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Capri Holdings Predictability Rank


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Warren Buffett said many times that the companies he likes are:

1. Simple businesses that he understands
2. that have predictable and proven earnings and
3. with economic moat
4. those can be bought at a reasonable price.

It is hard to quantify "simple businesses that he (Buffett) understands", so we will focus on the other three characteristics instead. In GuruFocus Research: What worked in the market from 1998-2008? Part I: Introduction of Predictability Rank, we will show that the businesses that have predictable and proven earnings are usually also simple businesses that an average person could understand.

GuruFocus conducted a back test study of Warren Buffett's strategy of "buying good companies at fair prices" for the years from 1998-2008.


Competitive Comparison

For the Apparel Manufacturing subindustry, Capri Holdings's Predictability Rank, along with its competitors' market caps and Predictability Rank data, can be viewed below:

* Competitive companies are chosen from companies within the same industry, with headquarter located in same country, with closest market capitalization; x-axis shows the market cap, and y-axis shows the term value; the bigger the dot, the larger the market cap. Note that "N/A" values will not show up in the chart.

   

Capri Holdings Predictability Rank Distribution

For the Manufacturing - Apparel & Accessories industry and Consumer Cyclical sector, Capri Holdings's Predictability Rank distribution charts can be found below:

* The bar in red indicates where Capri Holdings's Predictability Rank falls into.



Capri Holdings Predictability Rank Calculation

In our database there are 2403 stocks that have been traded from Jan. 2, 1998 to Aug. 31, 2008. We have the complete 10-year financial data and trading prices of these companies for this period. We rank the predictability of these companies based on the consistency of their revenue per share and EBITDA (earning before interest, tax, depreciation and amortization) per share over the past ten fiscal years, and study the correlation between the stock performances and the predictability of the business.

Our study may be subject to these biases and assumptions:

Dividend yields are not counted for investment returns
Effects of price changes due to spin-offs may not be fully adjusted
Study is subjected to survivorship bias due to de-listing, bankruptcy, LBO, M&A, etc.

The correlation between business predictability and investment returns of a company is showed below.

Correlation Between Business Predictability and Investment Returns

PredictablesNon-PredictableAll stocks
Total Number of stocks57018332403
Total Lost Money61830891
Total Lost More Than 50%18412430
Total Lost More Than 90%48690
Average Gain260.6%100.0%138.1%
Median Gain150.0%13.0%39.0%
Maximum Gain2852.0%11483.0%11483.0%
Maximum Loss-100.0%-100.0%-100.0%
Annualized Average Gain12.7%6.7%8.4%
Annualized Median Gain8.9%1.1%3.1%


















For the 570 predictable companies, we have seen strong correlation between the predictability of businesses and the stock performances over the past 10 years, regardless of the valuation of business at 1998. Accordingly, we have ranked the business predictability from 5-star to 1-star, as shown in this table.

Predictability Rank5-Star4.5-Star4-Star3.5-Star3-Star2.5-Star2-Star1-Star (non-predictable)Average among all
% Out of All 2403 Stocks 3.3% 2.9% 3.7% 3.3% 3.3% 3.7% 3.3% 76.3% 100%
% that are in Loss (10y) 3% 10% 8% 9% 11% 18% 16% 45% 37%
Average Gain (10y) 364.6% 330.9% 278.0% 235.1% 243.5% 227.8% 154.8% 100.0% 138.1%
Median Gain (10y) 238.5% 193.5% 171.0% 159.0% 132.5% 113.5% 87.0% 13.0% 39.0%
Maximum Gainer 2228.0% 2547.0% 2452.0% 2852.0% 2432.0% 1892.0% 1807.0% 11483.0% 11483.0%
Maximum Loser -82.0% -53.0% -67.0% -100.0% -83.0% -100.0% -78.0% -100.0% -100.0%
Annualized Average Gain 15.4% 14.6% 13.2% 12.0% 12.2% 11.7% 9.1% 6.7% 8.4%
Annualized Median Gain 12.1% 10.6% 9.8% 9.3% 8.2% 7.3% 6.0% 1.1% 3.1%
















For detailed information about each predictability rank, please go to GuruFocus Research: What worked in the market from 1998-2008? Part I: Introduction of Predictability Rank

Also read:

Part II: What worked in the market from 1998-2008? Part II: Role of Valuations
Part III: Intrinsic Value, Discounted Cash Flow and Margin of Safety

Capri Holdings Predictability Rank Related Terms

Thank you for viewing the detailed overview of Capri Holdings's Predictability Rank provided by GuruFocus.com. Please click on the following links to see related term pages.


Capri Holdings Business Description

Capri Holdings logo
Traded in Other Exchanges
Address
33 Kingsway, London, GBR, WC2B 6UF
Michael Kors, Versace, and Jimmy Choo are the brands that comprise Capri Holdings. Capri markets, distributes, and retails upscale accessories and apparel. Michael Kors, Capri's largest and original brand, offers handbags, footwear, and apparel through more than 800 company-owned stores, third-party retailers, and e-commerce. Milan-based Versace (acquired in 2018) is known for its ready-to-wear luxury fashion. Jimmy Choo (acquired in 2017) is best known for women's luxury footwear. John Idol has served as CEO since he was part of a group that acquired Michael Kors in 2003.
Executives
Purefoy Daniel officer: SVP, Global Ops 33 KINGSWAY LONDON X0 WC2B 6UF
Korologos Ann Mclaughlin director PO BOX 3599 BATTLECREEK MI 49016-3599
Benedetto M William director 11 WEST 42ND STREET 21ST FLOOR NEW YORK NY 10036
Reitman Stephen F director 11 WEST 42ND STREET 21ST FLOOR NEW YORK NY 10036
Gibbons Judy director C/O MICHAEL KORS (USA), INC. 11 WEST 42ND STREET NEW YORK NY 10036
Tomlin Jean director C/O MICHAEL KORS (USA), INC. 11 WEST 42ND STREET NEW YORK NY 10036
Thompson Jane A. director C/O MICHAEL KORS (USA), INC. 11 WEST 42ND STREET NEW YORK NY 10036
Freestone Robin Anthony David director 33 KINGSWAY LONDON X0 WC2B 6UF
Edwards Thomas Jr. officer: EVP, CFO & COO 6820 LBJ FREEWAY DALLAS TX 75240
Idol John D director, officer: Chairman & CEO 650 MADISON AVE NEW YORK NY 10022
Mcdonough Krista A officer: SVP, GC & Chf Sustain Off 33 KINGSWAY LONDON X0 WC2B 6UF
Robinson Cathy Marie officer: SVP, Chf Ops & Trans Off C/O MICHAEL KORS (USA), INC. 11 WEST 42ND STREET NEW YORK NY 10036
Meyran Pascale officer: SVP, Chief HR Officer 11 WEST 42ND STREET NEW YORK NY 10036
Kors Michael David director, officer: Hon Chair & Chief Creative Off C/O MICHAEL KORS (USA), INC. 11 WEST 42ND STREET, ATTN. LEE SPORN NEW YORK NY 10036
Parsons Joseph B. officer: EVP, CFO, COO & Treasurer C/O MICHAEL KORS (USA), INC. 11 WEST 42ND STREET NEW YORK NY 10036

Capri Holdings Headlines

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