Focused on building reliable datasets, financial models, and research tools for value-minded investors. Committed to turning complex data into practical guidance for value-investing and long-term wealth.
Dr. Charlie Tian is the founder and CEO of GuruFocus.com, a leading global investment research platform established in 2004. With a Ph.D. in physics, Dr. Tian transitioned from science to finance, applying a data-driven, disciplined approach to value investing.
Yacktman defines forward rate of return as the normalized free cash flow yield plus real growth plus inflation. American Financial Group's forward rate of return for was 0.00%.
The historical rank and industry rank for American Financial Group's Forward Rate of Return (Yacktman) % or its related term are showing as below:
AFG'
s Forward Rate of Return (Yacktman) % Range Over the Past 10 Years
Min: 3.63 Med: 22.36 Max: 45.53
Current: 8.74
During the past 13 years, American Financial Group's highest Forward Rate of Return was 45.53. The lowest was 3.63. And the median was 22.36.
AFG's Forward Rate of Return (Yacktman) % is ranked worse than 68.82% of 279
companies
in the Insurance industry
Industry Median: 17.06
vs AFG: 8.74
Unlike the Earnings Yield %, the Forward Rate of Return uses the normalized Free Cash Flow of the past five years, and considers growth. The forward rate of return can be thought of as the return that investors buying the stock today can expect from it in the future.
American Financial Group (NYSE:AFG) Forward Rate of Return (Yacktman) % Explanation
Unlike the Earnings Yield, the Forward Rate of Return uses the normalized Free Cash Flow of the past five years, and considers growth. The forward rate of return can be thought of as the return that investors buying the stock today can expect from it in the future.
For the growth part of the Forward Rate of Return calculation, GuruFocus uses the 5-year average growth rate of EBITDA per share as the growth rate, and the growth rate is always capped at 20%. For the Free Cash Flow we use per share data averaged over five years. The reason we use five years is to make it comparable to the growth rate.
Be Aware
In the Forward Rate of Return calculation, the growth rate is added directly to today's free cash flow yield. Therefore the calculation is reliable only if the company can grow at the same rate in the future as it did in the past. Investors should pay close attention to this when researching growth stocks. A more accurate measurement for return is Return on Capital.
American Financial Group Forward Rate of Return (Yacktman) % Related Terms
American Financial Group Forward Rate of Return (Yacktman) % Historical Data
* Premium members only.
The historical data trend for American Financial Group's Forward Rate of Return (Yacktman) % can be seen below:
* For Operating Data section: All numbers are indicated by the unit behind each term and all currency related amount are in USD. * For other sections: All numbers are in millions except for per share data, ratio, and percentage. All currency related amount are indicated in the company's associated stock exchange currency.
American Financial Group Forward Rate of Return (Yacktman) % Chart
AFG vs ORI, AIZ, CNA: Forward Rate of Return (Yacktman) % Comparison
For the Insurance - Property & Casualty subindustry, American Financial Group's Forward Rate of Return (Yacktman) %, along with its competitors' market caps and Forward Rate of Return (Yacktman) % data, can be viewed below:
* Competitive companies are chosen from companies within the same industry, with headquarter located in same country, with closest market capitalization; x-axis shows the market cap, and y-axis shows the term value; the bigger the dot, the larger the market cap. Note that "N/A" values will not show up in the chart.
American Financial Group Forward Rate of Return (Yacktman) % vs Insurance Industry
For the Insurance industry and Financial Services sector, American Financial Group's Forward Rate of Return (Yacktman) % distribution charts can be found below:
* The bar in red indicates where American Financial Group's Forward Rate of Return (Yacktman) % falls into.
American Financial Group Forward Rate of Return (Yacktman) % Calculation
Forward Rate of Return is a concept that Don Yacktman uses in his investment approach. Yacktman explained the forward rate of return concept in detail in his interview with GuruFocus. Yacktman defines forward rate of return as the normalized free cash flow yield plus real growth plus inflation. He said in the interview (March 2012, when the S&P 500 was at about 1400):
If the business is stable, this calculation is fairly straightforward. For instance, on the S&P 500 we would normalize earnings. We would then calculate what percentage of those earnings are not reinvested in the underlying businesses and are therefore free. Historically, for the S&P 500, this has been just under 50% of earnings. Currently, we expect the S&P to earn about 70 on a normalized basis, a number which is far below reported earnings due to our adjusting for record high profit margins. $70 X ½ / 1400 gives you a normalized free cash flow yield of approximately 2.5%.
The historical real growth rate of the S&P 500 (companies) is about 1.5%. Assuming an inflation rate of 2.5%, the forward rate of return on an investment in the S&P 500 is about 6.5% today (2.5% free cash flow yield plus 1.5% real growth plus 2.5% inflation).
* For Operating Data section: All numbers are indicated by the unit behind each term and all currency related amount are in USD. * For other sections: All numbers are in millions except for per share data, ratio, and percentage. All currency related amount are indicated in the company's associated stock exchange currency.
What does a Forward Rate of Return (Yacktman) % of 0.00% mean?
