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American Financial GroupAFG +0.33%75 Intrinsic Value: DCF (Earnings Based) is $161.88 as of Aug. 11, 2026, which is 21200% above its 10-year median of 0.76. GuruFocus rates AFG with a GF Score™ of 75/100 and a GF Value™ of $136.53 (Fairly Valued). The stock has 4 warning signs investors should review. Among 55 Insurance companies, American Financial Group ranks worse than 1818180% on this metric.
Note: Discounted Earnings model is only suitable for predictable companies (Business Predictability Rank higher than 1-Star). If the company's predictability rank is 1-Star or Not Rated, result may not be accurate due to the low predictability of business and the data will not be stored into our database.
American Financial Group's Predictability Rank is 1-Star. Thus, this page is only used for demonstration purposes and the DCF related results in the screener and portfolio will appear as zero.
The historical rank and industry rank for American Financial Group's Intrinsic Value: DCF (Earnings Based) or its related term are showing as below:
During the past 13 years, the highest Price-to-Intrinsic-Value-DCF (Earnings Based) Ratio of American Financial Group was 1.02. The lowest was 0.48. And the median was 0.76.
AFG's Price-to-DCF (Earnings Based) is not ranked *
in the Insurance industry.
Industry Median: 0.8 * Ranked among companies with meaningful Price-to-DCF (Earnings Based) only.
American Financial Group (NYSE:AFG) Intrinsic Value: DCF (Earnings Based) Explanation
Unlike valuation methods such as Net Current Asset Value, Tangible Book Value per Share, Graham Number, Median Ratio etc, discounted Cash Flow model evaluates the companies based on their future earnings power instead of their assets.
Be Aware
What you need to know about Discounted Earnings model:
1. The Discounted Earnings model evaluates a company based on its future earnings power
2. Growth is taken into account; therefore a faster growth company is worth more if everything else is the same.
3. Since we are projecting future growth, it is assumed that the company will grow at the same rate as it did during the past 10 years. Therefore this model works better for the companies that are relatively consistent performers.
4. The Discounted Earnings model works poorly for inconsistent performers like cyclicals.
5. Your expected return from the investment is a reasonable discount rate assumption.
6. A larger margin of safety should be required for companies with less predictable businesses.
You can screen for stocks that trade below their Intrinsic Value: DCF (FCF Based) and Intrinsic Value: DCF (Earnings Based) with the GuruFocus All-in-One Screener. Companies with a high Predictability Rank that trade at a discount to their Intrinsic Value: DCF (FCF Based) and Intrinsic Value: DCF (Earnings Based) can be found in the screen of Undervalued Predictable Companies.
American Financial Group Intrinsic Value: DCF (Earnings Based) Related Terms
American Financial Group Intrinsic Value: DCF (Earnings Based) Historical Data
* Premium members only.
The historical data trend for American Financial Group's Intrinsic Value: DCF (Earnings Based) can be seen below:
* For Operating Data section: All numbers are indicated by the unit behind each term and all currency related amount are in USD. * For other sections: All numbers are in millions except for per share data, ratio, and percentage. All currency related amount are indicated in the company's associated stock exchange currency.
American Financial Group Intrinsic Value: DCF (Earnings Based) Chart
For the Insurance - Property & Casualty subindustry, American Financial Group's Price-to-DCF (Earnings Based), along with its competitors' market caps and Price-to-DCF (Earnings Based) data, can be viewed below:
* Competitive companies are chosen from companies within the same industry, with headquarter located in same country, with closest market capitalization; x-axis shows the market cap, and y-axis shows the term value; the bigger the dot, the larger the market cap. Note that "N/A" values will not show up in the chart.
American Financial Group Price-to-DCF (Earnings Based) vs Insurance Industry
For the Insurance industry and Financial Services sector, American Financial Group's Price-to-DCF (Earnings Based) distribution charts can be found below:
* The bar in red indicates where American Financial Group's Price-to-DCF (Earnings Based) falls into.
American Financial Group Intrinsic Value: DCF (Earnings Based) Calculation
This is the intrinsic value calculated from the Discounted Earnings model with default parameters. The calculation method is the same as Discounted Cash Flow model except earnings are used in the calculation instead of free cash flow. This is the default method of calculation with GuruFocus DCF calculator.
