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American Express Co Intrinsic Value: DCF (FCF Based)

: $295.50 (As of Today)
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As of today (2022-08-12), American Express Co's intrinsic value calculated from the Discounted Cash Flow model is $295.50.

Note: Discounted Cash Flow model is only suitable for predictable companies (Business Predictability Rank higher than 1-Star). If the company's predictability rank is 1-Star or Not Rated, result may not be accurate due to the low predictability of business and the data will not be stored into our database.

American Express Co's Predictability Rank is 5-Stars.

Margin of Safety (FCF Based) using Discounted Cash Flow model for American Express Co is 43.88%.

The industry rank for American Express Co's Intrinsic Value: DCF (FCF Based) or its related term are showing as below:

AXP's Price-to-DCF (FCF Based) is ranked worse than
56.1% of 41 companies
in the Credit Services industry
Industry Median: 0.41 vs AXP: 0.56

American Express Co Intrinsic Value: DCF (FCF Based) Historical Data

The historical data trend for American Express Co's Intrinsic Value: DCF (FCF Based) can be seen below:

* For Operating Data section: All numbers are indicated by the unit behind each term and all currency related amount are in USD.
* For other sections: All numbers are in millions except for per share data, ratio, and percentage. All currency related amount are indicated in the company's associated stock exchange currency.

* Premium members only.

American Express Co Annual Data
Trend Dec12 Dec13 Dec14 Dec15 Dec16 Dec17 Dec18 Dec19 Dec20 Dec21
Intrinsic Value: DCF (FCF Based)
Premium Member Only Premium Member Only Premium Member Only Premium Member Only Premium Member Only 226.09 140.92 283.05 82.53 265.18

American Express Co Quarterly Data
Sep17 Dec17 Mar18 Jun18 Sep18 Dec18 Mar19 Jun19 Sep19 Dec19 Mar20 Jun20 Sep20 Dec20 Mar21 Jun21 Sep21 Dec21 Mar22 Jun22
Intrinsic Value: DCF (FCF Based) Premium Member Only Premium Member Only Premium Member Only Premium Member Only Premium Member Only Premium Member Only Premium Member Only Premium Member Only Premium Member Only Premium Member Only Premium Member Only Premium Member Only Premium Member Only Premium Member Only Premium Member Only 178.10 214.78 265.18 273.65 295.50

American Express Co Intrinsic Value: DCF (FCF Based) Calculation

This is the intrinsic value calculated from the Discounted Cash Flow model with default parameters. In a discounted cash flow model, the future cash flow is estimated based on a cash flow growth rate and a discount rate. The cash flow of the future is discounted to its current value at the discount rate. All of the discounted future cash flow is added together to get the current intrinsic value of the company.

Usually a two-stage model is used when calculating a stock's intrinsic value using a discounted cash flow model. The first stage is called the growth stage; the second is called the terminal stage. In the growth stage the company grows at a faster rate. Because it cannot grow at that rate forever, a lower rate is used for the terminal stage.

GuruFocus DCF calculator is a two-stage model. The default values are defined as:

1. Discount Rate: d = 9%
A reasonable discount rate assumption should be at least the long term average return of the stock market, which can be estimated from risk free rate plus risk premium of stock market. We used the 10-Year Treasury Constant Maturity Rate as the risk free rate and rounded up to the nearest integer, then added a risk premium of 6% to get the estimated discount rate. Some investors use their expected rate of return, which is also reasonable. A typical discount rate can be anywhere between 6% - 20%.

2. Growth Rate in the growth stage: g1 = 6.10%
Growth Rate in the growth stage = average free cash flow growth rate in the past 10 years. If it is higher than 20%, we use 20%. If it is less than 5%, we use 5% instead. => Average Free Cash Flow Growth Rate in the past 10 years was 6.10% which is less than 20% and higher than 5% => Growth Rate: 6.10%

3. Years of Growth Stage: y1 = 10

4. Terminal Growth Rate: g2 = 4%

5. Years of Terminal Growth: y2 = 10

6. Free Cash Flow per Share: fcf = $20.24.
However, GuruFocus DCF calculator is actually a Discounted Earnings calculator, the EPS without NRI is used as the default. The reason we are doing this is we found that historically stock prices are more correlated with earnings than free cash flow.

All of the default settings can be changed and the results are calculated automatically.

