Old Republic International (FRA:ORJ) Beneish M-Score: -2.45 (As of Jun. 27, 2026)


FRA:ORJ Old Republic International Corp FRA:ORJ
80 GF Score
Price €35.96
GF Value €32.25
Valuation Modestly Overvalued
! 4 Warning Signs
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What is Old Republic International Beneish M-Score?

Old Republic International FRA:ORJ +1.81% 80 Beneish M-Score is -2.45 as of Jun. 27, 2026. GuruFocus rates FRA:ORJ with a GF Score™ of 80/100 and a GF Value™ of €32.25 (Modestly Overvalued). The stock has 4 warning signs investors should review. Among 397 Insurance companies, Old Republic International ranks worse than 56.42% on this metric.

Note: Financial institutions were excluded from the sample in Beneish paper when calculating Beneish M-Score. Thus, the prediction might not fit banks and insurance companies.

The zones of discrimination for M-Score is as such:

An M-Score of equal or less than -1.78 suggests that the company is unlikely to be a manipulator.
An M-Score of greater than -1.78 signals that the company is likely to be a manipulator.

Good Sign:

Beneish M-Score -2.45 no higher than -1.78, which implies that the company is unlikely to be a manipulator.

The historical rank and industry rank for Old Republic International's Beneish M-Score or its related term are showing as below:

FRA:ORJ' s Beneish M-Score Range Over the Past 10 Years
Min: -2.68   Med: -2.45   Max: -1.99
Current: -2.45

During the past 13 years, the highest Beneish M-Score of Old Republic International was -1.99. The lowest was -2.68. And the median was -2.45.

FRA:ORJ
80GF Score
Old Republic International Corp FRA:ORJ
Beneish M-Score is just one metric. See GF Score™, valuation, warning signs, and more.
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Old Republic International Beneish M-Score Calculation

The M-score was created by Professor Messod Beneish. Instead of measuring the bankruptcy risk (Altman Z-Score) or business trend (Piotroski F-Score), M-score can be used to detect the risk of earnings manipulation. This is the original research paper on M-score.

The M-Score Variables:

The M-score of Old Republic International for today is based on a combination of the following eight different indices:

M=-4.84+0.92 * DSRI+0.528 * GMI+0.404 * AQI+0.892 * SGI+0.115 * DEPI
=-4.84+0.92 * 0.966+0.528 * 1+0.404 * 1+0.892 * 1.0492+0.115 * 1
-0.172 * SGAI+4.679 * TATA-0.327 * LVGI
-0.172 * 1+4.679 * -0.012929-0.327 * 0.9477
=-2.51

* For Operating Data section: All numbers are indicated by the unit behind each term and all currency related amount are in USD.
* For other sections: All numbers are in millions except for per share data, ratio, and percentage. All currency related amount are indicated in the company's associated stock exchange currency.

This Year (Mar26) TTM:Last Year (Mar25) TTM:
Total Receivables was €8,224 Mil.
Revenue was 2075.221 + 2040.633 + 2065.248 + 1914.509 = €8,096 Mil.
Gross Profit was 2075.221 + 2040.633 + 2065.248 + 1914.509 = €8,096 Mil.
Total Current Assets was €0 Mil.
Total Assets was €25,601 Mil.
Property, Plant and Equipment(Net PPE) was €0 Mil.
Depreciation, Depletion and Amortization(DDA) was €0 Mil.
Selling, General, & Admin. Expense(SGA) was €976 Mil.
Total Current Liabilities was €0 Mil.
Long-Term Debt & Capital Lease Obligation was €1,375 Mil.
Net Income was 285.45 + 176.266 + 238.134 + 177.215 = €877 Mil.
Non Operating Income was 40.914 + 40.48 + 43.196 + 43.003 = €168 Mil.
Cash Flow from Operations was 243.411 + 200.605 + 480.443 + 116.005 = €1,040 Mil.
 Total Receivables was €8,114 Mil.
Revenue was 1955.357 + 1912.674 + 2109.601 + 1738.716 = €7,716 Mil.
Gross Profit was 1955.357 + 1912.674 + 2109.601 + 1738.716 = €7,716 Mil.
Total Current Assets was €0 Mil.
Total Assets was €25,926 Mil.
Property, Plant and Equipment(Net PPE) was €0 Mil.
Depreciation, Depletion and Amortization(DDA) was €0 Mil.
Selling, General, & Admin. Expense(SGA) was €0 Mil.
Total Current Liabilities was €0 Mil.
Long-Term Debt & Capital Lease Obligation was €1,470 Mil.