American Financial Group (AFG) has a Forward Rate of Return (Yacktman) % of 0.00% as of Jun. 2026. Yacktman's forward rate of return equals the sum of normalized free-cash-flow yield plus earnings growth. View historical data on American Financial Group and its competitors. Over the past decade, American Financial Group's Forward Rate of Return (Yacktman) % has ranged from 3.63 to 45.53. According to the industry distribution chart, American Financial Group ranks #192 out of 279 companies in the Insurance industry, placing it in the top 68.8%.
Is American Financial Group's Forward Rate of Return (Yacktman) % too high?
American Financial Group's current Forward Rate of Return (Yacktman) % is 0.00%. Over the past 10 years, this metric has ranged from a low of 3.63 to a high of 45.53. Based on the distribution chart, American Financial Group ranks #192 out of 279 companies in the Insurance industry, which is below the industry midpoint. Overall, American Financial Group has a GF Score™ of 80/100 and is considered Modestly Overvalued, reflecting its overall financial health beyond just this single metric.
How does American Financial Group's Forward Rate of Return (Yacktman) % compare to ORI and AIZ?
According to the Insurance industry distribution chart, American Financial Group ranks #192 out of 279 companies for Forward Rate of Return (Yacktman) %. This places American Financial Group in the lower half of its industry. The industry median Forward Rate of Return (Yacktman) % is 17.06. Historically, American Financial Group's own Forward Rate of Return (Yacktman) % has ranged from 3.63 to 45.53 over the past decade. See the competitive comparison table and distribution chart on this page for a detailed peer-by-peer breakdown.
What is a good Forward Rate of Return (Yacktman) % for an Insurance company?
The median Forward Rate of Return (Yacktman) % among Insurance companies is 17.06, based on 279 companies in the industry. Companies in the top quartile (top 25%) have a Forward Rate of Return (Yacktman) % significantly above this median, while those in the bottom quartile fall well below. However, Forward Rate of Return (Yacktman) % should not be evaluated in isolation — investors should consider it alongside profitability, growth, and financial strength metrics. Use the industry distribution chart on this page to see where any company falls relative to its peers.
What does a high Forward Rate of Return (Yacktman) % mean?
A high Forward Rate of Return (Yacktman) % can signal that a stock is expensive relative to its fundamentals. Yacktman's forward rate of return equals the sum of normalized free-cash-flow yield plus earnings growth. View historical data on American Financial Group and its competitors. For the Insurance industry, the median Forward Rate of Return (Yacktman) % is 17.06 — values significantly above this may indicate overvaluation, while values below may suggest a bargain or underlying issues. American Financial Group's current Forward Rate of Return (Yacktman) % is 0.00%. However, context matters — high-growth companies often justify higher valuations. Always evaluate alongside other metrics like GF Score™ and GF Value™.
Is American Financial Group stock overvalued right now?
Based on GuruFocus' analysis, American Financial Group (AFG) is currently considered Modestly Overvalued. The stock's GF Value™ is $126.17, compared to a current price of $145.59 — trading 15.4% above its estimated fair value. The current Forward Rate of Return (Yacktman) % is 0.00%. American Financial Group's overall GF Score™ is 80/100 with 4 warning signs to review. Investors should evaluate multiple metrics — including profitability, growth, and financial strength — before making a decision.
How is Forward Rate of Return (Yacktman) % calculated?
Forward Rate of Return (Yacktman) % is calculated from a company's financial statements. For American Financial Group (AFG), the current Forward Rate of Return (Yacktman) % is 0.00% as of Jun. 2026. GuruFocus calculates this using data sourced from SEC filings and annual reports. See the calculation section and 30-year financial data on this page for the full breakdown.
Is American Financial Group (AFG) Overvalued in 2026?
Based on GuruFocus' analysis, American Financial Group stock appears to be overvalued.
The current stock price of $145.59 is trading 15.4% above its estimated GF Value™ of $126.17.
GuruFocus considers American Financial Group to be Modestly Overvalued.
Key valuation signals for AFG:
Forward Rate of Return (Yacktman) %: 0.00%
GF Value™: $126.17 vs. price of $145.59 (15.4% above fair value)
No single metric tells the full story. See the AFG stock analysis page for a complete view including 30-year financials, guru trades, and insider activity.
American Financial Group Inc is an insurance holding company. Through its subsidiaries, it is engaged in the property and casualty insurance business, focusing on specialized commercial products for businesses. The group operates through two segments: Property and Casualty Insurance, which generates maximum revenue, and Other. The Property and Casualty Insurance segment is further divided into different sub-segments, such as Property and transportation, Specialty casualty, and Specialty financial. These sub-segments offer insurance coverage for vehicles and commercial property, customized programs for small to mid-sized businesses, workers' compensation insurance, risk management insurance programs for lending and leasing institutions, trade credit insurance, and other insurance products.
80GF Score
Get the complete analysis for AFG
Forward Rate of Return (Yacktman) % is just one metric. See GF Value™, 30-year financials, guru trades, warning signs, and more.
Quick Browse
Personalize
Premium Gurus 
Create New Portfolio
AFG has been successfully added to your 
