Citizens Holding Co (Citizens Holding Co) Predictability Rank

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What is Citizens Holding Co Predictability Rank?

Warren Buffett said many times that the companies he likes are:

1. Simple businesses that he understands
2. that have predictable and proven earnings and
3. with economic moat
4. those can be bought at a reasonable price.

It is hard to quantify "simple businesses that he (Buffett) understands", so we will focus on the other three characteristics instead. In GuruFocus Research: What worked in the market from 1998-2008? Part I: Introduction of Predictability Rank, we will show that the businesses that have predictable and proven earnings are usually also simple businesses that an average person could understand.

GuruFocus conducted a back test study of Warren Buffett's strategy of "buying good companies at fair prices" for the years from 1998-2008.

Citizens Holding Co Predictability Rank Calculation

In our database there are 2403 stocks that have been traded from Jan. 2, 1998 to Aug. 31, 2008. We have the complete 10-year financial data and trading prices of these companies for this period. We rank the predictability of these companies based on the consistency of their revenue per share and EBITDA (earning before interest, tax, depreciation and amortization) per share over the past ten fiscal years, and study the correlation between the stock performances and the predictability of the business.

Our study may be subject to these biases and assumptions:

Dividend yields are not counted for investment returns
Effects of price changes due to spin-offs may not be fully adjusted
Study is subjected to survivorship bias due to de-listing, bankruptcy, LBO, M&A, etc.

The correlation between business predictability and investment returns of a company is showed below.

Correlation Between Business Predictability and Investment Returns

	Predictables	Non-Predictable	All stocks
Total Number of stocks	570	1833	2403
Total Lost Money	61	830	891
Total Lost More Than 50%	18	412	430
Total Lost More Than 90%	4	86	90
Average Gain	260.6%	100.0%	138.1%
Median Gain	150.0%	13.0%	39.0%
Maximum Gain	2852.0%	11483.0%	11483.0%
Maximum Loss	-100.0%	-100.0%	-100.0%
Annualized Average Gain	12.7%	6.7%	8.4%
Annualized Median Gain	8.9%	1.1%	3.1%

For the 570 predictable companies, we have seen strong correlation between the predictability of businesses and the stock performances over the past 10 years, regardless of the valuation of business at 1998. Accordingly, we have ranked the business predictability from 5-star to 1-star, as shown in this table.

Predictability Rank	5-Star	4.5-Star	4-Star	3.5-Star	3-Star	2.5-Star	2-Star	1-Star (non-predictable)	Average among all
% Out of All 2403 Stocks	3.3%	2.9%	3.7%	3.3%	3.3%	3.7%	3.3%	76.3%	100%
% that are in Loss (10y)	3%	10%	8%	9%	11%	18%	16%	45%	37%
Average Gain (10y)	364.6%	330.9%	278.0%	235.1%	243.5%	227.8%	154.8%	100.0%	138.1%
Median Gain (10y)	238.5%	193.5%	171.0%	159.0%	132.5%	113.5%	87.0%	13.0%	39.0%
Maximum Gainer	2228.0%	2547.0%	2452.0%	2852.0%	2432.0%	1892.0%	1807.0%	11483.0%	11483.0%
Maximum Loser	-82.0%	-53.0%	-67.0%	-100.0%	-83.0%	-100.0%	-78.0%	-100.0%	-100.0%
Annualized Average Gain	15.4%	14.6%	13.2%	12.0%	12.2%	11.7%	9.1%	6.7%	8.4%
Annualized Median Gain	12.1%	10.6%	9.8%	9.3%	8.2%	7.3%	6.0%	1.1%	3.1%

For detailed information about each predictability rank, please go to GuruFocus Research: What worked in the market from 1998-2008? Part I: Introduction of Predictability Rank

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Citizens Holding Co (Citizens Holding Co) Business Description

Industry

GURUFOCUS.COM » STOCK LIST » Financial Services » Banks » Citizens Holding Co (OTCPK:CIZN) » Definitions » Predictability Rank

Comparable Companies

Traded in Other Exchanges

N/A

Address

521 Main Street, Philadelphia, MS, USA, 39350

Website

https://www.thecitizensbankphila.com

Citizens Holding Co is a bank holding company. Through its subsidiary, it engages in various commercial and personal banking activities, such as accepting demand deposits, savings, and time deposit accounts, making secured and unsecured loans, issuing letters of credit, originating mortgage loans, and providing personal and corporate trust services. The firm also provides certain services that are closely related to commercial banking, such as credit life insurance and title insurance for its loan customers. It also involves providing lending activities which include commercial, real estate, installment, and credit card loans. Most of its revenues are derived from lending activities.

Executives

Vincent Craig Dungan	director	5401 WESTMINSTER DRIVE, MERIDIAN MS 39305-9559
Herbert A King	director	101 LITTLEJOHN LANE, STARKVILLE MS 39759
Phillip R Branch	officer: Chief Financial Officer	521 MAIN STREET, PHILADELPHIA MS 39350
Jane D. Crosswhite	director	10140 ROAD 377, PHILADELPHIA MS 39350
Stacy M Brantley	director, other: CEO of The Citizens Bank	521 MAIN STREET, PHILADELPHIA MS 39350
Gregory E. Cronin	director, officer: Gulf Cost President	521 MAIN STREET, PHILADELPHIA MS 39350
Jason Voyles	director	177 SAINT ANDREWS DRIVE, JACKSON MS 39211
Gregory Lyle Mckee	director, officer: President and CEO	11360 HIGHWY 16 EAST, PHILADELPHIA PA 39350
David Peebles Webb	director	613 INGLENOOK COURT, MADISON MS 39110
David Anderson King	director	1006 EDGEWATER LANE, PHILADELPHIA MS 39350
Robert Townsend Smith	officer: Treasurer and CFO
Terrell Elton Winstead	director	10100 ROAD 2230, UNION MS 39365
Daniel Adam Mars	director	518 POPLAR AVENUE, PHILADELPHIA MS 39350
Amzie Thomas Williams	director	900 MAPLE AVENUE, PHILADELPHIA MS 39350
Joe Steve Webb	director	534 POPLAR AVENUE, PHILADELPHIA MS 39350