1. DSRI = Days Sales in Receivables Index

Measured as the ratio of Revenue in Total Receivables in year t to year t-1.

A large increase in DSR could be indicative of revenue inflation.

DSRI=(Receivables_t / Revenue_t) / (Receivables_t-1 / Revenue_t-1)
=(8223.901 / 8095.611) / (8114.192 / 7716.348)
=1.015847 / 1.051559
=0.966

2. GMI = Gross Margin Index

Measured as the ratio of gross margin in year t-1 to gross margin in year t.

Gross margin has deteriorated when this index is above 1. A firm with poorer prospects is more likely to manipulate earnings.

GMI=GrossMargin_t-1 / GrossMargin_t
=(GrossProfit_t-1 / Revenue_t-1) / (GrossProfit_t / Revenue_t)
=(7716.348 / 7716.348) / (8095.611 / 8095.611)
=1 / 1
=1

3. AQI = Asset Quality Index

AQI is the ratio of asset quality in year t to year t-1.

Asset quality is measured as the ratio of non-current assets other than Property, Plant and Equipment to Total Assets.

AQI=(1 - (CurrentAssets_t + PPE_t) / TotalAssets_t) / (1 - (CurrentAssets_t-1 + PPE_t-1) / TotalAssets_t-1)
=(1 - (0 + 0) / 25600.54) / (1 - (0 + 0) / 25925.992)
=1 / 1
=1

4. SGI = Sales Growth Index

Ratio of Revenue in year t to sales in year t-1.

Sales growth is not itself a measure of manipulation. However, growth companies are likely to find themselves under pressure to manipulate in order to keep up appearances.

SGI=Sales_t / Sales_t-1
=Revenue_t / Revenue_t-1
=8095.611 / 7716.348
=1.0492

5. DEPI = Depreciation Index

Measured as the ratio of the rate of Depreciation, Depletion and Amortization in year t-1 to the corresponding rate in year t.

DEPI greater than 1 indicates that assets are being depreciated at a slower rate. This suggests that the firm might be revising useful asset life assumptions upwards, or adopting a new method that is income friendly.

DEPI=(Depreciation_t-1 / (Depreciaton_t-1 + PPE_t-1)) / (Depreciation_t / (Depreciaton_t + PPE_t))
=(0 / (0 + 0)) / (0 / (0 + 0))
= /
=1

Note: If the Depreciation, Depletion and Amortization data is not available, we assume that the depreciation rate is constant and set the Depreciation Index to 1.

6. SGAI = Sales, General and Administrative expenses Index

The ratio of Selling, General, & Admin. Expense(SGA) to Sales in year t relative to year t-1.

SGA expenses index > 1 means that the company is becoming less efficient in generate sales.

SGAI=(SGA_t / Sales_t) / (SGA_t-1 /Sales_t-1)
=(975.72 / 8095.611) / (0 / 7716.348)
=0.120525 / 0
=1

7. LVGI = Leverage Index

The ratio of total debt to Total Assets in year t relative to yeat t-1.

An LVGI > 1 indicates an increase in leverage

LVGI=((LTD_t + CurrentLiabilities_t) / TotalAssets_t) / ((LTD_t-1 + CurrentLiabilities_t-1) / TotalAssets_t-1)
=((1375.436 + 0) / 25600.54) / ((1469.732 + 0) / 25925.992)
=0.053727 / 0.05669
=0.9477

8. TATA = Total Accruals to Total Assets

Total accruals calculated as the change in working capital accounts other than cash less depreciation.

TATA=(IncomefromContinuingOperations_t - CashFlowsfromOperations_t) / TotalAssets_t
=(NetIncome_t - NonOperatingIncome_t - CashFlowsfromOperations_t) / TotalAssets_t
=(877.065 - 167.593 - 1040.464) / 25600.54
=-0.012929

An M-Score of equal or less than -1.78 suggests that the company is unlikely to be a manipulator. An M-Score of greater than -1.78 signals that the company is likely to be a manipulator.

