GURUFOCUS.COM » STOCK LIST » Financial Services » Banks » Muncy Columbia Financial Corp (OTCPK:CCFN) » Definitions » Predictability Rank

CCFN (Muncy Columbia Financial) Predictability Rank


View and export this data going back to . Start your Free Trial

What is Muncy Columbia Financial Predictability Rank?

1 (5)

Warren Buffett said many times that the companies he likes are:

1. Simple businesses that he understands
2. that have predictable and proven earnings and
3. with economic moat
4. those can be bought at a reasonable price.

It is hard to quantify "simple businesses that he (Buffett) understands", so we will focus on the other three characteristics instead. In GuruFocus Research: What worked in the market from 1998-2008? Part I: Introduction of Predictability Rank, we will show that the businesses that have predictable and proven earnings are usually also simple businesses that an average person could understand.

GuruFocus conducted a back test study of Warren Buffett's strategy of "buying good companies at fair prices" for the years from 1998-2008.

Muncy Columbia Financial Predictability Rank Calculation

In our database there are 2403 stocks that have been traded from Jan. 2, 1998 to Aug. 31, 2008. We have the complete 10-year financial data and trading prices of these companies for this period. We rank the predictability of these companies based on the consistency of their revenue per share and EBITDA (earning before interest, tax, depreciation and amortization) per share over the past ten fiscal years, and study the correlation between the stock performances and the predictability of the business.

Our study may be subject to these biases and assumptions:

Dividend yields are not counted for investment returns
Effects of price changes due to spin-offs may not be fully adjusted
Study is subjected to survivorship bias due to de-listing, bankruptcy, LBO, M&A, etc.

The correlation between business predictability and investment returns of a company is showed below.

Correlation Between Business Predictability and Investment Returns

PredictablesNon-PredictableAll stocks
Total Number of stocks57018332403
Total Lost Money61830891
Total Lost More Than 50%18412430
Total Lost More Than 90%48690
Average Gain260.6%100.0%138.1%
Median Gain150.0%13.0%39.0%
Maximum Gain2852.0%11483.0%11483.0%
Maximum Loss-100.0%-100.0%-100.0%
Annualized Average Gain12.7%6.7%8.4%
Annualized Median Gain8.9%1.1%3.1%


















For the 570 predictable companies, we have seen strong correlation between the predictability of businesses and the stock performances over the past 10 years, regardless of the valuation of business at 1998. Accordingly, we have ranked the business predictability from 5-star to 1-star, as shown in this table.

Predictability Rank5-Star4.5-Star4-Star3.5-Star3-Star2.5-Star2-Star1-Star (non-predictable)Average among all
% Out of All 2403 Stocks 3.3% 2.9% 3.7% 3.3% 3.3% 3.7% 3.3% 76.3% 100%
% that are in Loss (10y) 3% 10% 8% 9% 11% 18% 16% 45% 37%
Average Gain (10y) 364.6% 330.9% 278.0% 235.1% 243.5% 227.8% 154.8% 100.0% 138.1%
Median Gain (10y) 238.5% 193.5% 171.0% 159.0% 132.5% 113.5% 87.0% 13.0% 39.0%
Maximum Gainer 2228.0% 2547.0% 2452.0% 2852.0% 2432.0% 1892.0% 1807.0% 11483.0% 11483.0%
Maximum Loser -82.0% -53.0% -67.0% -100.0% -83.0% -100.0% -78.0% -100.0% -100.0%
Annualized Average Gain 15.4% 14.6% 13.2% 12.0% 12.2% 11.7% 9.1% 6.7% 8.4%
Annualized Median Gain 12.1% 10.6% 9.8% 9.3% 8.2% 7.3% 6.0% 1.1% 3.1%
















For detailed information about each predictability rank, please go to GuruFocus Research: What worked in the market from 1998-2008? Part I: Introduction of Predictability Rank

Also read:

Part II: What worked in the market from 1998-2008? Part II: Role of Valuations
Part III: Intrinsic Value, Discounted Cash Flow and Margin of Safety

Muncy Columbia Financial Predictability Rank Related Terms

Thank you for viewing the detailed overview of Muncy Columbia Financial's Predictability Rank provided by GuruFocus.com. Please click on the following links to see related term pages.

Muncy Columbia Financial Business Description

Industry
GURUFOCUS.COM » STOCK LIST » Financial Services » Banks » Muncy Columbia Financial Corp (OTCPK:CCFN) » Definitions » Predictability Rank
Comparable Companies
PMHG OVBC FCAP FNRN BVFL HNVR CFBK ATLO EFSI FFMH NSE:HDFCBANK SHSE:600036 NSE:ICICIBANK SAU:1120 MIL:UCG SGX:D05 XPAR:BNP MIL:ISP NSE:SBIN ISX:BBCA
Traded in Other Exchanges
N/A
Address
232 East Street, Bloomsburg, PA, USA, 17815
Website
https://www.journeybank.com
Muncy Columbia Financial Corp is a registered financial holding company. It has one subsidiary bank, Journey Bank, which is a full-service commercial bank providing a range of services and products, including time and demand deposit accounts, consumer, commercial and mortgage loans to individuals and small to medium-sized businesses in its Northcentral Pennsylvania market area. The Bank also operates a full-service trust department and offers brokerage services through a third-party networking agreement. It serves individuals, families, nonprofits and business clients throughout Clinton, Columbia, Lycoming, Montour, and Northumberland counties through its branch banking offices. The company operates in one segment which is Community Banking.
Executives
Steven H Shannon director PO BOX 803, BLOOMSBURG PA 17815
Jeffrey Thomas Arnold officer: Treasurer, CFO 1414 BRUSHY RIDGE ROAD, MONTOURSVILLE PA 17754
Paul K Page officer: Senior Vice President 11 WEST MAIN STREET, BLOOMSBURG PA 17815
Robert W Dillon director PO BOX 180, BLOOMSBURG PA 17815
Kile Willard H Jr director
Charles B Pursel director 120 WEST MAIN STREET, BLOOMSBURG PA 17815
P Jeffrey Hill director 2204 SHASTA DRIVE, BLOOMSBURG PA 17815
Gittler William F Jr director PMB 288, SUITE 1, 150 EAST NINTH ST., BLOOMSBURG PA 17815
Shirley K Alters officer: Senior Vice President & CFO 19 APPLE LANE, BLOOMSBURG PA 17815
Glenn E Halterman director 1417 TREELINE DRIVE, BLOOMSBURG PA 17815
Naugle Mary Ann B director 68 VISTA ROAD, BERWICK PA 18603
Joanne I Keenan director 2 BITTERSWEET DRIVE, BLOOMSBURG PA 17815
Andrew B Pruden director THE INN AT TURKEY HILL, 991 CENTRAL ROAD, BLOOMSBURG PA 17815
Harding Elwood R Jr director
Mcmichael W Bruce Jr director 83 DEER PATH DR, BERWICK PA 18603