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Forrester Research (Forrester Research) Predictability Rank


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What is Forrester Research Predictability Rank?

3.5 (5)

Warren Buffett said many times that the companies he likes are:

1. Simple businesses that he understands
2. that have predictable and proven earnings and
3. with economic moat
4. those can be bought at a reasonable price.

It is hard to quantify "simple businesses that he (Buffett) understands", so we will focus on the other three characteristics instead. In GuruFocus Research: What worked in the market from 1998-2008? Part I: Introduction of Predictability Rank, we will show that the businesses that have predictable and proven earnings are usually also simple businesses that an average person could understand.

GuruFocus conducted a back test study of Warren Buffett's strategy of "buying good companies at fair prices" for the years from 1998-2008.


Forrester Research Predictability Rank Calculation

In our database there are 2403 stocks that have been traded from Jan. 2, 1998 to Aug. 31, 2008. We have the complete 10-year financial data and trading prices of these companies for this period. We rank the predictability of these companies based on the consistency of their revenue per share and EBITDA (earning before interest, tax, depreciation and amortization) per share over the past ten fiscal years, and study the correlation between the stock performances and the predictability of the business.

Our study may be subject to these biases and assumptions:

Dividend yields are not counted for investment returns
Effects of price changes due to spin-offs may not be fully adjusted
Study is subjected to survivorship bias due to de-listing, bankruptcy, LBO, M&A, etc.

The correlation between business predictability and investment returns of a company is showed below.

Correlation Between Business Predictability and Investment Returns

PredictablesNon-PredictableAll stocks
Total Number of stocks57018332403
Total Lost Money61830891
Total Lost More Than 50%18412430
Total Lost More Than 90%48690
Average Gain260.6%100.0%138.1%
Median Gain150.0%13.0%39.0%
Maximum Gain2852.0%11483.0%11483.0%
Maximum Loss-100.0%-100.0%-100.0%
Annualized Average Gain12.7%6.7%8.4%
Annualized Median Gain8.9%1.1%3.1%


















For the 570 predictable companies, we have seen strong correlation between the predictability of businesses and the stock performances over the past 10 years, regardless of the valuation of business at 1998. Accordingly, we have ranked the business predictability from 5-star to 1-star, as shown in this table.

Predictability Rank5-Star4.5-Star4-Star3.5-Star3-Star2.5-Star2-Star1-Star (non-predictable)Average among all
% Out of All 2403 Stocks 3.3% 2.9% 3.7% 3.3% 3.3% 3.7% 3.3% 76.3% 100%
% that are in Loss (10y) 3% 10% 8% 9% 11% 18% 16% 45% 37%
Average Gain (10y) 364.6% 330.9% 278.0% 235.1% 243.5% 227.8% 154.8% 100.0% 138.1%
Median Gain (10y) 238.5% 193.5% 171.0% 159.0% 132.5% 113.5% 87.0% 13.0% 39.0%
Maximum Gainer 2228.0% 2547.0% 2452.0% 2852.0% 2432.0% 1892.0% 1807.0% 11483.0% 11483.0%
Maximum Loser -82.0% -53.0% -67.0% -100.0% -83.0% -100.0% -78.0% -100.0% -100.0%
Annualized Average Gain 15.4% 14.6% 13.2% 12.0% 12.2% 11.7% 9.1% 6.7% 8.4%
Annualized Median Gain 12.1% 10.6% 9.8% 9.3% 8.2% 7.3% 6.0% 1.1% 3.1%
















For detailed information about each predictability rank, please go to GuruFocus Research: What worked in the market from 1998-2008? Part I: Introduction of Predictability Rank

Also read:

Part II: What worked in the market from 1998-2008? Part II: Role of Valuations
Part III: Intrinsic Value, Discounted Cash Flow and Margin of Safety

Forrester Research Predictability Rank Related Terms

Thank you for viewing the detailed overview of Forrester Research's Predictability Rank provided by GuruFocus.com. Please click on the following links to see related term pages.


Forrester Research (Forrester Research) Business Description

Traded in Other Exchanges
N/A
Address
60 Acorn Park Drive, Cambridge, MA, USA, 02140
Forrester Research Inc is a United States-based company that provides independent research, data, and advisory services. It operates through the following segments: The Research segment develops and delivers research, connect, and analytics products; The consulting segment includes the revenues and the related costs of the company's consulting organization, and the Events segment is engaged in developing and hosting in-person and virtual events.
Executives
Steven P. Peltzman officer: CBTO C/O FORRESTER RESEARCH, INC., 60 ACORN PARK DRIVE, CAMBRIDGE MA 02140
Scott Chouinard officer: Chief Accounting Officer C/O FORRESTER RESEARCH, INC., 400 TECHNOLOGY SQUARE, CAMBRIDGE MA 02139
Carrie Johnson officer: Chief Research Officer C/O FORRESTER RESEARCH, INC., 60 ACORN PARK DRIVE, CAMBRIDGE MA 02140
Ryan Darrah officer: Chief Legal Officer C/O FORRESTER RESEARCH, INC., 60 ACORN PARK DRIVE, CAMBRIDGE MA 02140
Anthony J Friscia director C/O FORRESTER RESEARCH, INC., 60 ACORN PARK DRIVE, CAMBRIDGE MA 02140
Robert Galford director C/O FORRESTER RESEARCH, 400 TECHNOLOGY SQUARE, CAMBRIDGE MA 02139
Alicia Lee officer: Chief Consulting Officer C/O FORRESTER RESEARCH, INC., 60 ACORN PARK DRIVE, CAMBRIDGE MA 02140
Kelley Hippler officer: Chief Sales Officer C/O FORRESTER RESEARCH, INC., 60 ACORN PARK DR., CAMBRIDGE MA 02140
David Boyce director C/O FORRESTER RESEARCH, INC., 60 ACORN PARK DRIVE, CAMBRIDGE MA 02140
Roy Sarah Le officer: Chief People Officer C/O FORRESTER RESEARCH, INC., 60 ACORN PARK DRIVE, CAMBRIDGE MA 02140
Warren N Romine director 7325 16TH STREET NW, WASHINGTON DC 20012
Sharyn Leaver officer: Chief Research Officer C/O FORRESTER RESEARCH, INC., 60 ACORN PARK DRIVE, CAMBRIDGE MA 02140
Nathaniel Swan officer: Chief Sales Officer C/O FORRESTER RESEARCH, INC., 60 ACORN PARK DRIVE, CAMBRIDGE MA 02140
George F Colony director, 10 percent owner, officer: Chairman & CEO C/O FORRESTER RESEARCH INC, 1033 MASSACHUSETTS AVE, CAMBRIDGE MA 02138
Gretchen Teichgraeber director C/O FORRESTER RESEARCH, 400 TECHNOLOGY SQUARE, CAMBRIDGE MA 02139