Usually a two-stage model is used in calculating the intrinsic value with discounted cash flow model. The first stage is called growth stage; the second is called the terminal stage. In the growth stage the company grows at a faster rate. Because it cannot grow at that rate forever, a lower rate is used for the terminal stage.
GuruFocus DCF calculator is a two-stage model. The default values are defined as:
1. Discount Rate: d = 11% A reasonable discount rate assumption should be at least the long term average return of the stock market, which can be estimated from risk free rate plus risk premium of stock market. GuruFocus uses 10-Year Treasury Constant Maturity Rate as the risk-free rate and rounded up to the nearest integer. It is updated daily. The current risk-free rate is 4.69%. Please go to Economic Indicators page for more information. Please note that we use the 10-Year Treasury Constant Maturity Rate of the country/region where the company is headquartered. If the data for that country/region is not available, then we will use the 10-Year Treasury Constant Maturity Rate of the United States as default. Then we added a risk premium of 6% to get the estimated discount rate. Some investors use their expected rate of return, which is also reasonable. A typical discount rate can be anywhere between 6% - 20%.
2. Growth Rate in the growth stage: g1 = 7.90%
The Growth Rate in the growth stage is initially set as the default 10-Year EPS without NRI Growth Rate. In cases where the 10-year growth rate is unavailable, it defaults to using the 5-Year EPS without NRI Growth Rate. If both the 10-year and 5-year growth rates are unavailable, the system defaults to the 3-Year EPS without NRI Growth Rate.
However, it's important to note that there is a growth rate range. If the calculated growth rate exceeds 20%, it will be capped at 20%. Conversely, if the calculated growth rate falls below 5%, it will be adjusted to 5% to maintain a reasonable range.
=>
American Financial Group's average EPS without NRI Growth Rate in the past
10 years was 7.90%,
which is between 5% and 20%. => GuruFocus defaults => Growth Rate: 7.90%
3. Years of Growth Stage: y1 = 10
4. Terminal Growth Rate: g2 = 4%
5. Years of Terminal Growth: y2 = 10
6. EPS without NRI: eps without nri = $11.610. GuruFocus DCF calculator is actually a Discounted Earnings calculator, EPS without NRI is used as the default. The reason we are doing this is we found that historically stock prices are more correlated with earnings than free cash flow.
All of the default settings can be changed and the results are calculated automatically.
* For Operating Data section: All numbers are indicated by the unit behind each term and all currency related amount are in USD. * For other sections: All numbers are in millions except for per share data, ratio, and percentage. All currency related amount are indicated in the company's associated stock exchange currency.
What does a Intrinsic Value: DCF (Earnings Based) of $161.88 mean?
American Financial Group (AFG) has a Intrinsic Value: DCF (Earnings Based) of $161.88 as of Aug. 11, 2026. Intrinsic Value: DCF (Earnings Based) is the stock value based on a two-stage discounted earnings model. View historical data on American Financial Group and its competitors. This is 21200% above median its historical median of 0.76. Over the past decade, American Financial Group's Intrinsic Value: DCF (Earnings Based) has ranged from 0.48 to 1.02. According to the industry distribution chart, American Financial Group ranks #999999 out of 55 companies in the Insurance industry.
Is American Financial Group's Intrinsic Value: DCF (Earnings Based) too high?
American Financial Group's current Intrinsic Value: DCF (Earnings Based) of $161.88 is 21200% above median its 10-year median of 0.76. Over the past 10 years, this metric has ranged from a low of 0.48 to a high of 1.02. The Insurance industry median Intrinsic Value: DCF (Earnings Based) is 0.80. American Financial Group's value of $161.88 is 20135% above this industry median. Based on the distribution chart, American Financial Group ranks #999999 out of 55 companies in the Insurance industry, which is in the bottom quartile relative to peers. Overall, American Financial Group has a GF Score™ of 75/100 and is considered Fairly Valued, reflecting its overall financial health beyond just this single metric.
How does American Financial Group's Intrinsic Value: DCF (Earnings Based) compare to ORI and AIZ?
