First Northern Community Bancorp (First Northern Community Bancorp) Predictability Rank

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What is First Northern Community Bancorp Predictability Rank?

Warren Buffett said many times that the companies he likes are:

1. Simple businesses that he understands
2. that have predictable and proven earnings and
3. with economic moat
4. those can be bought at a reasonable price.

It is hard to quantify "simple businesses that he (Buffett) understands", so we will focus on the other three characteristics instead. In GuruFocus Research: What worked in the market from 1998-2008? Part I: Introduction of Predictability Rank, we will show that the businesses that have predictable and proven earnings are usually also simple businesses that an average person could understand.

GuruFocus conducted a back test study of Warren Buffett's strategy of "buying good companies at fair prices" for the years from 1998-2008.

First Northern Community Bancorp Predictability Rank Calculation

In our database there are 2403 stocks that have been traded from Jan. 2, 1998 to Aug. 31, 2008. We have the complete 10-year financial data and trading prices of these companies for this period. We rank the predictability of these companies based on the consistency of their revenue per share and EBITDA (earning before interest, tax, depreciation and amortization) per share over the past ten fiscal years, and study the correlation between the stock performances and the predictability of the business.

Our study may be subject to these biases and assumptions:

Dividend yields are not counted for investment returns
Effects of price changes due to spin-offs may not be fully adjusted
Study is subjected to survivorship bias due to de-listing, bankruptcy, LBO, M&A, etc.

The correlation between business predictability and investment returns of a company is showed below.

Correlation Between Business Predictability and Investment Returns

	Predictables	Non-Predictable	All stocks
Total Number of stocks	570	1833	2403
Total Lost Money	61	830	891
Total Lost More Than 50%	18	412	430
Total Lost More Than 90%	4	86	90
Average Gain	260.6%	100.0%	138.1%
Median Gain	150.0%	13.0%	39.0%
Maximum Gain	2852.0%	11483.0%	11483.0%
Maximum Loss	-100.0%	-100.0%	-100.0%
Annualized Average Gain	12.7%	6.7%	8.4%
Annualized Median Gain	8.9%	1.1%	3.1%

For the 570 predictable companies, we have seen strong correlation between the predictability of businesses and the stock performances over the past 10 years, regardless of the valuation of business at 1998. Accordingly, we have ranked the business predictability from 5-star to 1-star, as shown in this table.

Predictability Rank	5-Star	4.5-Star	4-Star	3.5-Star	3-Star	2.5-Star	2-Star	1-Star (non-predictable)	Average among all
% Out of All 2403 Stocks	3.3%	2.9%	3.7%	3.3%	3.3%	3.7%	3.3%	76.3%	100%
% that are in Loss (10y)	3%	10%	8%	9%	11%	18%	16%	45%	37%
Average Gain (10y)	364.6%	330.9%	278.0%	235.1%	243.5%	227.8%	154.8%	100.0%	138.1%
Median Gain (10y)	238.5%	193.5%	171.0%	159.0%	132.5%	113.5%	87.0%	13.0%	39.0%
Maximum Gainer	2228.0%	2547.0%	2452.0%	2852.0%	2432.0%	1892.0%	1807.0%	11483.0%	11483.0%
Maximum Loser	-82.0%	-53.0%	-67.0%	-100.0%	-83.0%	-100.0%	-78.0%	-100.0%	-100.0%
Annualized Average Gain	15.4%	14.6%	13.2%	12.0%	12.2%	11.7%	9.1%	6.7%	8.4%
Annualized Median Gain	12.1%	10.6%	9.8%	9.3%	8.2%	7.3%	6.0%	1.1%	3.1%

For detailed information about each predictability rank, please go to GuruFocus Research: What worked in the market from 1998-2008? Part I: Introduction of Predictability Rank

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First Northern Community Bancorp (First Northern Community Bancorp) Business Description

Industry

GURUFOCUS.COM » STOCK LIST » Financial Services » Banks » First Northern Community Bancorp (OTCPK:FNRN) » Definitions » Predictability Rank

Comparable Companies

Traded in Other Exchanges

N/A

Address

195 North First Street, Dixon, CA, USA, 95620

Website

https://www.thatsmybank.com

First Northern Community Bancorp is a bank holding company for a community bank, First Northern Bank of Dixon. It conducts general banking activities, including collecting deposits and originating loans and serves Solano, Yolo, Sacramento, Placer, El Dorado, and Contra Costa Counties. It offers a broad range of alternative investment products and services, equipment leasing, credit cards, merchant card processing, payroll services, and limited international banking services. The bank generates majority of its revenue by providing various products and services to small and middle-sized businesses and individuals.

Executives

Jeremiah Zachary Smith	director, officer: President/CEO/Director	195 N. FIRST STREET, P.O. BOX 547, DIXON CA 95620
Jeffrey A Adamski	officer: EVP/Senior Loan Officer	195 N. FIRST STREET, P.O. BOX 547, DIXON CA 95620
Greg Dupratt	director	195 N. 1ST STREET, DIXON CA 95620
Richard M Martinez	director	195 N. FIRST STREET, PO BOX 547, DIXON CA 95620
T Joe Danelson	officer: EVP/Chief Credit Officer	195 N FIRST STREET, DIXON CA 95620
Kimberly A Debra	officer: EVP/Chief Communications Ofcr	195 N. FIRST STREET, P.O. BOX 547, DIXON CA 95620
Patrick R Brady	director	195 N. FIRST STREET, PO BOX 547, DIXON CA 95620
Louise A Walker	officer: SEVP/CFO	195 N. 1ST STREET, DIXON CA 95620
Barbara A Hayes	director	195 N 1ST STREET, DIXON CA 95620
Mark C Schulze	director	195 N 1ST STREET, DIXON CA 95620
Sean P Quinn	director	195 N 1ST STREET, DIXON CA 95620
Kevin Spink	officer: EVP/CFO	195 N 1ST STREET, DIXON CA 95620
Daniel F Ramos	director	195 N 1ST STREET, DIXON CA 95620
Foy S Mcnaughton	director	195 N. 1ST STREET, DIXON CA 95620
Denise Burris	officer: EVP/Chief Information Officer	195 N 1ST STREET, DIXON CA 95620

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