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Ameriprise Financial Predictability Rank


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3.5 (5)

Warren Buffett said many times that the companies he likes are:

1. Simple businesses that he understands
2. that have predictable and proven earnings and
3. with economic moat
4. those can be bought at a reasonable price.

It is hard to quantify "simple businesses that he (Buffett) understands", so we will focus on the other three characteristics instead. In GuruFocus Research: What worked in the market from 1998-2008? Part I: Introduction of Predictability Rank, we will show that the businesses that have predictable and proven earnings are usually also simple businesses that an average person could understand.

GuruFocus conducted a back test study of Warren Buffett's strategy of "buying good companies at fair prices" for the years from 1998-2008.


Competitive Comparison

For the Asset Management subindustry, Ameriprise Financial's Predictability Rank, along with its competitors' market caps and Predictability Rank data, can be viewed below:

* Competitive companies are chosen from companies within the same industry, with headquarter located in same country, with closest market capitalization; x-axis shows the market cap, and y-axis shows the term value; the bigger the dot, the larger the market cap. Note that "N/A" values will not show up in the chart.

   

Ameriprise Financial Predictability Rank Distribution

For the Asset Management industry and Financial Services sector, Ameriprise Financial's Predictability Rank distribution charts can be found below:

* The bar in red indicates where Ameriprise Financial's Predictability Rank falls into.



Ameriprise Financial Predictability Rank Calculation

In our database there are 2403 stocks that have been traded from Jan. 2, 1998 to Aug. 31, 2008. We have the complete 10-year financial data and trading prices of these companies for this period. We rank the predictability of these companies based on the consistency of their revenue per share and EBITDA (earning before interest, tax, depreciation and amortization) per share over the past ten fiscal years, and study the correlation between the stock performances and the predictability of the business.

Our study may be subject to these biases and assumptions:

Dividend yields are not counted for investment returns
Effects of price changes due to spin-offs may not be fully adjusted
Study is subjected to survivorship bias due to de-listing, bankruptcy, LBO, M&A, etc.

The correlation between business predictability and investment returns of a company is showed below.

Correlation Between Business Predictability and Investment Returns

PredictablesNon-PredictableAll stocks
Total Number of stocks57018332403
Total Lost Money61830891
Total Lost More Than 50%18412430
Total Lost More Than 90%48690
Average Gain260.6%100.0%138.1%
Median Gain150.0%13.0%39.0%
Maximum Gain2852.0%11483.0%11483.0%
Maximum Loss-100.0%-100.0%-100.0%
Annualized Average Gain12.7%6.7%8.4%
Annualized Median Gain8.9%1.1%3.1%


















For the 570 predictable companies, we have seen strong correlation between the predictability of businesses and the stock performances over the past 10 years, regardless of the valuation of business at 1998. Accordingly, we have ranked the business predictability from 5-star to 1-star, as shown in this table.

Predictability Rank5-Star4.5-Star4-Star3.5-Star3-Star2.5-Star2-Star1-Star (non-predictable)Average among all
% Out of All 2403 Stocks 3.3% 2.9% 3.7% 3.3% 3.3% 3.7% 3.3% 76.3% 100%
% that are in Loss (10y) 3% 10% 8% 9% 11% 18% 16% 45% 37%
Average Gain (10y) 364.6% 330.9% 278.0% 235.1% 243.5% 227.8% 154.8% 100.0% 138.1%
Median Gain (10y) 238.5% 193.5% 171.0% 159.0% 132.5% 113.5% 87.0% 13.0% 39.0%
Maximum Gainer 2228.0% 2547.0% 2452.0% 2852.0% 2432.0% 1892.0% 1807.0% 11483.0% 11483.0%
Maximum Loser -82.0% -53.0% -67.0% -100.0% -83.0% -100.0% -78.0% -100.0% -100.0%
Annualized Average Gain 15.4% 14.6% 13.2% 12.0% 12.2% 11.7% 9.1% 6.7% 8.4%
Annualized Median Gain 12.1% 10.6% 9.8% 9.3% 8.2% 7.3% 6.0% 1.1% 3.1%
