American Express Co's Intrinsic Value: DCF (FCF Based) for today is calculated as

Intrinsic Value: DCF (FCF Based)=Free Cash Flow per Share*{[(1+g1)/(1+d)+(1+g1)^2/(1+d)^2+...+(1+g1)^10/(1+d)^10]
+(1+g1)^10/(1+d)^10*[(1+g2)/(1+d)+(1+g2)^2/(1+d)^2+...+(1+g2)^10/(1+d)^10]}

set x = (1+g1)/(1+d) = (1+0.061)/(1+0.09) = 0.97339449541284
and y = (1+g2)/(1+d) = (1+0.04)/(1+0.09) = 0.95412844036697

Intrinsic Value: DCF (FCF Based)=Free Cash Flow per Share*{[x+x^2+...+x^10]+x^10*[y+y^2+...+y^10]}
=Free Cash Flow per Share*[x*(1-x^10)/(1-x)+x^10*y*(1-y^10)/(1-y)]
=20.24*14.5996
=295.50

Margin of Safety (FCF Based)=(Intrinsic Value: DCF (FCF Based)-Current Price)/Intrinsic Value: DCF (FCF Based)
=(295.5-165.84)/295.5
=43.88 %

* For Operating Data section: All numbers are indicated by the unit behind each term and all currency related amount are in USD.
* For other sections: All numbers are in millions except for per share data, ratio, and percentage. All currency related amount are indicated in the company's associated stock exchange currency.


American Express Co  (NYSE:AXP) Intrinsic Value: DCF (FCF Based) Explanation

Unlike valuation methods such as Net Current Asset Value, Tangible Book per Share, Graham Number, Median PS Value etc, discounted Cash Flow model evaluates the companies based on their future earnings power instead of their assets.


Be Aware

What you need to know about the DCF model:

1. The DCF model evaluates a company based on its future earnings power
2. Growth is taken into account; therefore a faster growth company is worth more if everything else is the same.
3. Since we are projecting future growth, it is assumed that the company will grow at the same rate as it did during the past 10 years. Therefore this model works better for the companies that have relatively consistent performance.
4. The DCF model works poorly for inconsistent performers such as cyclicals.
5. What discount rate should you use? Your expected return from the investment is a good discount rate assumption.
6. A larger margin of safety should be required for companies with less predictable businesses.

You can screen for stocks that trade below their Intrinsic Value: DCF (FCF Based) and Intrinsic Value: DCF (Earnings Based) with the GuruFocus All-in-One Screener. Companies with a high Predictability Rank that trade at a discount to their Intrinsic Value: DCF (FCF Based) and Intrinsic Value: DCF (Earnings Based) can be found in the screen of Undervalued Predictable Companies.


American Express Co Intrinsic Value: DCF (FCF Based) Related Terms

Thank you for viewing the detailed overview of American Express Co's Intrinsic Value: DCF (FCF Based) provided by GuruFocus.com. Please click on the following links to see related term pages.


American Express Co Business Description

American Express Co logo
Address
200 Vesey Street, New York, NY, USA, 10285
American Express is a global financial institution, operating in about 130 countries, that provides consumers and businesses charge and credit card payment products. The company also operates a highly profitable merchant payment network. Since 2018, it has operated in three segments: global consumer services, global commercial services, and global merchant and network services. In addition to payment products, the company's commercial business offers expense management tools, consulting services, and business loans.
Executives
Radhakrishnan Ravikumar officer: Chief Information Officer 200 VESEY STREET NEW YORK NY 10285
Nigro David officer: Chief Risk Officer 200 VESEY STREET NEW YORK NY 10285-5001
Pickrum Lisa W director 5900 RYLAND DRIVE BETHESDA MD 20817
Baltimore Thomas J Jr director PARK HOTELS & RESORTS INC. 1775 TYSONS BLVD, 7TH FLOOR TYSONS VA 22102
Phillips Jr Charles E director 113 WEST 88TH STREET NEW YORK NY 10024
Lieberman Quinn Jessica officer: Controller 200 VESEY STREET NEW YORK NY 10285
Parkhill Karen L director 1717 MAIN STREET, MC 6402 DALLAS TX 75201
Pike Lynn A director 200 VESEY STREET NEW YORK NY 10285
Skyler Jennifer officer: Chief Corp. Affairs Officer 200 VESEY STREET NEW YORK NY 10285
Joabar Raymond officer: CRO and Pres., GRBC 200 VESEY STREET NEW YORK NY 10285
Herena Monique officer: Chief Human Resources Officer 225 LIBERTY STREET NEW YORK NY 10286
Marrs Anna officer: Pres., Global Comm. Services 200 VESEY STREET 01-49-13 NEW YORK NY 10285
Vitale Gabrielle officer: Interim CRO and Pres, GRBC Grp 200 VESEY STREET NEW YORK NY 10285
Petrino Richard officer: EVP - Corporate Controller 200 VESEY STREET NEW YORK NY 10285
Young Christopher David director C/O MICROSOFT CORPORATION ONE MICROSOFT WAY REDMOND WA 98052-6399

American Express Co Headlines

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