What is Southern Missouri Bancorp Predictability Rank?
5 (5)
Warren Buffett said many times that the companies he likes are:
1. Simple businesses that he understands
2. that have predictable and proven earnings and
3. with economic moat
4. those can be bought at a reasonable price.
It is hard to quantify "simple businesses that he (Buffett) understands", so we will focus on the other three characteristics instead. In GuruFocus Research: What worked in the market from 1998-2008? Part I: Introduction of Predictability Rank, we will show that the businesses that have predictable and proven earnings are usually also simple businesses that an average person could understand.
GuruFocus conducted a back test study of Warren Buffett's strategy of "buying good companies at fair prices" for the years from 1998-2008.
Southern Missouri Bancorp Predictability Rank Calculation
In our database there are 2403 stocks that have been traded from Jan. 2, 1998 to Aug. 31, 2008. We have the complete 10-year financial data and trading prices of these companies for this period. We rank the predictability of these companies based on the consistency of their revenue per share and EBITDA (earning before interest, tax, depreciation and amortization) per share over the past ten fiscal years, and study the correlation between the stock performances and the predictability of the business.
Our study may be subject to these biases and assumptions:
Dividend yields are not counted for investment returns
Effects of price changes due to spin-offs may not be fully adjusted
Study is subjected to survivorship bias due to de-listing, bankruptcy, LBO, M&A, etc.
The correlation between business predictability and investment returns of a company is showed below.
Correlation Between Business Predictability and Investment Returns
| Predictables | Non-Predictable | All stocks |
|---|
| Total Number of stocks | 570 | 1833 | 2403 |
| Total Lost Money | 61 | 830 | 891 |
| Total Lost More Than 50% | 18 | 412 | 430 |
| Total Lost More Than 90% | 4 | 86 | 90 |
| Average Gain | 260.6% | 100.0% | 138.1% |
| Median Gain | 150.0% | 13.0% | 39.0% |
| Maximum Gain | 2852.0% | 11483.0% | 11483.0% |
| Maximum Loss | -100.0% | -100.0% | -100.0% |
| Annualized Average Gain | 12.7% | 6.7% | 8.4% |
| Annualized Median Gain | 8.9% | 1.1% | 3.1% |
For the 570 predictable companies, we have seen strong correlation between the predictability of businesses and the stock performances over the past 10 years, regardless of the valuation of business at 1998. Accordingly, we have ranked the business predictability from 5-star to 1-star, as shown in this table.
| Predictability Rank | 5-Star | 4.5-Star | 4-Star | 3.5-Star | 3-Star | 2.5-Star | 2-Star | 1-Star (non-predictable) | Average among all |
|---|
| % Out of All 2403 Stocks |
3.3% |
2.9% |
3.7% |
3.3% |
3.3% |
3.7% |
3.3% |
76.3% |
100% |
| % that are in Loss (10y) |
3% |
10% |
8% |
9% |
11% |
18% |
16% |
45% |
37% |
| Average Gain (10y) |
364.6% |
330.9% |
278.0% |
235.1% |
243.5% |
227.8% |
154.8% |
100.0% |
138.1% |
| Median Gain (10y) |
238.5% |
193.5% |
171.0% |
159.0% |
132.5% |
113.5% |
87.0% |
13.0% |
39.0% |
| Maximum Gainer |
2228.0% |
2547.0% |
2452.0% |
2852.0% |
2432.0% |
1892.0% |
1807.0% |
11483.0% |
11483.0% |
| Maximum Loser |
-82.0% |
-53.0% |
-67.0% |
-100.0% |
-83.0% |
-100.0% |
-78.0% |
-100.0% |
-100.0% |
| Annualized Average Gain |
15.4% |
14.6% |
13.2% |
12.0% |
12.2% |
11.7% |
9.1% |
6.7% |
8.4% |
| Annualized Median Gain |
12.1% |
10.6% |
9.8% |
9.3% |
8.2% |
7.3% |
6.0% |
1.1% |
3.1% |
For detailed information about each predictability rank, please go to GuruFocus Research: What worked in the market from 1998-2008? Part I: Introduction of Predictability Rank
Also read:
Part II: What worked in the market from 1998-2008? Part II: Role of Valuations
Part III: Intrinsic Value, Discounted Cash Flow and Margin of Safety
Southern Missouri Bancorp (Southern Missouri Bancorp) Business Description
Traded in Other Exchanges
N/A
Address
2991 Oak Grove Road, Poplar Bluff, MO, USA, 63901
Southern Missouri Bancorp Inc is a us-based holding company for Southern Missouri Savings Bank. The principal business of the bank consists of attracting retail deposits from the general public and using such deposits along with wholesale funding from the Federal Home Loan Bank of Des Moines, and to a lesser extent, brokered deposits, to invest in one- to four-family residential mortgage loans, mortgage loans secured by commercial real estate, commercial non-mortgage business loans, and consumer loans. It is engaged in providing the range of banking and financial services to individuals and corporate customers in its market areas. The company derives revenue principally from interest earned on loans, debt securities, bank card interchange fees, loan late charges and another fee income.
Executives
| Stefan Chkautovich |
officer: Chief Financial Officer |
2991 OAK GROVE RD, POPLAR BLUFF MO 639012 |
| Dennis C Robison |
director |
C/O SOUTHERN MISSOURI BANCORP INC, 531 VINE STREET, POPLAR BLUFF MO 63901 |
| Matthew T Funke |
officer: Chief Financial Officer |
C/O SOUTHERN MISSOURI BANCORP INC, 531 VINE STREET, POPLAR BLUFF MO 63901 |
| Daniel Lee Jones |
director |
2991 OAK GROVE RD., POPLAR BLUFF MO 63901 |
| Brett Dorton |
officer: EVP, Chief Strategies Officer |
C/O SOUTHERN MISSOURI BANCORP, INC., 2991 OAK GROVE ROAD, POPLAR BLUFF MO 63901 |
| Greg A Steffens |
director, officer: President |
C/O SOUTHERN MISSOURI BANCORP INC, 531 VINE STREET, POPLAR BLUFF MO 63901-7330 |
| William E Young |
director |
2991 OAK GROVE RD, POPLAR BLUFF MO 63901 |
| David L Mcclain |
director |
2991 OAK GROVE RD, POPLAR BLUFF MO 63901 |
| Lance K Greunke |
officer: Executive Vice President |
2991 OAK GROVE ROAD, POPLAR BLUFF MO 63901 |
| Charles R Love |
director |
1469 CO. RD. 468, POPLAR BLUFF MO 63901 |
| Sammy A Schalk |
director |
C/O SOUTHERN MISSOURI BANCORP INC, 531 VINE STREET, POPLAR BLUFF MO 63901-7330 |
| Martin Weishaar |
officer: Chief Legal Officer |
SOUTHERN MISSOURI BANCORP, INC., 2991 OAK GROVE ROAD, POPLAR BLUFF MO 63901 |
| Douglas Bagby |
director |
C/O SOUTHERN MISSOURI BANCORP INC, 531 VINE STREET, POPLAR BLUFF MO 63901-7330 |
| Mark E Hecker |
officer: EVP, Chief Credit Officer |
16 WEST FRANKLIN STREET, LIBERTY MO 64068 |
| Richard Windes |
officer: Chief Lending Officer |
C/O SOUTHERN MISSOURI BANCORP, INC., 2991 OAK GROVE ROAD, POPLAR BLUFF MO 63901 |
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