Molson Coors Beverage Co (Molson Coors Beverage Co) Predictability Rank

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Warren Buffett said many times that the companies he likes are:

1. Simple businesses that he understands
2. that have predictable and proven earnings and
3. with economic moat
4. those can be bought at a reasonable price.

It is hard to quantify "simple businesses that he (Buffett) understands", so we will focus on the other three characteristics instead. In GuruFocus Research: What worked in the market from 1998-2008? Part I: Introduction of Predictability Rank, we will show that the businesses that have predictable and proven earnings are usually also simple businesses that an average person could understand.

GuruFocus conducted a back test study of Warren Buffett's strategy of "buying good companies at fair prices" for the years from 1998-2008.

Molson Coors Beverage Co Predictability Rank Calculation

In our database there are 2403 stocks that have been traded from Jan. 2, 1998 to Aug. 31, 2008. We have the complete 10-year financial data and trading prices of these companies for this period. We rank the predictability of these companies based on the consistency of their revenue per share and EBITDA (earning before interest, tax, depreciation and amortization) per share over the past ten fiscal years, and study the correlation between the stock performances and the predictability of the business.

Our study may be subject to these biases and assumptions:

Dividend yields are not counted for investment returns
Effects of price changes due to spin-offs may not be fully adjusted
Study is subjected to survivorship bias due to de-listing, bankruptcy, LBO, M&A, etc.

The correlation between business predictability and investment returns of a company is showed below.

Correlation Between Business Predictability and Investment Returns

	Predictables	Non-Predictable	All stocks
Total Number of stocks	570	1833	2403
Total Lost Money	61	830	891
Total Lost More Than 50%	18	412	430
Total Lost More Than 90%	4	86	90
Average Gain	260.6%	100.0%	138.1%
Median Gain	150.0%	13.0%	39.0%
Maximum Gain	2852.0%	11483.0%	11483.0%
Maximum Loss	-100.0%	-100.0%	-100.0%
Annualized Average Gain	12.7%	6.7%	8.4%
Annualized Median Gain	8.9%	1.1%	3.1%

For the 570 predictable companies, we have seen strong correlation between the predictability of businesses and the stock performances over the past 10 years, regardless of the valuation of business at 1998. Accordingly, we have ranked the business predictability from 5-star to 1-star, as shown in this table.

Predictability Rank	5-Star	4.5-Star	4-Star	3.5-Star	3-Star	2.5-Star	2-Star	1-Star (non-predictable)	Average among all
% Out of All 2403 Stocks	3.3%	2.9%	3.7%	3.3%	3.3%	3.7%	3.3%	76.3%	100%
% that are in Loss (10y)	3%	10%	8%	9%	11%	18%	16%	45%	37%
Average Gain (10y)	364.6%	330.9%	278.0%	235.1%	243.5%	227.8%	154.8%	100.0%	138.1%
Median Gain (10y)	238.5%	193.5%	171.0%	159.0%	132.5%	113.5%	87.0%	13.0%	39.0%
Maximum Gainer	2228.0%	2547.0%	2452.0%	2852.0%	2432.0%	1892.0%	1807.0%	11483.0%	11483.0%
Maximum Loser	-82.0%	-53.0%	-67.0%	-100.0%	-83.0%	-100.0%	-78.0%	-100.0%	-100.0%
Annualized Average Gain	15.4%	14.6%	13.2%	12.0%	12.2%	11.7%	9.1%	6.7%	8.4%
Annualized Median Gain	12.1%	10.6%	9.8%	9.3%	8.2%	7.3%	6.0%	1.1%	3.1%

For detailed information about each predictability rank, please go to GuruFocus Research: What worked in the market from 1998-2008? Part I: Introduction of Predictability Rank

Molson Coors Beverage Co Predictability Rank Related Terms

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Molson Coors Beverage Co (Molson Coors Beverage Co) Business Description

Industry

GURUFOCUS.COM » STOCK LIST » Consumer Defensive » Beverages - Alcoholic » Molson Coors Beverage Co (NYSE:TAP) » Definitions » Predictability Rank

Traded in Other Exchanges

TAP.A:USA NY70:Germany NY7:Germany NY7:Germany

Address

NH353, P.O. Box 4030, Golden, CO, USA, 80401

Website

https://www.molsoncoors.com

Molson Coors owns well-known beer brands including Miller, Coors, Blue Moon, and Carling, and ranks as the second largest beer maker in both value and volume terms in the U.S., Canada, and the United Kingdom. Through licensing agreements, it also brews and distributes beer and hard seltzer under partner brands from Heineken, Anheuser-Busch InBev, Asahi, and Coca-Cola. The company uses independent distributors in the U.S. given the three-tier distribution requirements, while using a combination of distributors and an in-house sales team in Canada and Europe. North America remains its largest market contributing over 80% of total revenue.

Executives

Winnefeld James A Jr	director	870 WINTER STREET, WALTHAM MA 02451
Natalie G. Maciolek	officer: Chief Legal & Govt Affairs Off	3939 W HIGHLAND BLVD, MILWAUKEE WI 53208
Geoffrey E. Molson	director	1801 CALIFORNIA STREET, SUITE 4600, DENVER CO 80202
Williams Leroy James Jr	director	10 LONGS PEAK DRIVE, BROOMFIELD CO 80021-2510
Anne-marie W D'angelo	officer: Chief Legal & Govt Affairs Off	801 E. 86TH AVENUE, MERRILLVILLE IN 46410
Louis Vachon	director	1155 METCALFE STREET, MONTREAL QUEBEC CANADA E6 0000
Julia M Brown	director	C/O ABLE BRANDS CO., 30 HUDSON YARDS, NEW YORK NY 10001
Simon Cox	officer: Pres&CEO, Molson Coors Europe	1801 CALIFORNIA STREET, SUITE 4600, DENVER CO 80202
Roxanne Stelter	officer: VP,Controller & Chf Acct Off	3939 W HIGHLAND BLVD, MILWAUKEE WI 53208
Andrew Thomas Molson	director	1801 CALIFORNIA STREET, SUITE 4600, DENVER CO 80202
David S. Coors	director	P.O. BOX 4030, NH353, GOLDEN CO 80401
Nessa O'sullivan	director	P.O. BOX 4030, NH353, GOLDEN CO 80401
Peter H Coors	director, other: Chairman of the Board	1801 CALIFORNIA STREET, SUITE 4600, DENVER CO 80202
Peter John Marino	officer: President of Emerging Growth	250 SOUTH WACKER DRIVE, CHICAGO IL 60606
Jacques Michelle St.	officer: Chief Marketing Officer	250 SOUTH WACKER DRIVE, CHICAGO IL 60606