MSPR (MSP Recovery) Predictability Rank

View and export this data going back to 2022. Start your Free Trial

What is MSP Recovery Predictability Rank?

Not Rated

Warren Buffett said many times that the companies he likes are:

1. Simple businesses that he understands
2. that have predictable and proven earnings and
3. with economic moat
4. those can be bought at a reasonable price.

It is hard to quantify "simple businesses that he (Buffett) understands", so we will focus on the other three characteristics instead. In GuruFocus Research: What worked in the market from 1998-2008? Part I: Introduction of Predictability Rank, we will show that the businesses that have predictable and proven earnings are usually also simple businesses that an average person could understand.

GuruFocus conducted a back test study of Warren Buffett's strategy of "buying good companies at fair prices" for the years from 1998-2008.

MSP Recovery Predictability Rank Calculation

In our database there are 2403 stocks that have been traded from Jan. 2, 1998 to Aug. 31, 2008. We have the complete 10-year financial data and trading prices of these companies for this period. We rank the predictability of these companies based on the consistency of their revenue per share and EBITDA (earning before interest, tax, depreciation and amortization) per share over the past ten fiscal years, and study the correlation between the stock performances and the predictability of the business.

Our study may be subject to these biases and assumptions:

Dividend yields are not counted for investment returns
Effects of price changes due to spin-offs may not be fully adjusted
Study is subjected to survivorship bias due to de-listing, bankruptcy, LBO, M&A, etc.

The correlation between business predictability and investment returns of a company is showed below.

Correlation Between Business Predictability and Investment Returns

	Predictables	Non-Predictable	All stocks
Total Number of stocks	570	1833	2403
Total Lost Money	61	830	891
Total Lost More Than 50%	18	412	430
Total Lost More Than 90%	4	86	90
Average Gain	260.6%	100.0%	138.1%
Median Gain	150.0%	13.0%	39.0%
Maximum Gain	2852.0%	11483.0%	11483.0%
Maximum Loss	-100.0%	-100.0%	-100.0%
Annualized Average Gain	12.7%	6.7%	8.4%
Annualized Median Gain	8.9%	1.1%	3.1%

For the 570 predictable companies, we have seen strong correlation between the predictability of businesses and the stock performances over the past 10 years, regardless of the valuation of business at 1998. Accordingly, we have ranked the business predictability from 5-star to 1-star, as shown in this table.

Predictability Rank	5-Star	4.5-Star	4-Star	3.5-Star	3-Star	2.5-Star	2-Star	1-Star (non-predictable)	Average among all
% Out of All 2403 Stocks	3.3%	2.9%	3.7%	3.3%	3.3%	3.7%	3.3%	76.3%	100%
% that are in Loss (10y)	3%	10%	8%	9%	11%	18%	16%	45%	37%
Average Gain (10y)	364.6%	330.9%	278.0%	235.1%	243.5%	227.8%	154.8%	100.0%	138.1%
Median Gain (10y)	238.5%	193.5%	171.0%	159.0%	132.5%	113.5%	87.0%	13.0%	39.0%
Maximum Gainer	2228.0%	2547.0%	2452.0%	2852.0%	2432.0%	1892.0%	1807.0%	11483.0%	11483.0%
Maximum Loser	-82.0%	-53.0%	-67.0%	-100.0%	-83.0%	-100.0%	-78.0%	-100.0%	-100.0%
Annualized Average Gain	15.4%	14.6%	13.2%	12.0%	12.2%	11.7%	9.1%	6.7%	8.4%
Annualized Median Gain	12.1%	10.6%	9.8%	9.3%	8.2%	7.3%	6.0%	1.1%	3.1%

For detailed information about each predictability rank, please go to GuruFocus Research: What worked in the market from 1998-2008? Part I: Introduction of Predictability Rank

MSP Recovery Predictability Rank Related Terms

Thank you for viewing the detailed overview of MSP Recovery's Predictability Rank provided by GuruFocus.com. Please click on the following links to see related term pages.

MSP Recovery Business Description

Industry

GURUFOCUS.COM » STOCK LIST » Healthcare » Healthcare Providers & Services » MSP Recovery Inc (NAS:MSPR) » Definitions » Predictability Rank

Comparable Companies

Traded in Other Exchanges

N/A

Address

2701 South Le Jeune Road, 10th Floor, Coral Gables, FL, USA, 33134

Website

https://www.msprecovery.com

MSP Recovery Inc is a healthcare recovery and data analytics company. The business model includes two principal lines of business: Claims Recovery and Chase to Pay Services. It offers an antiquated healthcare reimbursement system with data-driven solutions to secure recoveries against responsible parties. MSP Recovery provides the healthcare industry with comprehensive compliance solutions platform to recover any claims where the law places primary payment responsibility on another payer.

Executives

John Hasan Ruiz	director, 10 percent owner, officer: Chief Executive Officer	C/O MSP RECOVERY, 2701 S LE JEUNE ROAD, 10TH FLOOR, CORAL GABLES FL 33134-5809
Cano Health, Inc.	10 percent owner	9725 NW 117TH AVENUE, SUITE 200, MIAMI FL 33178
Frank Carlos Quesada	director, 10 percent owner, officer: See Remarks	C/O MSP RECOVERY, 2701 S LE JEUNE ROAD, 10TH FLOOR, CORAL GABLES FL 33134-5809
Ricardo Rivera	officer: See Remarks	C/O MSP RECOVERY, 2701 S LE JEUNE ROAD, 10TH FLOOR, CORAL GABLES FL 33134-5809
Nomura Securities International Inc	10 percent owner	WORLDWIDE PLAZA, 309 WEST 49TH STREET, NEW YORK NY 10019
Calvin Hamstra	officer: Chief Financial Officer	2701 S LE JEUNE ROAD, 10TH FLOOR, CORAL GABLES FL 33134-5809
Alexandra Marie Plasencia	officer: General Counsel	C/O MSP RECOVERY, 2701 S LE JEUNE ROAD, 10TH FLOOR, CORAL GABLES FL 33134-5809
Thomas W Hawkins	director	GERALD STEVENS INC, PO BOX 350526, FORT LAUDERDALE FL 33335-0526
Ophir Sternberg	director, 10 percent owner	C/O OPES ACQUISITION CORP., JAVIER BARROS SIERRA 540, OF. 103, MEXICO CITY O5 01210
Michael Frederick Arrigo	director	2701 S LE JEUNE ROAD, 10TH FLOOR, CORAL GABLES FL 33134-5809
Nomura Holdings Inc	10 percent owner	1-13-1 NIHONBASHI, CHUO-KU, TOKYO M0 103-8645
Oliver Spv Holdings Llc	10 percent owner	822 OLIVER ST., WOODMERE NY 11598
Boris Hirmas	10 percent owner	4128 NE 2ND AVENUE, MIAMI FL 33137
Jls Equities Llc	10 percent owner	58 LARCH HILL ROAD, LAWRENCE NY 11559
Jessica Wasserstrom	10 percent owner	4128 NE 2ND AVENUE, MIAMI FL 33137