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American Financial Group (American Financial Group) Intrinsic Value: Projected FCF : $298.17 (As of Apr. 26, 2024)


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What is American Financial Group Intrinsic Value: Projected FCF?

Since the intrinsic value calculations based on Discounted Cash Flow Intrinsic Value: DCF (FCF Based), or Discounted Earnings Intrinsic Value: DCF (Earnings Based) cannot be applied to companies without consistent revenue and earnings, GuruFocus developed a valuation model based on normalized Free Cash Flow and Book Value of the company. The details of how we calculate the intrinsic value of stocks are described in detail here.

As of today (2024-04-26), American Financial Group's Intrinsic Value: Projected FCF is $298.17. The stock price of American Financial Group is $127.34. Therefore, American Financial Group's Price-to-Intrinsic-Value-Projected-FCF of today is 0.4.

The historical rank and industry rank for American Financial Group's Intrinsic Value: Projected FCF or its related term are showing as below:

AFG' s Price-to-Projected-FCF Range Over the Past 10 Years
Min: 0.33   Med: 0.47   Max: 0.57
Current: 0.43

During the past 13 years, the highest Price-to-Intrinsic-Value-Projected-FCF of American Financial Group was 0.57. The lowest was 0.33. And the median was 0.47.

AFG's Price-to-Projected-FCF is ranked better than
73.21% of 392 companies
in the Insurance industry
Industry Median: 0.65 vs AFG: 0.43

American Financial Group Intrinsic Value: Projected FCF Historical Data

The historical data trend for American Financial Group's Intrinsic Value: Projected FCF can be seen below:

* For Operating Data section: All numbers are indicated by the unit behind each term and all currency related amount are in USD.
* For other sections: All numbers are in millions except for per share data, ratio, and percentage. All currency related amount are indicated in the company's associated stock exchange currency.

* Premium members only.

American Financial Group Intrinsic Value: Projected FCF Chart

American Financial Group Annual Data
Trend Dec14 Dec15 Dec16 Dec17 Dec18 Dec19 Dec20 Dec21 Dec22 Dec23
Intrinsic Value: Projected FCF
Get a 7-Day Free Trial Premium Member Only Premium Member Only 229.26 264.98 259.28 248.67 298.17

American Financial Group Quarterly Data
Mar19 Jun19 Sep19 Dec19 Mar20 Jun20 Sep20 Dec20 Mar21 Jun21 Sep21 Dec21 Mar22 Jun22 Sep22 Dec22 Mar23 Jun23 Sep23 Dec23
Intrinsic Value: Projected FCF Get a 7-Day Free Trial Premium Member Only Premium Member Only Premium Member Only Premium Member Only Premium Member Only Premium Member Only Premium Member Only Premium Member Only Premium Member Only Premium Member Only Premium Member Only Premium Member Only 248.67 247.32 251.80 261.55 298.17

Competitive Comparison of American Financial Group's Intrinsic Value: Projected FCF

For the Insurance - Property & Casualty subindustry, American Financial Group's Price-to-Projected-FCF, along with its competitors' market caps and Price-to-Projected-FCF data, can be viewed below:

* Competitive companies are chosen from companies within the same industry, with headquarter located in same country, with closest market capitalization; x-axis shows the market cap, and y-axis shows the term value; the bigger the dot, the larger the market cap. Note that "N/A" values will not show up in the chart.


American Financial Group's Price-to-Projected-FCF Distribution in the Insurance Industry

For the Insurance industry and Financial Services sector, American Financial Group's Price-to-Projected-FCF distribution charts can be found below:

* The bar in red indicates where American Financial Group's Price-to-Projected-FCF falls into.



American Financial Group Intrinsic Value: Projected FCF Calculation

Since the intrinsic value calculations based on Discounted Cash Flow Intrinsic Value: DCF (FCF Based), or Discounted Earnings Intrinsic Value: DCF (Earnings Based) cannot be applied to companies without consistent revenue and earnings, GuruFocus developed a valuation model based on normalized Free Cash Flow and Book Value of the company.

The details of how we calculate the intrinsic value of stocks are described in detail here.

This method smooths out the free cash flow over the past 6-7 years, multiplies the results by a growth multiple, and adds a portion of Total Stockholders Equity.

