ESQ (Esquire Financial Holdings) Predictability Rank

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What is Esquire Financial Holdings Predictability Rank?

Not Rated

Warren Buffett said many times that the companies he likes are:

1. Simple businesses that he understands
2. that have predictable and proven earnings and
3. with economic moat
4. those can be bought at a reasonable price.

It is hard to quantify "simple businesses that he (Buffett) understands", so we will focus on the other three characteristics instead. In GuruFocus Research: What worked in the market from 1998-2008? Part I: Introduction of Predictability Rank, we will show that the businesses that have predictable and proven earnings are usually also simple businesses that an average person could understand.

GuruFocus conducted a back test study of Warren Buffett's strategy of "buying good companies at fair prices" for the years from 1998-2008.

Esquire Financial Holdings Predictability Rank Calculation

In our database there are 2403 stocks that have been traded from Jan. 2, 1998 to Aug. 31, 2008. We have the complete 10-year financial data and trading prices of these companies for this period. We rank the predictability of these companies based on the consistency of their revenue per share and EBITDA (earning before interest, tax, depreciation and amortization) per share over the past ten fiscal years, and study the correlation between the stock performances and the predictability of the business.

Our study may be subject to these biases and assumptions:

Dividend yields are not counted for investment returns
Effects of price changes due to spin-offs may not be fully adjusted
Study is subjected to survivorship bias due to de-listing, bankruptcy, LBO, M&A, etc.

The correlation between business predictability and investment returns of a company is showed below.

Correlation Between Business Predictability and Investment Returns

	Predictables	Non-Predictable	All stocks
Total Number of stocks	570	1833	2403
Total Lost Money	61	830	891
Total Lost More Than 50%	18	412	430
Total Lost More Than 90%	4	86	90
Average Gain	260.6%	100.0%	138.1%
Median Gain	150.0%	13.0%	39.0%
Maximum Gain	2852.0%	11483.0%	11483.0%
Maximum Loss	-100.0%	-100.0%	-100.0%
Annualized Average Gain	12.7%	6.7%	8.4%
Annualized Median Gain	8.9%	1.1%	3.1%

For the 570 predictable companies, we have seen strong correlation between the predictability of businesses and the stock performances over the past 10 years, regardless of the valuation of business at 1998. Accordingly, we have ranked the business predictability from 5-star to 1-star, as shown in this table.

Predictability Rank	5-Star	4.5-Star	4-Star	3.5-Star	3-Star	2.5-Star	2-Star	1-Star (non-predictable)	Average among all
% Out of All 2403 Stocks	3.3%	2.9%	3.7%	3.3%	3.3%	3.7%	3.3%	76.3%	100%
% that are in Loss (10y)	3%	10%	8%	9%	11%	18%	16%	45%	37%
Average Gain (10y)	364.6%	330.9%	278.0%	235.1%	243.5%	227.8%	154.8%	100.0%	138.1%
Median Gain (10y)	238.5%	193.5%	171.0%	159.0%	132.5%	113.5%	87.0%	13.0%	39.0%
Maximum Gainer	2228.0%	2547.0%	2452.0%	2852.0%	2432.0%	1892.0%	1807.0%	11483.0%	11483.0%
Maximum Loser	-82.0%	-53.0%	-67.0%	-100.0%	-83.0%	-100.0%	-78.0%	-100.0%	-100.0%
Annualized Average Gain	15.4%	14.6%	13.2%	12.0%	12.2%	11.7%	9.1%	6.7%	8.4%
Annualized Median Gain	12.1%	10.6%	9.8%	9.3%	8.2%	7.3%	6.0%	1.1%	3.1%

For detailed information about each predictability rank, please go to GuruFocus Research: What worked in the market from 1998-2008? Part I: Introduction of Predictability Rank

Esquire Financial Holdings Predictability Rank Related Terms

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Esquire Financial Holdings Business Description

Industry

GURUFOCUS.COM » STOCK LIST » Financial Services » Banks » Esquire Financial Holdings Inc (NAS:ESQ) » Definitions » Predictability Rank

Comparable Companies

Traded in Other Exchanges

N/A

Address

100 Jericho Quadrangle, Suite 100, Jericho, NY, USA, 11753

Website

https://www.esquirebank.com

Esquire Financial Holdings Inc is a financial holding company. Through its subsidiary, the company operates as a full-service commercial bank dedicated to serving the financial needs of the legal industry and small businesses nationally, as well as commercial and retail customers in the New York metropolitan area. The Bank offers tailored products and solutions to the legal community and their clients as well as dynamic and flexible payment processing solutions to small business owners. Banking products offered for businesses and consumers include checking, savings, money market, and time deposits; a wide range of commercial and consumer loans, as well as customary banking services. In addition, it operates a payment processing platform through third-party independent sales organizations.

Executives

Kevin C Waterhouse	director	100 JERICHO QUADRANGLE, SUITE 100, JERICHO NY 11753
Selig Zises	director	C/O MANGOSOFT INC, 1500 WEST PARK DRIVE STE 190, WESTBOROUGH MA 01581
Ari P Kornhaber	officer: EVP and Director of Sales	100 JERICHO QUADRANGLE, SUITE 100, JERICHO NY 11753
Richard T Powers	director	100 JERICHO QUADRANGLE, SUITE 100, JERICHO NY 11753
Joseph Melohn	director	100 JERICHO QUADRANGLE, SUITE 100, JERICHO NY 11753
Michael Lacapria	officer: Chief Financial Officer	100 JERICHO QUADRANGLE, SUITE 100, JERICHO NY 11753
Todd Deutsch	director	100 JERICHO QUADRANGLE, SUITE 100, JERICHO NY 11753
Marc D Grossman	director	100 JERICHO QUADRANGLE, SUITE 100, JERICHO NY 11753
Robert Mitzman	director	3725 SW 30TH AVENUE, FORT LAUDERDALE FL 33312
Eric S Bader	officer: EVP, CFO and Treasurer	100 JERICHO QUADRANGLE, SUITE 100, JERICHO NY 11753
Andrew C Sagliocca	director, officer: President and CEO	100 JERICHO QUADRANGLE, SUITE 100, JERICHO NY 11753
Parag Tandon	officer: Chief Acctg Off and Controller	100 JERICHO QUADRANGLE, SUITE 100, JERICHO NY 11753
James F. Deutsch	director	C/O STERLING NATIONAL BANK, 400 RELLA BOULEVARD, MONTEBELLO NY 10901
Anthony Coelho	director	100 JERICHO QUADRANGLE, SUITE 100, JERICHO NY 11753
Jack T Thompson	director	100 JERICHO QUADRANGLE, SUITE 100, JERICHO NY 11753