referred through Direct Agents and Third-Party Agents channels. The referring agents typically retain approximately 82% - 84% of the policy premiums in exchange for their services.

Executives

Michael Alan Smith	officer: Chief Accounting Officer	C/O CAPITALSOURCE INC., 5404 WISCONSIN AVENUE, 2ND FLOOR, CHEVY CHASE MD 20815
Maxwell Simkoff	director, 10 percent owner, officer: Chief Executive Officer	101 MISSION ST., SUITE 740, SAN FRANCISCO CA 94105
Hasan Rizvi	officer: Chief Technology Officer	101 MISSION ST., SUITE 740, SAN FRANCISCO CA 94105
Len X, Llc	10 percent owner	700 NW 107 AVENUE, MIAMI FL 33172
Lennar Corp /new/	10 percent owner	5505 WATERFORD DISTRICT DRIVE, MIAMI FL 33126
Mark Ein	director
Len Fw Investor, Llc	10 percent owner	700 NW 107 AVENUE, MIAMI FL 33172
Maxine Williams	director	101 MISSION ST., SUITE 740, SAN FRANCISCO CA 94105
Foundation Capital Viii, L.p.	10 percent owner	250 MIDDLEFIELD ROAD, MENLO PARK CA 94025
Foundation Capital Viii Principals Fund, L.l.c.	10 percent owner	250 MIDDLEFIELD ROAD, MENLO PARK CA 94025
Foundation Capital Management Co. Lf Ii, L.l.c.	10 percent owner	550 HIGH STREET, 3RD FLOOR, PALO ALTO CA 94301
Foundation Capital Leadership Fund Ii, L.p.	10 percent owner	550 HIGH STREET, 3RD FLOOR, PALO ALTO CA 94301
Stuart A Miller	director	700 NW 107TH AVE, MIAMI FL 33172
Christopher T Morrison	officer: Chief Operating Officer	101 MISSION ST., SUITE 740, SAN FRANCISCO CA 94105
Eric J Watson	officer: General Counsel & Secretary	101 MISSION ST., SUITE 740, SAN FRANCISCO CA 94105