Intrinsic Value: Projected FCF = ( Growth Multiple * Free Cash Flow (6 year avg) + 0.8 * Total Stockholders Equity (most recent) ) / Shares Outstanding (Diluted Average)

In the case of negative Total Stockholders Equity, the following formula is used (see Explanation section below for the reason):

Intrinsic Value: Projected FCF = ( Growth Multiple * Free Cash Flow (6 year avg) + Total Stockholders Equity (most recent) / 0.8 ) / Shares Outstanding (Diluted Average)


Add all the Free Cash Flow together and divide 6 will get American Financial Group's Free Cash Flow(6 year avg) = $1,979.20.

American Financial Group's Intrinsic Value: Projected FCF for today is calculated as

Intrinsic Value: Projected FCF=(Growth Multiple*Free Cash Flow (6 year avg)+Total Stockholders Equity (Dec23)*0.8)/Shares Outstanding (Diluted Average)
=(10.918777632373*1979.2+4258*0.8)/83.900
=298.17

* For Operating Data section: All numbers are indicated by the unit behind each term and all currency related amount are in USD.
* For other sections: All numbers are in millions except for per share data, ratio, and percentage. All currency related amount are indicated in the company's associated stock exchange currency.


American Financial Group  (NYSE:AFG) Intrinsic Value: Projected FCF Explanation

The growth multiple is capped between 8.35 and 17.74.

Total Stockholders Equity weighting is more art than science and it should always be revisited in more detail when researching a company. Weightings from 0% to 100% to more than 100% are possible. 80% was chosen as a happy median after taking the above ideas into consideration.

American Financial Group's Price-to-Intrinsic-Value-Projected-FCF for today is calculated as

Price-to-Intrinsic-Value-Projected-FCF=Share Price/Intrinsic Value: Projected FCF
=127.34/298.17454934437
=0.43

* For Operating Data section: All numbers are indicated by the unit behind each term and all currency related amount are in USD.
* For other sections: All numbers are in millions except for per share data, ratio, and percentage. All currency related amount are indicated in the company's associated stock exchange currency.


American Financial Group Intrinsic Value: Projected FCF Related Terms

Thank you for viewing the detailed overview of American Financial Group's Intrinsic Value: Projected FCF provided by GuruFocus.com. Please click on the following links to see related term pages.


American Financial Group (American Financial Group) Business Description

Traded in Other Exchanges
Address
301 East Fourth Street, Cincinnati, OH, USA, 45202
American Financial Group Inc is a holding company that is engaged primarily in property and casualty insurance services. The company has a focus on specialized commercial products for businesses. American also has annuity operations that are focused on sales of traditional fixed and fixed-indexed annuities in the education, bank, and individual markets. American's insurance operations are conducted through the Great American Insurance Group. The group writes business in all 50 of the United States, primarily through independent agents and brokers.
Executives
Amy Y Murray director 3429 ARNOLD STREET, CINCINNATI OH 45202
William W Verity director 301 EAST FOURTH STREET, CINCINNATI OH 45202
Terry S Jacobs director 301 EAST FOURTH STREET, CINCINNATI OH 45202
Von Lehman John I director 301 EAST FOURTH STREET, 38TH FLOOR, CINCINNATI OH 45202
John B Berding director 301 E. FOURTH ST., 27TH FLOOR, CINCINNATI OH 45202
Mark A Weiss officer: Senior VP & General Counsel 301 EAST FOURTH STREET, CINCINNATI OH 45202
Michelle A Gillis officer: Sr. Vice President 301 E. FOURTH STREET, 39TH FLOOR, CINCINNATI OH 45202
Brian S. Hertzman other: principal financial officer 301 EAST FOURTH STREET, CINCINNATI OH 45202
Thompson David Lawrence Jr officer: President of Subsidiary 301 EAST FOURTH STREET, CINCINNATI OH 45202
James E Evans director, officer: Sr. V. Pres. & Gen. Counsel 301 E FOURTH STREET, CINCINNATI OH 45202
Lindner Carl H Iii director, officer: Co-President 14TH FLOOR PROVIDENT TOWER, ONE EAST FOURTH STREET, CINCINNATI OH 45202
S Craig Lindner director, officer: Co-President ONE EAST FOURTH STREET, CINCINNATI OH 45202
Vito C Peraino officer: Sr. VP & General Counsel 301 EAST FOURTH STREET, CINCINNATI OH 45202
Evans N Nwankwo director 301 EAST FOURTH STREET, 38TH FLOOR, CINCINNATI OH 45202
Kenneth C Ambrecht director 250 EAST FIFTH STREET, CINCINNATI OH 45202