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3M Co (NYSE:MMM) Predictability Rank


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Warren Buffett said many times that the companies he likes are:

1. Simple businesses that he understands
2. that have predictable and proven earnings and
3. with economic moat
4. those can be bought at a reasonable price.

It is hard to quantify "simple businesses that he (Buffett) understands", so we will focus on the other three characteristics instead. In GuruFocus Research: What worked in the market from 1998-2008? Part I: Introduction of Predictability Rank, we will show that the businesses that have predictable and proven earnings are usually also simple businesses that an average person could understand.

GuruFocus conducted a back test study of Warren Buffett's strategy of "buying good companies at fair prices" for the years from 1998-2008.


3M Co Predictability Rank Calculation

In our database there are 2403 stocks that have been traded from Jan. 2, 1998 to Aug. 31, 2008. We have the complete 10-year financial data and trading prices of these companies for this period. We rank the predictability of these companies based on the consistency of their revenue per share and EBITDA (earning before interest, tax, depreciation and amortization) per share over the past ten fiscal years, and study the correlation between the stock performances and the predictability of the business.

Our study may be subject to these biases and assumptions:

Dividend yields are not counted for investment returns
Effects of price changes due to spin-offs may not be fully adjusted
Study is subjected to survivorship bias due to de-listing, bankruptcy, LBO, M&A, etc.

The correlation between business predictability and investment returns of a company is showed below.

Correlation Between Business Predictability and Investment Returns

PredictablesNon-PredictableAll stocks
Total Number of stocks57018332403
Total Lost Money61830891
Total Lost More Than 50%18412430
Total Lost More Than 90%48690
Average Gain260.6%100.0%138.1%
Median Gain150.0%13.0%39.0%
Maximum Gain2852.0%11483.0%11483.0%
Maximum Loss-100.0%-100.0%-100.0%
Annualized Average Gain12.7%6.7%8.4%
Annualized Median Gain8.9%1.1%3.1%


















For the 570 predictable companies, we have seen strong correlation between the predictability of businesses and the stock performances over the past 10 years, regardless of the valuation of business at 1998. Accordingly, we have ranked the business predictability from 5-star to 1-star, as shown in this table.

Predictability Rank5-Star4.5-Star4-Star3.5-Star3-Star2.5-Star2-Star1-Star (non-predictable)Average among all
% Out of All 2403 Stocks 3.3% 2.9% 3.7% 3.3% 3.3% 3.7% 3.3% 76.3% 100%
% that are in Loss (10y) 3% 10% 8% 9% 11% 18% 16% 45% 37%
Average Gain (10y) 364.6% 330.9% 278.0% 235.1% 243.5% 227.8% 154.8% 100.0% 138.1%
Median Gain (10y) 238.5% 193.5% 171.0% 159.0% 132.5% 113.5% 87.0% 13.0% 39.0%
Maximum Gainer 2228.0% 2547.0% 2452.0% 2852.0% 2432.0% 1892.0% 1807.0% 11483.0% 11483.0%
Maximum Loser -82.0% -53.0% -67.0% -100.0% -83.0% -100.0% -78.0% -100.0% -100.0%
Annualized Average Gain 15.4% 14.6% 13.2% 12.0% 12.2% 11.7% 9.1% 6.7% 8.4%
Annualized Median Gain 12.1% 10.6% 9.8% 9.3% 8.2% 7.3% 6.0% 1.1% 3.1%
















For detailed information about each predictability rank, please go to GuruFocus Research: What worked in the market from 1998-2008? Part I: Introduction of Predictability Rank

Also read:

Part II: What worked in the market from 1998-2008? Part II: Role of Valuations
Part III: Intrinsic Value, Discounted Cash Flow and Margin of Safety

3M Co Predictability Rank Related Terms

Thank you for viewing the detailed overview of 3M Co's Predictability Rank provided by GuruFocus.com. Please click on the following links to see related term pages.


3M Co (NYSE:MMM) Business Description

3M Co logo
Address
3M Center, St. Paul, MN, USA, 55144
3M is a multinational conglomerate that has operated since 1902, when it was known as Minnesota Mining and Manufacturing. The company is well known for its research and development laboratory and it leverages its science and technology across multiple product categories. As of 2020, 3M is organized into four business segments: safety and industrial, transportation and electronics, healthcare, and consumer. Nearly 50% of the company's revenue comes from outside the Americas, with the safety and industrial segment constituting a plurality of net sales. Many of the company's 60,000-plus products touch and concern a variety of consumers and end markets.
Executives
Suzan Kereere director 255 FISERV DRIVE, BROOKFIELD WI 53045
Kevin H Rhodes officer: EVP & Chief Legal Officer 3M COMPANY, 3M CENTER, BLDG 220-09-E-02, ST. PAUL MN 55144-1000
Peter D Gibbons officer: Group President 2401 UTAH AVENUE SOUTH, SUITE 800, SEATTLE WA 98134
Chavez Rodriguez Beatriz Karina officer: Senior Vice President 3M COMPANY, 3M CENTER BLDG 220-09-E-02, ST. PAUL MN 55144-1000
Mark W. Murphy officer: Executive Vice President ONE ST. JUDE MEDICAL DRIVE, ST. PAUL MN 55117
Zoe L Dickson officer: Executive Vice President 3M COMPANY, 3M CENTER, BLDG 220 09 E-02, ST. PAUL MN 55144-1000
James R Fitterling director 2211 H.H. DOW WAY, MIDLAND MI 48674
Jeffrey R Lavers officer: Executive Vice President 3M COMPANY, 3M CENTER, BLDG 220 09 E-02, ST. PAUL MN 55144-1000
Veena M Lakkundi officer: Senior Vice President 3M COMPANY, 3M CENTER, BLDG 220 09 E-02, ST. PAUL MN 55144-1000
Monish D Patolawala officer: Senior VP and CFO 3M COMPANY, 3M CENTER, BLDG 220 09 E-02, ST. PAUL MN 55144-1000
Vinita Lee Piper other: IVM001 712 WILCREST, SUITE 3020, HOUSTON TX 77042
Pamela Craig director C/O ACCENTURE, 161 N CLARK STREET, CHICAGO IL 60601
Ty R Silberhorn officer: Senior Vice President 3M COMPANY OFFICE OF GENERAL COUNSEL, 3M CENTER, ST PAUL MN 55144-1000
Theresa E Reinseth officer: Vice President/CAO 3M COMPANY OFFICE OF GENERAL COUNSEL, 3M CENTER, ST PAUL MN 55144-1000
Denise R Rutherford officer: Senior Vice President 3M COMPANY OFFICE OF GENERAL COUNSEL, 3M CENTER, ST PAUL MN 55144-1000

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