American Express Co (American Express Co) Predictability Rank

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What is American Express Co Predictability Rank?

Warren Buffett said many times that the companies he likes are:

1. Simple businesses that he understands
2. that have predictable and proven earnings and
3. with economic moat
4. those can be bought at a reasonable price.

It is hard to quantify "simple businesses that he (Buffett) understands", so we will focus on the other three characteristics instead. In GuruFocus Research: What worked in the market from 1998-2008? Part I: Introduction of Predictability Rank, we will show that the businesses that have predictable and proven earnings are usually also simple businesses that an average person could understand.

GuruFocus conducted a back test study of Warren Buffett's strategy of "buying good companies at fair prices" for the years from 1998-2008.

American Express Co Predictability Rank Calculation

In our database there are 2403 stocks that have been traded from Jan. 2, 1998 to Aug. 31, 2008. We have the complete 10-year financial data and trading prices of these companies for this period. We rank the predictability of these companies based on the consistency of their revenue per share and EBITDA (earning before interest, tax, depreciation and amortization) per share over the past ten fiscal years, and study the correlation between the stock performances and the predictability of the business.

Our study may be subject to these biases and assumptions:

Dividend yields are not counted for investment returns
Effects of price changes due to spin-offs may not be fully adjusted
Study is subjected to survivorship bias due to de-listing, bankruptcy, LBO, M&A, etc.

The correlation between business predictability and investment returns of a company is showed below.

Correlation Between Business Predictability and Investment Returns

	Predictables	Non-Predictable	All stocks
Total Number of stocks	570	1833	2403
Total Lost Money	61	830	891
Total Lost More Than 50%	18	412	430
Total Lost More Than 90%	4	86	90
Average Gain	260.6%	100.0%	138.1%
Median Gain	150.0%	13.0%	39.0%
Maximum Gain	2852.0%	11483.0%	11483.0%
Maximum Loss	-100.0%	-100.0%	-100.0%
Annualized Average Gain	12.7%	6.7%	8.4%
Annualized Median Gain	8.9%	1.1%	3.1%

For the 570 predictable companies, we have seen strong correlation between the predictability of businesses and the stock performances over the past 10 years, regardless of the valuation of business at 1998. Accordingly, we have ranked the business predictability from 5-star to 1-star, as shown in this table.

Predictability Rank	5-Star	4.5-Star	4-Star	3.5-Star	3-Star	2.5-Star	2-Star	1-Star (non-predictable)	Average among all
% Out of All 2403 Stocks	3.3%	2.9%	3.7%	3.3%	3.3%	3.7%	3.3%	76.3%	100%
% that are in Loss (10y)	3%	10%	8%	9%	11%	18%	16%	45%	37%
Average Gain (10y)	364.6%	330.9%	278.0%	235.1%	243.5%	227.8%	154.8%	100.0%	138.1%
Median Gain (10y)	238.5%	193.5%	171.0%	159.0%	132.5%	113.5%	87.0%	13.0%	39.0%
Maximum Gainer	2228.0%	2547.0%	2452.0%	2852.0%	2432.0%	1892.0%	1807.0%	11483.0%	11483.0%
Maximum Loser	-82.0%	-53.0%	-67.0%	-100.0%	-83.0%	-100.0%	-78.0%	-100.0%	-100.0%
Annualized Average Gain	15.4%	14.6%	13.2%	12.0%	12.2%	11.7%	9.1%	6.7%	8.4%
Annualized Median Gain	12.1%	10.6%	9.8%	9.3%	8.2%	7.3%	6.0%	1.1%	3.1%

For detailed information about each predictability rank, please go to GuruFocus Research: What worked in the market from 1998-2008? Part I: Introduction of Predictability Rank

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American Express Co (American Express Co) Business Description

Industry

GURUFOCUS.COM » STOCK LIST » Financial Services » Credit Services » American Express Co (NYSE:AXP) » Definitions » Predictability Rank

Comparable Companies

Traded in Other Exchanges

AXP:Mexico 1AXP:Italy AEC1d:UK 0R3C:UK AEC1:Germany AEC1:Germany AEC1:Germany AXPB34:Brazil AXP:Austria AXP:Argentina

Address

200 Vesey Street, New York, NY, USA, 10285

Website

https://www.americanexpress.com

American Express is a global financial institution, operating in about 130 countries, that provides consumers and businesses charge and credit card payment products. The company also operates a highly profitable merchant payment network. Since 2018, it has operated in three segments: global consumer services, global commercial services, and global merchant and network services. In addition to payment products, the company's commercial business offers expense management tools, consulting services, and business loans.

Executives

Jeffrey C Campbell	officer: EVP, Chief Financial Officer	4333 AMON CARTER BLVD, FORT WORTH TX 76155
Douglas E. Buckminster	officer: Pres, Int'l Consumer & SBS	200 VESEY STREET, M/S 01-50-01, NEW YORK NY 10285
Clayton Walter Joseph Iii	director	C/O APOLLO GLOBAL MANAGEMENT, INC., 9 WEST 57TH STREET, 43RD FLOOR, NEW YORK NY 10019
Caillec Christophe Le	officer: Chief Financial Officer	200 VESEY STREET, NEW YORK NY 10285
Monique Herena	officer: Chief Human Resources Officer	225 LIBERTY STREET, NEW YORK NY 10286
Howard Grosfield	officer: President, U.S. Consumer Serv	200 VESEY STREET, NEW YORK NY 10285
Quinn Jessica Lieberman	officer: Controller	200 VESEY STREET, NEW YORK NY 10285
Raymond Joabar	officer: CRO and Pres., GRBC	200 VESEY STREET, NEW YORK NY 10285
Denise Pickett	officer: CRO and President, GRBC Group	200 VESEY STREET, NEW YORK NY 10285
Anna Marrs	officer: Pres., Global Comm. Services	200 VESEY STREET, NEW YORK NY 10285
Deborah P Majoras	director	ONE PROCTER & GAMBLE PLAZA, CINCINNATI OH 45202
Rafael Marquez	officer: President, International Card	200 VESEY STREET, NEW YORK NY 10285
Theodore Leonsis	director	WASHINGTON CAPITALS, 627 N GLEBE RD SUITE 850, ARLINGTON VA 22203
Stephen J Squeri	officer: EVP, Chief Information Officer	200 VESEY STREET, NEW YORK NY 10285
Anre D Williams	officer: Pres. Global Merchant Services	200 VESEY STREET, NEW YORK NY 10285