OSCR (Oscar Health) Predictability Rank

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What is Oscar Health Predictability Rank?

Not Rated

Warren Buffett said many times that the companies he likes are:

1. Simple businesses that he understands
2. that have predictable and proven earnings and
3. with economic moat
4. those can be bought at a reasonable price.

It is hard to quantify "simple businesses that he (Buffett) understands", so we will focus on the other three characteristics instead. In GuruFocus Research: What worked in the market from 1998-2008? Part I: Introduction of Predictability Rank, we will show that the businesses that have predictable and proven earnings are usually also simple businesses that an average person could understand.

GuruFocus conducted a back test study of Warren Buffett's strategy of "buying good companies at fair prices" for the years from 1998-2008.

Oscar Health Predictability Rank Calculation

In our database there are 2403 stocks that have been traded from Jan. 2, 1998 to Aug. 31, 2008. We have the complete 10-year financial data and trading prices of these companies for this period. We rank the predictability of these companies based on the consistency of their revenue per share and EBITDA (earning before interest, tax, depreciation and amortization) per share over the past ten fiscal years, and study the correlation between the stock performances and the predictability of the business.

Our study may be subject to these biases and assumptions:

Dividend yields are not counted for investment returns
Effects of price changes due to spin-offs may not be fully adjusted
Study is subjected to survivorship bias due to de-listing, bankruptcy, LBO, M&A, etc.

The correlation between business predictability and investment returns of a company is showed below.

Correlation Between Business Predictability and Investment Returns

	Predictables	Non-Predictable	All stocks
Total Number of stocks	570	1833	2403
Total Lost Money	61	830	891
Total Lost More Than 50%	18	412	430
Total Lost More Than 90%	4	86	90
Average Gain	260.6%	100.0%	138.1%
Median Gain	150.0%	13.0%	39.0%
Maximum Gain	2852.0%	11483.0%	11483.0%
Maximum Loss	-100.0%	-100.0%	-100.0%
Annualized Average Gain	12.7%	6.7%	8.4%
Annualized Median Gain	8.9%	1.1%	3.1%

For the 570 predictable companies, we have seen strong correlation between the predictability of businesses and the stock performances over the past 10 years, regardless of the valuation of business at 1998. Accordingly, we have ranked the business predictability from 5-star to 1-star, as shown in this table.

Predictability Rank	5-Star	4.5-Star	4-Star	3.5-Star	3-Star	2.5-Star	2-Star	1-Star (non-predictable)	Average among all
% Out of All 2403 Stocks	3.3%	2.9%	3.7%	3.3%	3.3%	3.7%	3.3%	76.3%	100%
% that are in Loss (10y)	3%	10%	8%	9%	11%	18%	16%	45%	37%
Average Gain (10y)	364.6%	330.9%	278.0%	235.1%	243.5%	227.8%	154.8%	100.0%	138.1%
Median Gain (10y)	238.5%	193.5%	171.0%	159.0%	132.5%	113.5%	87.0%	13.0%	39.0%
Maximum Gainer	2228.0%	2547.0%	2452.0%	2852.0%	2432.0%	1892.0%	1807.0%	11483.0%	11483.0%
Maximum Loser	-82.0%	-53.0%	-67.0%	-100.0%	-83.0%	-100.0%	-78.0%	-100.0%	-100.0%
Annualized Average Gain	15.4%	14.6%	13.2%	12.0%	12.2%	11.7%	9.1%	6.7%	8.4%
Annualized Median Gain	12.1%	10.6%	9.8%	9.3%	8.2%	7.3%	6.0%	1.1%	3.1%

For detailed information about each predictability rank, please go to GuruFocus Research: What worked in the market from 1998-2008? Part I: Introduction of Predictability Rank

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Oscar Health Business Description

Industry

GURUFOCUS.COM » STOCK LIST » Healthcare » Healthcare Plans » Oscar Health Inc (NYSE:OSCR) » Definitions » Predictability Rank

Comparable Companies

Traded in Other Exchanges

OSCR:Mexico

Address

75 Varick Street, 5th Floor, New York, NY, USA, 10013

Website

https://www.hioscar.com

Oscar Health Inc is a health insurance company. The company provides various insurance plans for individuals, families, and employees. Also, the company provides virtual care, doctor support, scheduling appointments, and other related services. The company provides plans in the Medicare Advantage program to adults who are age 65 and older and eligible for traditional Medicare but who instead select coverage through a private market plan.

Executives

Robinson Elbert O. Jr.	director	C/O OSCAR HEALTH, INC., 75 VARICK STREET, 5TH FLOOR, NEW YORK NY 10013
Alessandrea C. Quane	officer: EVP, Chief Insurance Officer	175 WATER STREET, NEW YORK NY 10038
Richard Scott Blackley	officer: Chief Financial Officer	1680 CAPITAL ONE DRIVE, MCLEAN VA 22102
Mario Schlosser	director, officer: Chief Executive Officer	C/O OSCAR HEALTH, INC., 75 VARICK STREET, 5TH FLOOR, NEW YORK NY 10013
Ranmali Bopitiya	officer: EVP & Chief Legal Officer	C/O OSCAR HEALTH, INC., 75 VARICK STREET, 5TH FLOOR, NEW YORK NY 10013
Victoria Baltrus	officer: Chief Accounting Officer	C/O OSCAR HEALTH, INC., 75 VARICK STREET, 5TH FLOOR, NEW YORK NY 10013
Joshua Kushner	director, 10 percent owner, officer: See Remarks	C/O OSCAR HEALTH, INC., 75 VARICK STREET, 5TH FLOOR, NEW YORK NY 10013
Thrive Partners Vii Growth Gp, Llc	10 percent owner	295 LAFAYETTE STREET, NEW YORK NY 10012
Sid Sankaran	director, officer: Chief Financial Officer	180 MAIDEN LANE, NEW YORK NY 10038
Alphabet Inc.	10 percent owner	1600 AMPHITHEATRE PARKWAY, MOUNTAIN VIEW CA 94043
Mark T Bertolini	director, officer: Chief Executive Officer	AETNA INC., 151 FARMINGTON AVENUE, HARTFORD CT 06156
William Gassen	director	75 VARICK STREET, 5TH FLOOR, NEW YORK CITY NY 10013
Laura W Lang	director	DIGITAS INC., 800 BOYLSTON STREET, BOSTON MA 02199
Dennis Weaver	officer: Chief Clinical Officer	C/O OSCAR HEALTH, INC., 75 VARICK STREET, 5TH FLOOR, NEW YORK NY 10013
Meghan V. Joyce	officer: Chief Operating Officer	THE BOSTON BEER COMPANY, INC., ONE DESIGN CENTER PL., STE. 850, BOSTON MA 02210