BDRL (Blonder Tongue Laboratories) Predictability Rank

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What is Blonder Tongue Laboratories Predictability Rank?

Warren Buffett said many times that the companies he likes are:

1. Simple businesses that he understands
2. that have predictable and proven earnings and
3. with economic moat
4. those can be bought at a reasonable price.

It is hard to quantify "simple businesses that he (Buffett) understands", so we will focus on the other three characteristics instead. In GuruFocus Research: What worked in the market from 1998-2008? Part I: Introduction of Predictability Rank, we will show that the businesses that have predictable and proven earnings are usually also simple businesses that an average person could understand.

GuruFocus conducted a back test study of Warren Buffett's strategy of "buying good companies at fair prices" for the years from 1998-2008.

Blonder Tongue Laboratories Predictability Rank Calculation

In our database there are 2403 stocks that have been traded from Jan. 2, 1998 to Aug. 31, 2008. We have the complete 10-year financial data and trading prices of these companies for this period. We rank the predictability of these companies based on the consistency of their revenue per share and EBITDA (earning before interest, tax, depreciation and amortization) per share over the past ten fiscal years, and study the correlation between the stock performances and the predictability of the business.

Our study may be subject to these biases and assumptions:

Dividend yields are not counted for investment returns
Effects of price changes due to spin-offs may not be fully adjusted
Study is subjected to survivorship bias due to de-listing, bankruptcy, LBO, M&A, etc.

The correlation between business predictability and investment returns of a company is showed below.

Correlation Between Business Predictability and Investment Returns

	Predictables	Non-Predictable	All stocks
Total Number of stocks	570	1833	2403
Total Lost Money	61	830	891
Total Lost More Than 50%	18	412	430
Total Lost More Than 90%	4	86	90
Average Gain	260.6%	100.0%	138.1%
Median Gain	150.0%	13.0%	39.0%
Maximum Gain	2852.0%	11483.0%	11483.0%
Maximum Loss	-100.0%	-100.0%	-100.0%
Annualized Average Gain	12.7%	6.7%	8.4%
Annualized Median Gain	8.9%	1.1%	3.1%

For the 570 predictable companies, we have seen strong correlation between the predictability of businesses and the stock performances over the past 10 years, regardless of the valuation of business at 1998. Accordingly, we have ranked the business predictability from 5-star to 1-star, as shown in this table.

Predictability Rank	5-Star	4.5-Star	4-Star	3.5-Star	3-Star	2.5-Star	2-Star	1-Star (non-predictable)	Average among all
% Out of All 2403 Stocks	3.3%	2.9%	3.7%	3.3%	3.3%	3.7%	3.3%	76.3%	100%
% that are in Loss (10y)	3%	10%	8%	9%	11%	18%	16%	45%	37%
Average Gain (10y)	364.6%	330.9%	278.0%	235.1%	243.5%	227.8%	154.8%	100.0%	138.1%
Median Gain (10y)	238.5%	193.5%	171.0%	159.0%	132.5%	113.5%	87.0%	13.0%	39.0%
Maximum Gainer	2228.0%	2547.0%	2452.0%	2852.0%	2432.0%	1892.0%	1807.0%	11483.0%	11483.0%
Maximum Loser	-82.0%	-53.0%	-67.0%	-100.0%	-83.0%	-100.0%	-78.0%	-100.0%	-100.0%
Annualized Average Gain	15.4%	14.6%	13.2%	12.0%	12.2%	11.7%	9.1%	6.7%	8.4%
Annualized Median Gain	12.1%	10.6%	9.8%	9.3%	8.2%	7.3%	6.0%	1.1%	3.1%

For detailed information about each predictability rank, please go to GuruFocus Research: What worked in the market from 1998-2008? Part I: Introduction of Predictability Rank

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Blonder Tongue Laboratories Business Description

Industry

GURUFOCUS.COM » STOCK LIST » Technology » Hardware » Blonder Tongue Laboratories Inc (OTCPK:BDRL) » Definitions » Predictability Rank

Comparable Companies

Traded in Other Exchanges

N/A

Address

One Jake Brown Road, Old Bridge, NJ, USA, 08857

Website

https://www.blondertongue.com

Blonder Tongue Laboratories Inc is a technology development and manufacturing company that provides television signal encoding, transcoding, digital transport, and broadband product solutions in the United States. The company serves the multi-dwelling unit market, the lodging/hospitality market, and the institutional market, including hospitals, prisons, and schools, throughout the United States and Canada. The company's revenues are derived from customers in the continental United States; it also derives some revenues from customers in other geographical markets like Canada and to a more limited extent, in developing countries.

Executives

Williams James H /nj/	director	C/O BLONDER TONGUE LABORATORIES INC, ONE JAKE BROWN RD, OLD BRIDGE NJ 08857
Palle Robert J Jr	director, 10 percent owner, officer: President and COO	C/O BLONDER TONGUE LABORATORIES INC, ONE JAKE BROWN ROAD, OLD BRIDGE NJ 08857
Eric S Skolnik	officer: Senior Vice President - CFO	C/O BLONDER TONGUE LABORATORIES INC, ONE JAKE BROWN ROAD, OLD BRIDGE NJ 08857
John E Burke	director	1540 BARDSEY LANE, LOWER GWYNEDD PA 19002
Anthony J Bruno	director	C/O BLONDER TONGUE LABORATORIES, INC., ONE JAKE BROWN ROAD, OLD BRIDGE NJ 08857
Cavalry Fund I Lp	10 percent owner	82 EAST ALLENDALE ROAD, SUITE 5B, SADDLE RIVER NJ 07458
Michael Hawkey	director	2160 GOLD STREET, SAN JOSE CA 95002
Rick E Briggs	director	C/O BLONDER TONGUE LABORATORIES, INC., ONE JAKE BROWN ROAD, OLD BRIDGE NJ 08857
Edward Rowland Grauch	officer: CEO & President	3208 HIGHWAY 98, MEXICO BEACH FL 32456
Jeffrey W Smith	officer: Vice President - Sales	C/O BLONDER TONGUE LABORATORIES, INC., ONE JAKE BROWN ROAD, OLD BRIDGE NJ 08857
Ronald Vincent Alterio	officer: VP-Engineering, CTO	C/O BLONDER TONGUE LABORATORIES, ONE JAKE BROWN ROAD, OLD BRIDGE NJ 08857
Gary P Scharmett	director
Steven L Shea	director	C/O BLONDER TONGUE LABORATORIES, INC., ONE JAKE BROWN ROAD, OLD BRIDGE NJ 08857
Stephen K Necessary	director
Bruce A Gureck	officer: Exec VP/COO	4671 BOCAIRE BLVD, BOCA RATON FL 33487