FINS (Angel Oak Financial Stratsome Term) Predictability Rank

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What is Angel Oak Financial Stratsome Term Predictability Rank?

Not Rated

Warren Buffett said many times that the companies he likes are:

1. Simple businesses that he understands
2. that have predictable and proven earnings and
3. with economic moat
4. those can be bought at a reasonable price.

It is hard to quantify "simple businesses that he (Buffett) understands", so we will focus on the other three characteristics instead. In GuruFocus Research: What worked in the market from 1998-2008? Part I: Introduction of Predictability Rank, we will show that the businesses that have predictable and proven earnings are usually also simple businesses that an average person could understand.

GuruFocus conducted a back test study of Warren Buffett's strategy of "buying good companies at fair prices" for the years from 1998-2008.

Angel Oak Financial Stratsome Term Predictability Rank Calculation

In our database there are 2403 stocks that have been traded from Jan. 2, 1998 to Aug. 31, 2008. We have the complete 10-year financial data and trading prices of these companies for this period. We rank the predictability of these companies based on the consistency of their revenue per share and EBITDA (earning before interest, tax, depreciation and amortization) per share over the past ten fiscal years, and study the correlation between the stock performances and the predictability of the business.

Our study may be subject to these biases and assumptions:

Dividend yields are not counted for investment returns
Effects of price changes due to spin-offs may not be fully adjusted
Study is subjected to survivorship bias due to de-listing, bankruptcy, LBO, M&A, etc.

The correlation between business predictability and investment returns of a company is showed below.

Correlation Between Business Predictability and Investment Returns

	Predictables	Non-Predictable	All stocks
Total Number of stocks	570	1833	2403
Total Lost Money	61	830	891
Total Lost More Than 50%	18	412	430
Total Lost More Than 90%	4	86	90
Average Gain	260.6%	100.0%	138.1%
Median Gain	150.0%	13.0%	39.0%
Maximum Gain	2852.0%	11483.0%	11483.0%
Maximum Loss	-100.0%	-100.0%	-100.0%
Annualized Average Gain	12.7%	6.7%	8.4%
Annualized Median Gain	8.9%	1.1%	3.1%

For the 570 predictable companies, we have seen strong correlation between the predictability of businesses and the stock performances over the past 10 years, regardless of the valuation of business at 1998. Accordingly, we have ranked the business predictability from 5-star to 1-star, as shown in this table.

Predictability Rank	5-Star	4.5-Star	4-Star	3.5-Star	3-Star	2.5-Star	2-Star	1-Star (non-predictable)	Average among all
% Out of All 2403 Stocks	3.3%	2.9%	3.7%	3.3%	3.3%	3.7%	3.3%	76.3%	100%
% that are in Loss (10y)	3%	10%	8%	9%	11%	18%	16%	45%	37%
Average Gain (10y)	364.6%	330.9%	278.0%	235.1%	243.5%	227.8%	154.8%	100.0%	138.1%
Median Gain (10y)	238.5%	193.5%	171.0%	159.0%	132.5%	113.5%	87.0%	13.0%	39.0%
Maximum Gainer	2228.0%	2547.0%	2452.0%	2852.0%	2432.0%	1892.0%	1807.0%	11483.0%	11483.0%
Maximum Loser	-82.0%	-53.0%	-67.0%	-100.0%	-83.0%	-100.0%	-78.0%	-100.0%	-100.0%
Annualized Average Gain	15.4%	14.6%	13.2%	12.0%	12.2%	11.7%	9.1%	6.7%	8.4%
Annualized Median Gain	12.1%	10.6%	9.8%	9.3%	8.2%	7.3%	6.0%	1.1%	3.1%

For detailed information about each predictability rank, please go to GuruFocus Research: What worked in the market from 1998-2008? Part I: Introduction of Predictability Rank

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Angel Oak Financial Stratsome Term Business Description

Industry

GURUFOCUS.COM » STOCK LIST » Financial Services » Asset Management » Angel Oak Financial Strats Income Term (NYSE:FINS) » Definitions » Predictability Rank

Comparable Companies

Traded in Other Exchanges

N/A

Address

3344 Peachtree Road NE, Suite 1725, Atlanta, GA, USA, 30326

Website

https://www.angeloakcapital.com

Angel Oak Financial Strats Income Term is a non-diversified, closed-end management investment company. The fund's objective is to seek current income with a secondary objective of total return. In pursuing its investment objective, the fund invests mainly in debt issued by financial institutions, including subordinated debt, unrated debt, senior debt, and high-yield securities.

Executives

Johannes Palsson	other: Portfolio Manager	3344 PEACHTREE ROAD NE, SUITE 1725, ATLANTA GA 30326
Kevin Parks	other: Portfolio Manager Affil. Fund	145 WEST 57TH STREET, 19TH FLOOR, NEW YORK NY 10019
William Eldredge	officer: Chief Compliance Officer	C/O ANGEL OAK CAPITAL ADVISORS, LLC, 3344 PEACHTREE ROAD NE, SUITE 1725, ATLANTA GA 30326
Angel Oak Capital Partners Ii, Llc	other: General Partner of Adviser	3344 PEACHTREE ROAD NE, SUITE 1725, ATLANTA GA 30309
Kevin Sluss	officer: Secretary	C/O ANGEL OAK CAPITAL ADVISORS, LLC, 3344 PEACHTREE ROAD NE, SUITE 1725, ATLANTA GA 30326
Navid Abghari	other: Portfolio Manager	3060 PEACHTREE ROAD NW, SUITE 500, ATLANTA GA 30305
Sun Life Financial Inc	10 percent owner	SUN LIFE ASSURANCE CO OF CANADA, ONE YORK STREET, TORONTO A6 M5J 0B6
Sun Life Assurance Co Of Canada	10 percent owner	ONE YORK STREET, TORONTO A6 M5J 0B6
Massachusetts Mutual Life Insurance Co	10 percent owner	1295 STATE STREET, SPRINGFIELD MA 01111
Michael Fierman	other: Investment Adviser Principal	ANGEL OAK CAPITAL ADVISORS, 3060 PEACHTREE ROAD NW, SUITE 500, ATLANTA GA 30305
Daniel Asher	10 percent owner	111 W JACKSON BLVD, 20TH FL, CHICAGO IL 60604
Angel Oak Capital Advisors, Llc	other: Investment Adviser	ONE BUCKHEAD PLAZA, 3060 PEACHTREE ROAD NW, SUITE 500, ATLANTA GA 30305-2240
John R Hsu	officer: Secretary	C/O ANGEL OAK CAPITAL ADVISORS, 3344 PEACHTREE ROAD NE, SUITE 1725, ATLANTA GA 30326
Cheryl Pate	other: Portfolio Manager	3060 PEACHTREE ROAD NW, SUITE 500, ATLANTA GA 30305
Sreeniwas Prabhu	director	ANGEL OAK CAPITAL ADVISORS, 3060 PEACHTREE ROAD NW, SUITE 500, ATLANTA GA 30305