According to the Insurance industry distribution chart, American Financial Group ranks #999999 out of 55 companies for Intrinsic Value: DCF (Earnings Based). This places American Financial Group in the lower half of its industry. The industry median Intrinsic Value: DCF (Earnings Based) is 0.80. American Financial Group's value of $161.88 is 20135% above this benchmark. Historically, American Financial Group's own Intrinsic Value: DCF (Earnings Based) has ranged from 0.48 to 1.02 over the past decade. While the company's 10-year median is 0.76 vs. the industry median of 0.80, American Financial Group has consistently been above the industry average. See the competitive comparison table and distribution chart on this page for a detailed peer-by-peer breakdown.
What is a good Intrinsic Value: DCF (Earnings Based) for an Insurance company?
The median Intrinsic Value: DCF (Earnings Based) among Insurance companies is 0.80, based on 55 companies in the industry. Companies in the top quartile (top 25%) have a Intrinsic Value: DCF (Earnings Based) significantly above this median, while those in the bottom quartile fall well below. However, Intrinsic Value: DCF (Earnings Based) should not be evaluated in isolation — investors should consider it alongside profitability, growth, and financial strength metrics. American Financial Group's current Intrinsic Value: DCF (Earnings Based) of $161.88 is 20135% above the industry median. Use the industry distribution chart on this page to see where any company falls relative to its peers.
What does a high Intrinsic Value: DCF (Earnings Based) mean?
A high Intrinsic Value: DCF (Earnings Based) can signal that a stock is expensive relative to its fundamentals. Intrinsic Value: DCF (Earnings Based) is the stock value based on a two-stage discounted earnings model. View historical data on American Financial Group and its competitors. For the Insurance industry, the median Intrinsic Value: DCF (Earnings Based) is 0.80 — values significantly above this may indicate overvaluation, while values below may suggest a bargain or underlying issues. American Financial Group's current Intrinsic Value: DCF (Earnings Based) is $161.88, which is 21200% above median its own 10-year median of 0.76. However, context matters — high-growth companies often justify higher valuations. Always evaluate alongside other metrics like GF Score™ and GF Value™.
Is American Financial Group stock overvalued right now?
Based on GuruFocus' analysis, American Financial Group (AFG) is currently considered Fairly Valued. The stock's GF Value™ is $136.53, compared to a current price of $144.35 — trading 5.7% above its estimated fair value. The current Intrinsic Value: DCF (Earnings Based) is $161.88, which is 21200% above median its 10-year median of 0.76 and 20135% above the Insurance industry median of 0.80. American Financial Group's overall GF Score™ is 75/100 with 4 warning signs to review. Investors should evaluate multiple metrics — including profitability, growth, and financial strength — before making a decision.
How is Intrinsic Value: DCF (Earnings Based) calculated?
Intrinsic Value: DCF (Earnings Based) is calculated from a company's financial statements. For American Financial Group (AFG), the current Intrinsic Value: DCF (Earnings Based) is $161.88 as of Aug. 11, 2026. GuruFocus calculates this using data sourced from SEC filings and annual reports. See the calculation section and 30-year financial data on this page for the full breakdown.
Is American Financial Group (AFG) Overvalued in 2026?
Based on GuruFocus' analysis, American Financial Group stock appears to be overvalued.
The current stock price of $144.35 is trading 5.7% above its estimated GF Value™ of $136.53.
GuruFocus considers American Financial Group to be Fairly Valued.
Key valuation signals for AFG:
Intrinsic Value: DCF (Earnings Based): $161.88 (21200% above median its 10-year median of 0.76)
GF Value™: $136.53 vs. price of $144.35 (5.7% above fair value)
Industry Position: 20135% above the Insurance median (#999999 of 55)
No single metric tells the full story. See the AFG stock analysis page for a complete view including 30-year financials, guru trades, and insider activity.
American Financial Group Inc is an insurance holding company. Through its subsidiaries, it is engaged in the property and casualty insurance business, focusing on specialized commercial products for businesses. The group operates through two segments: Property and Casualty Insurance, which generates maximum revenue, and Other. The Property and Casualty Insurance segment is further divided into different sub-segments, such as Property and transportation, Specialty casualty, and Specialty financial. These sub-segments offer insurance coverage for vehicles and commercial property, customized programs for small to mid-sized businesses, workers' compensation insurance, risk management insurance programs for lending and leasing institutions, trade credit insurance, and other insurance products.
75GF Score
Get the complete analysis for AFG
Intrinsic Value: DCF (Earnings Based) is just one metric. See GF Value™, 30-year financials, guru trades, warning signs, and more.
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