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Molson Coors Beverage Co Predictability Rank


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Warren Buffett said many times that the companies he likes are:

1. Simple businesses that he understands
2. that have predictable and proven earnings and
3. with economic moat
4. those can be bought at a reasonable price.

It is hard to quantify "simple businesses that he (Buffett) understands", so we will focus on the other three characteristics instead. In GuruFocus Research: What worked in the market from 1998-2008? Part I: Introduction of Predictability Rank, we will show that the businesses that have predictable and proven earnings are usually also simple businesses that an average person could understand.

GuruFocus conducted a back test study of Warren Buffett's strategy of "buying good companies at fair prices" for the years from 1998-2008.


Competitive Comparison

For the Beverages - Brewers subindustry, Molson Coors Beverage Co's Predictability Rank, along with its competitors' market caps and Predictability Rank data, can be viewed below:

* Competitive companies are chosen from companies within the same industry, with headquarter located in same country, with closest market capitalization; x-axis shows the market cap, and y-axis shows the term value; the bigger the dot, the larger the market cap. Note that "N/A" values will not show up in the chart.

   

Molson Coors Beverage Co Predictability Rank Distribution

For the Beverages - Alcoholic industry and Consumer Defensive sector, Molson Coors Beverage Co's Predictability Rank distribution charts can be found below:

* The bar in red indicates where Molson Coors Beverage Co's Predictability Rank falls into.



Molson Coors Beverage Co Predictability Rank Calculation

In our database there are 2403 stocks that have been traded from Jan. 2, 1998 to Aug. 31, 2008. We have the complete 10-year financial data and trading prices of these companies for this period. We rank the predictability of these companies based on the consistency of their revenue per share and EBITDA (earning before interest, tax, depreciation and amortization) per share over the past ten fiscal years, and study the correlation between the stock performances and the predictability of the business.

Our study may be subject to these biases and assumptions:

Dividend yields are not counted for investment returns
Effects of price changes due to spin-offs may not be fully adjusted
Study is subjected to survivorship bias due to de-listing, bankruptcy, LBO, M&A, etc.

The correlation between business predictability and investment returns of a company is showed below.

Correlation Between Business Predictability and Investment Returns

PredictablesNon-PredictableAll stocks
Total Number of stocks57018332403
Total Lost Money61830891
Total Lost More Than 50%18412430
Total Lost More Than 90%48690
Average Gain260.6%100.0%138.1%
Median Gain150.0%13.0%39.0%
Maximum Gain2852.0%11483.0%11483.0%
Maximum Loss-100.0%-100.0%-100.0%
Annualized Average Gain12.7%6.7%8.4%
Annualized Median Gain8.9%1.1%3.1%


















For the 570 predictable companies, we have seen strong correlation between the predictability of businesses and the stock performances over the past 10 years, regardless of the valuation of business at 1998. Accordingly, we have ranked the business predictability from 5-star to 1-star, as shown in this table.

Predictability Rank5-Star4.5-Star4-Star3.5-Star3-Star2.5-Star2-Star1-Star (non-predictable)Average among all
% Out of All 2403 Stocks 3.3% 2.9% 3.7% 3.3% 3.3% 3.7% 3.3% 76.3% 100%
% that are in Loss (10y) 3% 10% 8% 9% 11% 18% 16% 45% 37%
Average Gain (10y) 364.6% 330.9% 278.0% 235.1% 243.5% 227.8% 154.8% 100.0% 138.1%
Median Gain (10y) 238.5% 193.5% 171.0% 159.0% 132.5% 113.5% 87.0% 13.0% 39.0%
Maximum Gainer 2228.0% 2547.0% 2452.0% 2852.0% 2432.0% 1892.0% 1807.0% 11483.0% 11483.0%
Maximum Loser -82.0% -53.0% -67.0% -100.0% -83.0% -100.0% -78.0% -100.0% -100.0%
Annualized Average Gain 15.4% 14.6% 13.2% 12.0% 12.2% 11.7% 9.1% 6.7% 8.4%
Annualized Median Gain 12.1% 10.6% 9.8% 9.3% 8.2% 7.3% 6.0% 1.1% 3.1%
















For detailed information about each predictability rank, please go to GuruFocus Research: What worked in the market from 1998-2008? Part I: Introduction of Predictability Rank

Also read:

Part II: What worked in the market from 1998-2008? Part II: Role of Valuations
Part III: Intrinsic Value, Discounted Cash Flow and Margin of Safety

Molson Coors Beverage Co Predictability Rank Related Terms

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Molson Coors Beverage Co Business Description

Molson Coors Beverage Co logo
Industry
Address
NH353, P.O. Box 4030, Golden, CO, USA, 80401
Molson Coors is the fifth- largest beer producer globally, boasting top-two positioning in the U.S., Canada, and many Central European markets. It brews and markets a slew of company-owned brands including Blue Moon, Coors, Miller, Vizzy, and Staropramen. It also sells various partner brands in certain locales such as Topo Chico (licensed from Coca-Cola), Amstel and Dos Equis in Canada (through an exclusive import/license arrangement with Heineken) and Corona in Central Europe (through an agreement with Anheuser-Busch InBev). The firm's go-to-market approach differs by geography as well, primarily using independent distributors in the U.S., but deploying hybrid models in Canada and Europe.
Executives
Herington Charles M director 1801 CALIFORNIA STREET, SUITE 4600 DENVER CO 80202
Eaton Roger G. director 1441 GARDINER LANE LOUISVILLE KY 40213
Napier Iain J G director 1801 CALIFORNIA STREET, SUITE 4600 DENVER CO 80202
Tough Douglas D. director 1801 CALIFORNIA STREET, SUITE 4600 DENVER CO 80202
Vachon Louis director 1155 METCALFE STREET MONTREAL QUEBEC CANADA E6 0000
Coors Peter H director, 10 percent owner, other: Vice Chairman of the Board 1801 CALIFORNIA STREET, SUITE 4600 DENVER CO 80202
Coors David S. director P.O. BOX 4030 NH353 GOLDEN CO 80401
Winnefeld James A Jr director 870 WINTER STREET WALTHAM MA 02451
Fergusonmchugh Marylynn director ONE PROCTER & GAMBLE PLAZA CINCINNATI OH 45202
Molson Andrew Thomas director, other: Chairman of the Board 1801 CALIFORNIA STREET, SUITE 4600 DENVER CO 80202
Riley H Sanford director 1801 CALIFORNIA STREET, SUITE 4600 DENVER CO 80202
Molson Geoffrey E. director 1801 CALIFORNIA STREET, SUITE 4600 DENVER CO 80202
Hobbs Franklin W Iv director 1801 CALIFORNIA STREET, SUITE 4600 DENVER CO 80202
Cox Simon officer: Pres&CEO, Molson Coors Europe 1801 CALIFORNIA STREET, SUITE 4600 DENVER CO 80202
Tabolt Brian officer: VP,Controller & Chf Acct Off 1801 CALIFORNIA STREET, SUITE 4600 DENVER CO 80202

Molson Coors Beverage Co Headlines

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