Old Republic International has a M-score of -2.51 suggests that the company is unlikely to be a manipulator.

Frequently Asked Questions Learn more about Beneish M-Score →
What does a Beneish M-Score of -2.45 mean?
Old Republic International (FRA:ORJ) has a Beneish M-Score of -2.45 as of Jun. 27, 2026. The Beneish M-score measures the likelihood of earnings manipulation. View historical data on Old Republic International and its competitors. According to the industry distribution chart, Old Republic International ranks #224 out of 397 companies in the Insurance industry, placing it in the top 56.4%.
Is Old Republic International's Beneish M-Score too high?
Old Republic International's current Beneish M-Score is -2.45. Based on the distribution chart, Old Republic International ranks #224 out of 397 companies in the Insurance industry, which is below the industry midpoint. Overall, Old Republic International has a GF Score™ of 80/100 and is considered Modestly Overvalued, reflecting its overall financial health beyond just this single metric.
How does Old Republic International's Beneish M-Score compare to AFG and KNSL?
According to the Insurance industry distribution chart, Old Republic International ranks #224 out of 397 companies for Beneish M-Score. This places Old Republic International in the lower half of its industry. See the competitive comparison table and distribution chart on this page for a detailed peer-by-peer breakdown.
What is a good Beneish M-Score for an Insurance company?
A good Beneish M-Score depends on the Insurance industry context. However, Beneish M-Score should not be evaluated in isolation — investors should consider it alongside profitability, growth, and financial strength metrics. Use the industry distribution chart on this page to see where any company falls relative to its peers.
What does a high Beneish M-Score mean?
A high Beneish M-Score can signal that a stock is expensive relative to its fundamentals. The Beneish M-score measures the likelihood of earnings manipulation. View historical data on Old Republic International and its competitors. Old Republic International's current Beneish M-Score is -2.45. However, context matters — high-growth companies often justify higher valuations. Always evaluate alongside other metrics like GF Score™ and GF Value™.
Is Old Republic International stock overvalued right now?
Based on GuruFocus' analysis, Old Republic International (FRA:ORJ) is currently considered Modestly Overvalued. The stock's GF Value™ is €32.25, compared to a current price of €35.96 — trading 11.5% above its estimated fair value. The current Beneish M-Score is -2.45. Old Republic International's overall GF Score™ is 80/100 with 4 warning signs to review. Investors should evaluate multiple metrics — including profitability, growth, and financial strength — before making a decision.
How is Beneish M-Score calculated?
Beneish M-Score is calculated from a company's financial statements. For Old Republic International (FRA:ORJ), the current Beneish M-Score is -2.45 as of Jun. 27, 2026. GuruFocus calculates this using data sourced from SEC filings and annual reports. See the calculation section and 30-year financial data on this page for the full breakdown.

Is Old Republic International (FRA:ORJ) Overvalued in 2026?

Based on GuruFocus' analysis, Old Republic International stock appears to be overvalued. The current stock price of €35.96 is trading 11.5% above its estimated GF Value™ of €32.25. GuruFocus considers Old Republic International to be Modestly Overvalued.

Key valuation signals for FRA:ORJ:

  • Beneish M-Score: -2.45
  • GF Value™: €32.25 vs. price of €35.96 (11.5% above fair value)
  • GF Score™: 80/100 with 4 warning signs

No single metric tells the full story. See the FRA:ORJ stock analysis page for a complete view including 30-year financials, guru trades, and insider activity.

Old Republic International Business Description

Other Exchanges ORI:USAORJ:Germany
Address 307 North Michigan Avenue, Chicago, IL, USA, 60601
Old Republic International Corp is engaged in the business of insurance underwriting and related services. The company operates in two segments: Specialty Insurance and Title Insurance. The insurance provided by the company includes Automobile Extended Warranty Insurance, Aviation, Commercial Automobile Insurance, Inland Marine, Travel Accident, Workers' Compensation, Financial Indemnity, and others. The company generates the majority of its revenue from Specialty Insurance. The Specialty Insurance provides property and liability insurance principally to commercial clients.
80GF Score

Get the complete analysis for FRA:ORJ

Beneish M-Score is just one metric. See GF Value™, 30-year financials, guru trades, warning signs, and more.

€35.96
Price
€32.25
GF Value