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NewtekOne (NAS:NEWT) Predictability Rank

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Warren Buffett said many times that the companies he likes are:

1. Simple businesses that he understands
2. that have predictable and proven earnings and
3. with economic moat
4. those can be bought at a reasonable price.

It is hard to quantify "simple businesses that he (Buffett) understands", so we will focus on the other three characteristics instead. In GuruFocus Research: What worked in the market from 1998-2008? Part I: Introduction of Predictability Rank, we will show that the businesses that have predictable and proven earnings are usually also simple businesses that an average person could understand.

GuruFocus conducted a back test study of Warren Buffett's strategy of "buying good companies at fair prices" for the years from 1998-2008.

NewtekOne Predictability Rank Calculation

In our database there are 2403 stocks that have been traded from Jan. 2, 1998 to Aug. 31, 2008. We have the complete 10-year financial data and trading prices of these companies for this period. We rank the predictability of these companies based on the consistency of their revenue per share and EBITDA (earning before interest, tax, depreciation and amortization) per share over the past ten fiscal years, and study the correlation between the stock performances and the predictability of the business.

Our study may be subject to these biases and assumptions:

Dividend yields are not counted for investment returns
Effects of price changes due to spin-offs may not be fully adjusted
Study is subjected to survivorship bias due to de-listing, bankruptcy, LBO, M&A, etc.

The correlation between business predictability and investment returns of a company is showed below.

Correlation Between Business Predictability and Investment Returns

PredictablesNon-PredictableAll stocks
Total Number of stocks57018332403
Total Lost Money61830891
Total Lost More Than 50%18412430
Total Lost More Than 90%48690
Average Gain260.6%100.0%138.1%
Median Gain150.0%13.0%39.0%
Maximum Gain2852.0%11483.0%11483.0%
Maximum Loss-100.0%-100.0%-100.0%
Annualized Average Gain12.7%6.7%8.4%
Annualized Median Gain8.9%1.1%3.1%

For the 570 predictable companies, we have seen strong correlation between the predictability of businesses and the stock performances over the past 10 years, regardless of the valuation of business at 1998. Accordingly, we have ranked the business predictability from 5-star to 1-star, as shown in this table.

Predictability Rank5-Star4.5-Star4-Star3.5-Star3-Star2.5-Star2-Star1-Star (non-predictable)Average among all
% Out of All 2403 Stocks 3.3% 2.9% 3.7% 3.3% 3.3% 3.7% 3.3% 76.3% 100%
% that are in Loss (10y) 3% 10% 8% 9% 11% 18% 16% 45% 37%
Average Gain (10y) 364.6% 330.9% 278.0% 235.1% 243.5% 227.8% 154.8% 100.0% 138.1%
Median Gain (10y) 238.5% 193.5% 171.0% 159.0% 132.5% 113.5% 87.0% 13.0% 39.0%
Maximum Gainer 2228.0% 2547.0% 2452.0% 2852.0% 2432.0% 1892.0% 1807.0% 11483.0% 11483.0%
Maximum Loser -82.0% -53.0% -67.0% -100.0% -83.0% -100.0% -78.0% -100.0% -100.0%
Annualized Average Gain 15.4% 14.6% 13.2% 12.0% 12.2% 11.7% 9.1% 6.7% 8.4%
Annualized Median Gain 12.1% 10.6% 9.8% 9.3% 8.2% 7.3% 6.0% 1.1% 3.1%

For detailed information about each predictability rank, please go to GuruFocus Research: What worked in the market from 1998-2008? Part I: Introduction of Predictability Rank

Also read:

Part II: What worked in the market from 1998-2008? Part II: Role of Valuations
Part III: Intrinsic Value, Discounted Cash Flow and Margin of Safety

NewtekOne Predictability Rank Related Terms

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NewtekOne (NAS:NEWT) Business Description

NewtekOne logo
Traded in Other Exchanges
4800 T Rex Avenue, Suite 120, Boca Raton, FL, USA, 33431
NewtekOne Inc, formerly Newtek Business Services Corp is a non-diversified closed-end management investment company. The firm's investment objective is to generate current income and capital appreciation. The company provides business solutions that are designed to help organizations to grow sales, reduce costs, and minimize risk. Its solutions include web design, domains, hosting, website security, and others.
Fernando Perez-hickman director 200 WEST CONGRESS STREET, LAFAYETTE LA 70501
Halli Razon-feingold director 4800 T-REX AVENUE, SUITE 120, BOCA RATON FL 33019
Nicolas Young officer: Chief Risk Officer 200 WEST CONGRESS STREET, LAFAYETTE LA 70501
Nicholas J Leger officer: Chief Accounting Officer 348 ALFRED STREET, NORTH BABYLON NY 11703
Christopher Towers officer: Chief Accounting Officer 1981 MARCUS AVENUE, SUITE 130, LAKE SUCCESS NY 11042
Gregory L Zink director 1981 MARCUS AVENUE, SUITE 130, LAKE SUCCESS NY 11042
Nilesh Joshi officer: Chief Information Officer 5617 W. MOLLY LANE, PHOENIX AZ 85083
Dean Choksi officer: Treasurer 212 WEST 35TH STREET, FLOOR 2, NEW YORK NY 10001
John Raven officer: Chief Info. Security Officer
Richard J Salute director P O BOX 306, WOODBURY NY 11797
Michael Adam Schwartz officer: Chief Legal Officer, Secretary C/O NEWTEK BUSINESS SERVICES INC, 462 SEVENTH AVENUE, 14TH FLOOR, NEW YORK NY 10018
Barry Sloane director, officer: CEO and President
Peter Mathison Downs director 1440 PINEACRES BLVD, BAY SHORE NY 11706
Salvatore Francis Mulia director 4 WHITNEY STREET EXTENSION, WESTPORT CT 06880
Jennifer Catherine Eddelson officer: Principal Financial Officer 60 HEMPSTEAD AVENUE, 6TH FLOOR, WEST HEMPSTEAD NY 11552

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