WVS Financial (WVS Financial) Predictability Rank

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What is WVS Financial Predictability Rank?

Warren Buffett said many times that the companies he likes are:

1. Simple businesses that he understands
2. that have predictable and proven earnings and
3. with economic moat
4. those can be bought at a reasonable price.

It is hard to quantify "simple businesses that he (Buffett) understands", so we will focus on the other three characteristics instead. In GuruFocus Research: What worked in the market from 1998-2008? Part I: Introduction of Predictability Rank, we will show that the businesses that have predictable and proven earnings are usually also simple businesses that an average person could understand.

GuruFocus conducted a back test study of Warren Buffett's strategy of "buying good companies at fair prices" for the years from 1998-2008.

WVS Financial Predictability Rank Calculation

In our database there are 2403 stocks that have been traded from Jan. 2, 1998 to Aug. 31, 2008. We have the complete 10-year financial data and trading prices of these companies for this period. We rank the predictability of these companies based on the consistency of their revenue per share and EBITDA (earning before interest, tax, depreciation and amortization) per share over the past ten fiscal years, and study the correlation between the stock performances and the predictability of the business.

Our study may be subject to these biases and assumptions:

Dividend yields are not counted for investment returns
Effects of price changes due to spin-offs may not be fully adjusted
Study is subjected to survivorship bias due to de-listing, bankruptcy, LBO, M&A, etc.

The correlation between business predictability and investment returns of a company is showed below.

Correlation Between Business Predictability and Investment Returns

	Predictables	Non-Predictable	All stocks
Total Number of stocks	570	1833	2403
Total Lost Money	61	830	891
Total Lost More Than 50%	18	412	430
Total Lost More Than 90%	4	86	90
Average Gain	260.6%	100.0%	138.1%
Median Gain	150.0%	13.0%	39.0%
Maximum Gain	2852.0%	11483.0%	11483.0%
Maximum Loss	-100.0%	-100.0%	-100.0%
Annualized Average Gain	12.7%	6.7%	8.4%
Annualized Median Gain	8.9%	1.1%	3.1%

For the 570 predictable companies, we have seen strong correlation between the predictability of businesses and the stock performances over the past 10 years, regardless of the valuation of business at 1998. Accordingly, we have ranked the business predictability from 5-star to 1-star, as shown in this table.

Predictability Rank	5-Star	4.5-Star	4-Star	3.5-Star	3-Star	2.5-Star	2-Star	1-Star (non-predictable)	Average among all
% Out of All 2403 Stocks	3.3%	2.9%	3.7%	3.3%	3.3%	3.7%	3.3%	76.3%	100%
% that are in Loss (10y)	3%	10%	8%	9%	11%	18%	16%	45%	37%
Average Gain (10y)	364.6%	330.9%	278.0%	235.1%	243.5%	227.8%	154.8%	100.0%	138.1%
Median Gain (10y)	238.5%	193.5%	171.0%	159.0%	132.5%	113.5%	87.0%	13.0%	39.0%
Maximum Gainer	2228.0%	2547.0%	2452.0%	2852.0%	2432.0%	1892.0%	1807.0%	11483.0%	11483.0%
Maximum Loser	-82.0%	-53.0%	-67.0%	-100.0%	-83.0%	-100.0%	-78.0%	-100.0%	-100.0%
Annualized Average Gain	15.4%	14.6%	13.2%	12.0%	12.2%	11.7%	9.1%	6.7%	8.4%
Annualized Median Gain	12.1%	10.6%	9.8%	9.3%	8.2%	7.3%	6.0%	1.1%	3.1%

For detailed information about each predictability rank, please go to GuruFocus Research: What worked in the market from 1998-2008? Part I: Introduction of Predictability Rank

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WVS Financial (WVS Financial) Business Description

Industry

GURUFOCUS.COM » STOCK LIST » Financial Services » Banks » WVS Financial Corp (OTCPK:WVFC) » Definitions » Predictability Rank

Comparable Companies

Traded in Other Exchanges

N/A

Address

9001 Perry Highway, Pittsburgh, PA, USA, 15237

Website

https://www.wvsbank.com

WVS Financial Corp provides various banking products and services to residents and businesses. The principal categories of loans in the portfolio are single-family and multi-family residential real estate loans, commercial real estate loans, construction loans, consumer loans, and commercial loans. The company offers various deposit products, including regular savings accounts, demand accounts, negotiable order of withdrawal accounts, money market deposit accounts, and certificates of deposit, as well as individual retirement account certificates.

Executives

Twomey Edward F Iii	director	10081 OAKRIDGE DRIVE, WEXFORD PA 15090
Howard John A Jr	director
Mary Magestro-johnston	officer: VP,Treas,Chief Acctg Officer	9001 PERRY HIGHWAY, PITTSBURGH PA 15237
Lawrence M Lehman	director	WVS FINANCIAL CORP, 9001 PERRY HIGHWAY, PITTSBURGH PA 15237
Linda K Butia	officer: VP, Treas, Chief Acctg Officer	2413 BELLWOOD DRIVE, PITTSBURGH PA 15237
Margaret Vonderau	director	WVS FINANCIAL CORP, 9001 PERRY HIGHWAY, PITTSBURGH PA 15237
Bernard P Lefke	officer: VP Savings	9001 PERRY HIGHWAY, PITTSBURGH PA 15237
Keith A Simpson	officer: V.P., Treasurer & CAO	WVS FINANCIAL CORP, 9001 PERRY HIGHWAY, PITTSBURGH PA 15237
Joseph W Unger	director	3467 BABCOCK BOULEVARD, PITTSBURGH PA 15237
Michael R Rutan	officer: SR. VP - OPERATIONS	9356 ALMAR PLACE, PITTSBURGH PA 15237
Donald E Hook	director	WVS FINANCIAL CORP, 9001 PERRY HIGHWAY, PITTSBURGH PA 15237
John W Grace	director	9001 PERRY HIGHWAY, PITTSBURGH PA 15237
Arthur H Brandt	director	WVS FINANCIAL CORP, 9001 PERRY HIGHWAY, PITTSBURGH PA 15237
David L Aeberli	director	WVS FINANCIAL CORP, 9001 PERRY HIGHWAY, PITTSBURGH PA 15237
David J Bursic	director, officer: President/CEO/Director	C/O WVS FINANCIAL CORP, 9001 PERRY HIGHWAY, PITTSBURGH PA 15237