For detailed information about each predictability rank, please go to GuruFocus Research: What worked in the market from 1998-2008? Part I: Introduction of Predictability Rank

Also read:

Part II: What worked in the market from 1998-2008? Part II: Role of Valuations
Part III: Intrinsic Value, Discounted Cash Flow and Margin of Safety

Ameriprise Financial Predictability Rank Related Terms

Thank you for viewing the detailed overview of Ameriprise Financial's Predictability Rank provided by GuruFocus.com. Please click on the following links to see related term pages.


Ameriprise Financial Business Description

Ameriprise Financial logo
Industry
Financial Services » Asset Management NAICS : 523930 SIC : 6282
Traded in Other Exchanges
Address
1099 Ameriprise Financial Center, Minneapolis, MN, USA, 55474
Spun off from American Express in 2005, Ameriprise Financial has emerged as a major player in the U.S. market for asset and wealth management, with around $1.1 trillion in total assets under management and advisement at the end of 2020. Ameriprise has one of the largest branded advisor networks in the industry, and over 70% of the company's revenue comes from its asset and wealth management segments. Ameriprise has reduced its exposure to insurance with the sale of its auto and home insurance business in 2019 and discontinuing the sale of its proprietary fixed annuities in 2020. Around 90% of the company's pretax earnings are from the United States.
Executives
Smyth Gerard P. officer: EVP Technology and CIO 1099 AMERIPRISE FINANCIAL MINNEAPOLIS MN 55474
Woerner John Robert officer: Pres Ins & Chief Strat Officer AMERIPRISE FINANCIAL, INC. 707 SECOND AVENUE SOUTH MINNEAPOLIS MN 55474
Williams Christopher J director 650 FIFTH AVE 10TH FL NEW YORK NY 10019
Truscott William F officer: CEO, Global Asset Management AMERIPRISE FINANCIAL, INC. 50591 AMERIPRISE FINANCIAL CENTER MINNEAPOLIS MN 55474
Sweeney Joseph Edward officer: Pres-AWM Products & Services AMERIPRISE FINANCIAL, INC. 707 SECOND AVENUE SOUTH MINNEAPOLIS MN 55474
Moore Colin officer: EVP & Global CIO C/O PUTNAM LLC ONE POST OFFICE SQ BOSTON MA 02109
Sharpe Robert Francis Jr director AMERIPRISE FINANCIAL, INC. 50591 AMERIPRISE FINANCIAL CENTER MINNEAPOLIS MN 55474
Greenberg Lon R director 460 NORTH GULPH ROAD KING OF PRUSSIA PA 19406
Noddle Jeffrey director 11840 VALLEY VIEW ROAD EDEN PRAIRIE MN 55344
Walter W Edward director PUBLIC "-//W3C//DTD HTML 4.0 Transitional//EN"> Ownership Information: WALTER W EDWARD a.header:link {color: #3b4fae; font-weight: bold; text-decoration: underline;} a.header:visited {color: #3b4fae; font-weight: bold; text-decoration: underline;} a.header:hover {color: #191970;}
Neal Blixt Dianne director 714 GREEN VALLEY ROAD GREENSBORO NC 27408
Digeso Amy director C/O THE ESTEE LAUDER COMPANIES INC. 767 FIFTH AVENUE NEW YORK NY 10153
Shea Brian T director ONE PERSHING PLAZA 95 CHRISTOPHER COLUMBUS DRIVE JERSEY CITY NJ 07399
Hutt John R. officer: Sr Vice Pres and Controller 1099 AMERIPRISE FINANCIAL CENTER MINNEAPOLIS MN 55474
Thissen Karen Wilson officer: Executive VP and GC 1098 AMERIPRISE FINANCIAL CENTER MINNEAPOLIS MN 55474

Ameriprise Financial Headlines

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