AppTech Payments (AppTech Payments) Predictability Rank

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What is AppTech Payments Predictability Rank?

Warren Buffett said many times that the companies he likes are:

1. Simple businesses that he understands
2. that have predictable and proven earnings and
3. with economic moat
4. those can be bought at a reasonable price.

It is hard to quantify "simple businesses that he (Buffett) understands", so we will focus on the other three characteristics instead. In GuruFocus Research: What worked in the market from 1998-2008? Part I: Introduction of Predictability Rank, we will show that the businesses that have predictable and proven earnings are usually also simple businesses that an average person could understand.

GuruFocus conducted a back test study of Warren Buffett's strategy of "buying good companies at fair prices" for the years from 1998-2008.

AppTech Payments Predictability Rank Calculation

In our database there are 2403 stocks that have been traded from Jan. 2, 1998 to Aug. 31, 2008. We have the complete 10-year financial data and trading prices of these companies for this period. We rank the predictability of these companies based on the consistency of their revenue per share and EBITDA (earning before interest, tax, depreciation and amortization) per share over the past ten fiscal years, and study the correlation between the stock performances and the predictability of the business.

Our study may be subject to these biases and assumptions:

Dividend yields are not counted for investment returns
Effects of price changes due to spin-offs may not be fully adjusted
Study is subjected to survivorship bias due to de-listing, bankruptcy, LBO, M&A, etc.

The correlation between business predictability and investment returns of a company is showed below.

Correlation Between Business Predictability and Investment Returns

	Predictables	Non-Predictable	All stocks
Total Number of stocks	570	1833	2403
Total Lost Money	61	830	891
Total Lost More Than 50%	18	412	430
Total Lost More Than 90%	4	86	90
Average Gain	260.6%	100.0%	138.1%
Median Gain	150.0%	13.0%	39.0%
Maximum Gain	2852.0%	11483.0%	11483.0%
Maximum Loss	-100.0%	-100.0%	-100.0%
Annualized Average Gain	12.7%	6.7%	8.4%
Annualized Median Gain	8.9%	1.1%	3.1%

For the 570 predictable companies, we have seen strong correlation between the predictability of businesses and the stock performances over the past 10 years, regardless of the valuation of business at 1998. Accordingly, we have ranked the business predictability from 5-star to 1-star, as shown in this table.

Predictability Rank	5-Star	4.5-Star	4-Star	3.5-Star	3-Star	2.5-Star	2-Star	1-Star (non-predictable)	Average among all
% Out of All 2403 Stocks	3.3%	2.9%	3.7%	3.3%	3.3%	3.7%	3.3%	76.3%	100%
% that are in Loss (10y)	3%	10%	8%	9%	11%	18%	16%	45%	37%
Average Gain (10y)	364.6%	330.9%	278.0%	235.1%	243.5%	227.8%	154.8%	100.0%	138.1%
Median Gain (10y)	238.5%	193.5%	171.0%	159.0%	132.5%	113.5%	87.0%	13.0%	39.0%
Maximum Gainer	2228.0%	2547.0%	2452.0%	2852.0%	2432.0%	1892.0%	1807.0%	11483.0%	11483.0%
Maximum Loser	-82.0%	-53.0%	-67.0%	-100.0%	-83.0%	-100.0%	-78.0%	-100.0%	-100.0%
Annualized Average Gain	15.4%	14.6%	13.2%	12.0%	12.2%	11.7%	9.1%	6.7%	8.4%
Annualized Median Gain	12.1%	10.6%	9.8%	9.3%	8.2%	7.3%	6.0%	1.1%	3.1%

For detailed information about each predictability rank, please go to GuruFocus Research: What worked in the market from 1998-2008? Part I: Introduction of Predictability Rank

AppTech Payments Predictability Rank Related Terms

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AppTech Payments (AppTech Payments) Business Description

Industry

GURUFOCUS.COM » STOCK LIST » Technology » Software » AppTech Payments Corp (NAS:APCX) » Definitions » Predictability Rank

Comparable Companies

Traded in Other Exchanges

N/A

Address

5876 Owens Avenue, Suite 100, Carlsbad, CA, USA, 92008

Website

https://www.apptechcorp.com

AppTech Payments Corp is a FinTech company utilizing various payment processing and digital banking technologies to complement core merchant services capabilities. The company's patented and proprietary software will provide progressive and adaptable products that are available through a suite of synergistic offerings directly to merchants, banking institutions, and business enterprises. It is developing a secure digital payments and banking platform that powers commerce experiences for clients and customers. Based upon industry standards for payment and banking protocols, it will offer standalone products and fully integrated solutions that deliver unparalleled payments, banking, and financial services experiences.

Executives

Chad Nelley	officer: COO	5876 OWENS AVE, SUITE #100, CARLSBAD CA 92008
Benjamin D Jenkins	officer: CTO	5876 OWENS AVE., SUITE 100, CARLSBAD CA 92008
Christopher S Williams	director	5876 OWENS AVE, SUITE 100, CARLSBAD CA 92008
Michael A. O'neal	director	C/O NORTEK SECURITY & CONTROL LLC, 1950 CAMINO VIDA ROBLE, CARLSBAD CA 92008
William Huff	director	2275 RIO BONITO WAY, SUITE 210, SAN DIEGO CA 92108
Mengyin H Liang	director	124 STELLAR, IRVINE CA 92618
Marc D Evans	officer: Corporate Secretary	5876 OWENS AVE, SUITE 100, CARLSBAD CA 92008
Michael Yadgar	director	PO BOX 259, MANAMA C6 00000
Ventures Ndigital	10 percent owner	C/O INFINIOS SOLUTIONS (BAHRAIN) W.L.L., PO BOX 11970, MANAMA C6 00000
Virgil Llapitan	other: Executive Vice President	2302 ALTISMA WAY, 104, CARLSBAD CA 92009
Michael B Gross	director	5876 OWENS AVENUE, SUITE 100, CARLSBAD CA 92008
Jeffrey Moriarty	officer: Secretary	12545 PARISH ROAD, SAN DIEGO CA 92128
Gary B Wachs	director, officer: Chief Financial Officer	23500 MERCANTILE RD, SUITE A, BEACHWOOD OH 44122
Luke Damian D'angelo	director, 10 percent owner, officer: Executive Director, Chairman	2011 PALOMAR AIRPORT ROAD, SUITE 102, CARLSBAD CA 92011
Timothy J Connolly	director, 10 percent owner, officer: President and CEO	1770 ST JAMES PLACE, SUITE 116, HOUSTON TX 77056