Tri City Bankshares (Tri City Bankshares) Predictability Rank

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What is Tri City Bankshares Predictability Rank?

Warren Buffett said many times that the companies he likes are:

1. Simple businesses that he understands
2. that have predictable and proven earnings and
3. with economic moat
4. those can be bought at a reasonable price.

It is hard to quantify "simple businesses that he (Buffett) understands", so we will focus on the other three characteristics instead. In GuruFocus Research: What worked in the market from 1998-2008? Part I: Introduction of Predictability Rank, we will show that the businesses that have predictable and proven earnings are usually also simple businesses that an average person could understand.

GuruFocus conducted a back test study of Warren Buffett's strategy of "buying good companies at fair prices" for the years from 1998-2008.

Tri City Bankshares Predictability Rank Calculation

In our database there are 2403 stocks that have been traded from Jan. 2, 1998 to Aug. 31, 2008. We have the complete 10-year financial data and trading prices of these companies for this period. We rank the predictability of these companies based on the consistency of their revenue per share and EBITDA (earning before interest, tax, depreciation and amortization) per share over the past ten fiscal years, and study the correlation between the stock performances and the predictability of the business.

Our study may be subject to these biases and assumptions:

Dividend yields are not counted for investment returns
Effects of price changes due to spin-offs may not be fully adjusted
Study is subjected to survivorship bias due to de-listing, bankruptcy, LBO, M&A, etc.

The correlation between business predictability and investment returns of a company is showed below.

Correlation Between Business Predictability and Investment Returns

	Predictables	Non-Predictable	All stocks
Total Number of stocks	570	1833	2403
Total Lost Money	61	830	891
Total Lost More Than 50%	18	412	430
Total Lost More Than 90%	4	86	90
Average Gain	260.6%	100.0%	138.1%
Median Gain	150.0%	13.0%	39.0%
Maximum Gain	2852.0%	11483.0%	11483.0%
Maximum Loss	-100.0%	-100.0%	-100.0%
Annualized Average Gain	12.7%	6.7%	8.4%
Annualized Median Gain	8.9%	1.1%	3.1%

For the 570 predictable companies, we have seen strong correlation between the predictability of businesses and the stock performances over the past 10 years, regardless of the valuation of business at 1998. Accordingly, we have ranked the business predictability from 5-star to 1-star, as shown in this table.

Predictability Rank	5-Star	4.5-Star	4-Star	3.5-Star	3-Star	2.5-Star	2-Star	1-Star (non-predictable)	Average among all
% Out of All 2403 Stocks	3.3%	2.9%	3.7%	3.3%	3.3%	3.7%	3.3%	76.3%	100%
% that are in Loss (10y)	3%	10%	8%	9%	11%	18%	16%	45%	37%
Average Gain (10y)	364.6%	330.9%	278.0%	235.1%	243.5%	227.8%	154.8%	100.0%	138.1%
Median Gain (10y)	238.5%	193.5%	171.0%	159.0%	132.5%	113.5%	87.0%	13.0%	39.0%
Maximum Gainer	2228.0%	2547.0%	2452.0%	2852.0%	2432.0%	1892.0%	1807.0%	11483.0%	11483.0%
Maximum Loser	-82.0%	-53.0%	-67.0%	-100.0%	-83.0%	-100.0%	-78.0%	-100.0%	-100.0%
Annualized Average Gain	15.4%	14.6%	13.2%	12.0%	12.2%	11.7%	9.1%	6.7%	8.4%
Annualized Median Gain	12.1%	10.6%	9.8%	9.3%	8.2%	7.3%	6.0%	1.1%	3.1%

For detailed information about each predictability rank, please go to GuruFocus Research: What worked in the market from 1998-2008? Part I: Introduction of Predictability Rank

Tri City Bankshares Predictability Rank Related Terms

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Tri City Bankshares (Tri City Bankshares) Business Description

Industry

GURUFOCUS.COM » STOCK LIST » Financial Services » Banks » Tri City Bankshares Corp (OTCPK:TRCY) » Definitions » Predictability Rank

Comparable Companies

Traded in Other Exchanges

N/A

Address

6400 South 27th Street, Oak Creek, WI, USA, 53154

Website

https://www.tcnb.com

Tri City Bankshares Corp is a bank holding company. It provides consumer and commercial banking services to individuals and businesses. The services provided by the bank are loan facilities, credit card facilities, reverse mortgages, online banking services, business cards, savings facilities, and other services. It has one reportable segment community banking.

Executives

Christ Krantz	director	9999 W NORTH AVE, STE 115, WAUWATOSA WI 53226
Frederick R Klug	officer: Sr. Vice President & CFO
Scott D Geradin	director, officer: Senior Vice President	6400 S 27TH STREET, OAK CREEK WI 53154
William Gravitter	director
Frank Bauer	director	W312 S5860 DABLE ROAD, MUKWONAGO WI 53149
Thomas G Ulrich	other: See remarks below	P.O. BOX 180437, DELAFIELD WI 53018-1590
Ulrich Voting Trust	10 percent owner	C/O KATHLEEN L. MCGARRY, VOTING TRUSTEE, P.O.BOX 180437, DELAFIELD WI 53018-0437
Kathleen L Mcgarry	other: See remarks below	P.O. BOX 180437, DELAFIELD WI 53018-0437
Scott A Wilson	director, officer: Sr. Vice Pres./Secretary	8410 S 29TH STREET, OAK CREED WI 53154
Sanford Fedderly	director	161 E BAY RIDGE DRIVE, FORT LAUDERDALE FL 33326
Brian T Mcgarry	director	P.O. BOX 180437, DELAFIELD WI 53018-0437
Agatha T Ulrich	director, 10 percent owner
Ulrich David A Jr	director	7388 TRINITY COURT, FRANKLIN WI 53132
William N Beres	director	21095 STRATFORD COURT, BROOKFIELD WI 53045
Robert W Orth	director, officer: Senior Vice President	8410 S 29TH STREET, OAK CREED WI 53154

Tri City Bankshares (Tri City Bankshares) Headlines

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