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Equifax Predictability Rank


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Warren Buffett said many times that the companies he likes are:

1. Simple businesses that he understands
2. that have predictable and proven earnings and
3. with economic moat
4. those can be bought at a reasonable price.

It is hard to quantify "simple businesses that he (Buffett) understands", so we will focus on the other three characteristics instead. In GuruFocus Research: What worked in the market from 1998-2008? Part I: Introduction of Predictability Rank, we will show that the businesses that have predictable and proven earnings are usually also simple businesses that an average person could understand.

GuruFocus conducted a back test study of Warren Buffett's strategy of "buying good companies at fair prices" for the years from 1998-2008.


Competitive Comparison

For the Consulting Services subindustry, Equifax's Predictability Rank, along with its competitors' market caps and Predictability Rank data, can be viewed below:

* Competitive companies are chosen from companies within the same industry, with headquarter located in same country, with closest market capitalization; x-axis shows the market cap, and y-axis shows the term value; the bigger the dot, the larger the market cap. Note that "N/A" values will not show up in the chart.

   

Equifax Predictability Rank Distribution

For the Business Services industry and Industrials sector, Equifax's Predictability Rank distribution charts can be found below:

* The bar in red indicates where Equifax's Predictability Rank falls into.



Equifax Predictability Rank Calculation

In our database there are 2403 stocks that have been traded from Jan. 2, 1998 to Aug. 31, 2008. We have the complete 10-year financial data and trading prices of these companies for this period. We rank the predictability of these companies based on the consistency of their revenue per share and EBITDA (earning before interest, tax, depreciation and amortization) per share over the past ten fiscal years, and study the correlation between the stock performances and the predictability of the business.

Our study may be subject to these biases and assumptions:

Dividend yields are not counted for investment returns
Effects of price changes due to spin-offs may not be fully adjusted
Study is subjected to survivorship bias due to de-listing, bankruptcy, LBO, M&A, etc.

The correlation between business predictability and investment returns of a company is showed below.

Correlation Between Business Predictability and Investment Returns

PredictablesNon-PredictableAll stocks
Total Number of stocks57018332403
Total Lost Money61830891
Total Lost More Than 50%18412430
Total Lost More Than 90%48690
Average Gain260.6%100.0%138.1%
Median Gain150.0%13.0%39.0%
Maximum Gain2852.0%11483.0%11483.0%
Maximum Loss-100.0%-100.0%-100.0%
Annualized Average Gain12.7%6.7%8.4%
Annualized Median Gain8.9%1.1%3.1%


















For the 570 predictable companies, we have seen strong correlation between the predictability of businesses and the stock performances over the past 10 years, regardless of the valuation of business at 1998. Accordingly, we have ranked the business predictability from 5-star to 1-star, as shown in this table.

Predictability Rank5-Star4.5-Star4-Star3.5-Star3-Star2.5-Star2-Star1-Star (non-predictable)Average among all
% Out of All 2403 Stocks 3.3% 2.9% 3.7% 3.3% 3.3% 3.7% 3.3% 76.3% 100%
% that are in Loss (10y) 3% 10% 8% 9% 11% 18% 16% 45% 37%
Average Gain (10y) 364.6% 330.9% 278.0% 235.1% 243.5% 227.8% 154.8% 100.0% 138.1%
Median Gain (10y) 238.5% 193.5% 171.0% 159.0% 132.5% 113.5% 87.0% 13.0% 39.0%
Maximum Gainer 2228.0% 2547.0% 2452.0% 2852.0% 2432.0% 1892.0% 1807.0% 11483.0% 11483.0%
Maximum Loser -82.0% -53.0% -67.0% -100.0% -83.0% -100.0% -78.0% -100.0% -100.0%
Annualized Average Gain 15.4% 14.6% 13.2% 12.0% 12.2% 11.7% 9.1% 6.7% 8.4%
Annualized Median Gain 12.1% 10.6% 9.8% 9.3% 8.2% 7.3% 6.0% 1.1% 3.1%
















For detailed information about each predictability rank, please go to GuruFocus Research: What worked in the market from 1998-2008? Part I: Introduction of Predictability Rank

Also read:

Part II: What worked in the market from 1998-2008? Part II: Role of Valuations
Part III: Intrinsic Value, Discounted Cash Flow and Margin of Safety

Equifax Predictability Rank Related Terms

Thank you for viewing the detailed overview of Equifax's Predictability Rank provided by GuruFocus.com. Please click on the following links to see related term pages.


Equifax Business Description

Equifax logo
Industry
Industrials » Business Services NAICS : 561450 SIC : 7323
Traded in Other Exchanges
Address
1550 Peachtree Street N.W., Atlanta, GA, USA, 30309
Along with Experian and TransUnion, Equifax is one of the leading credit bureaus in the United States. Equifax's credit reports provide credit histories on millions of consumers, and the firm's services are critical to lenders' credit decisions. In addition, about a third of the firm's revenue comes from workforce solutions, which provides income verification and employer human resources services. Equifax generates over 20% of its revenue from outside the United States.
Executives
Bindal Sunil officer: SVP, Corp Development EQUIFAX INC. 1550 PEACHTREE STREET NW ATLANTA GA 30309
Marshall Siri S director NUMBER ONE GENERAL MILLS BLVD MINNEAPOLIS MN 55426
Stock Elane B director 351 PHELPS DRIVE IRVING TX 75038
Houston Julia A officer: Chief Transformation Officer 1155 PERIMETER CENTER WEST ATLANTA GA 30338
Dhore Prasanna officer: Chief Data & Analytics Officer 10375 PROFESSIONAL CIRCLE RENO NV 89521
Griggs James M officer: SVP & Corp Controller 1550 PEACHTREE STREET NW ATLANTA GA 30309
Gamble John W Jr officer: Chief Financial Officer ONE LEXMARK CENTRE DR 740 WEST NEW CIRCLE RD LEXINGTON KY 40550
Koehler Bryson R officer: Chief Technology Officer 1550 PEACHTREE STREET NW ATLANTA GA 30309
Kelley John J Iii officer: Chief Legal Officer 1550 PEACHTREE STREET, NW ATLANTA GA 30309
Mcgregor Scott A director 5300 CALIFORNIA AVENUE IRVINE CA 92617
Wilson Heather H director 1550 PEACHTREE STREET NW ATLANTA 2Q 30309
Hough G. Thomas director P.O. BOX 407 LAKELAND FL 33802
Mckinley John A director C/O EQUIFAX INC 1550 PEACHTREE STREET NW ATLANTA GA 30309
Marcus Robert D director C/O TIME WARNER CABLE INC. 60 COLUMBUS CIRCLE, 17TH FLOOR NEW YORK NY 10023
Selander Robert W director MASTERCARD INTERNATIONAL 2000 PURCHASE STREET PURCHASE NY 10577

Equifax Headlines

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