FFWM (First Foundation) Predictability Rank

View and export this data going back to 2014. Start your Free Trial

What is First Foundation Predictability Rank?

Warren Buffett said many times that the companies he likes are:

1. Simple businesses that he understands
2. that have predictable and proven earnings and
3. with economic moat
4. those can be bought at a reasonable price.

It is hard to quantify "simple businesses that he (Buffett) understands", so we will focus on the other three characteristics instead. In GuruFocus Research: What worked in the market from 1998-2008? Part I: Introduction of Predictability Rank, we will show that the businesses that have predictable and proven earnings are usually also simple businesses that an average person could understand.

GuruFocus conducted a back test study of Warren Buffett's strategy of "buying good companies at fair prices" for the years from 1998-2008.

First Foundation Predictability Rank Calculation

In our database there are 2403 stocks that have been traded from Jan. 2, 1998 to Aug. 31, 2008. We have the complete 10-year financial data and trading prices of these companies for this period. We rank the predictability of these companies based on the consistency of their revenue per share and EBITDA (earning before interest, tax, depreciation and amortization) per share over the past ten fiscal years, and study the correlation between the stock performances and the predictability of the business.

Our study may be subject to these biases and assumptions:

Dividend yields are not counted for investment returns
Effects of price changes due to spin-offs may not be fully adjusted
Study is subjected to survivorship bias due to de-listing, bankruptcy, LBO, M&A, etc.

The correlation between business predictability and investment returns of a company is showed below.

Correlation Between Business Predictability and Investment Returns

	Predictables	Non-Predictable	All stocks
Total Number of stocks	570	1833	2403
Total Lost Money	61	830	891
Total Lost More Than 50%	18	412	430
Total Lost More Than 90%	4	86	90
Average Gain	260.6%	100.0%	138.1%
Median Gain	150.0%	13.0%	39.0%
Maximum Gain	2852.0%	11483.0%	11483.0%
Maximum Loss	-100.0%	-100.0%	-100.0%
Annualized Average Gain	12.7%	6.7%	8.4%
Annualized Median Gain	8.9%	1.1%	3.1%

For the 570 predictable companies, we have seen strong correlation between the predictability of businesses and the stock performances over the past 10 years, regardless of the valuation of business at 1998. Accordingly, we have ranked the business predictability from 5-star to 1-star, as shown in this table.

Predictability Rank	5-Star	4.5-Star	4-Star	3.5-Star	3-Star	2.5-Star	2-Star	1-Star (non-predictable)	Average among all
% Out of All 2403 Stocks	3.3%	2.9%	3.7%	3.3%	3.3%	3.7%	3.3%	76.3%	100%
% that are in Loss (10y)	3%	10%	8%	9%	11%	18%	16%	45%	37%
Average Gain (10y)	364.6%	330.9%	278.0%	235.1%	243.5%	227.8%	154.8%	100.0%	138.1%
Median Gain (10y)	238.5%	193.5%	171.0%	159.0%	132.5%	113.5%	87.0%	13.0%	39.0%
Maximum Gainer	2228.0%	2547.0%	2452.0%	2852.0%	2432.0%	1892.0%	1807.0%	11483.0%	11483.0%
Maximum Loser	-82.0%	-53.0%	-67.0%	-100.0%	-83.0%	-100.0%	-78.0%	-100.0%	-100.0%
Annualized Average Gain	15.4%	14.6%	13.2%	12.0%	12.2%	11.7%	9.1%	6.7%	8.4%
Annualized Median Gain	12.1%	10.6%	9.8%	9.3%	8.2%	7.3%	6.0%	1.1%	3.1%

For detailed information about each predictability rank, please go to GuruFocus Research: What worked in the market from 1998-2008? Part I: Introduction of Predictability Rank

First Foundation Predictability Rank Related Terms

Thank you for viewing the detailed overview of First Foundation's Predictability Rank provided by GuruFocus.com. Please click on the following links to see related term pages.

First Foundation Business Description

Industry

GURUFOCUS.COM » STOCK LIST » Financial Services » Banks » First Foundation Inc (NYSE:FFWM) » Definitions » Predictability Rank

Comparable Companies

Traded in Other Exchanges

8F1:Germany

Address

200 Crescent Court, Suite 1400, Dallas, TX, USA, 75201

Website

https://www.ff-inc.com

First Foundation Inc is a financial services company. It is engaged in providing investment management and financial planning services for high-net-worth individuals, retirement plans, charitable institutions, and private foundations. The company focuses on segments namely Banking and Wealth Management. It also offers loans to individuals and entities that own and operate multifamily residential and commercial real estate properties as well as business banking products and services to small to moderate-sized businesses, professional firms, and consumer banking products and services to individuals.

Executives

Keller Ulrich E. Jr	director, 10 percent owner, officer: EXECUTIVE CHAIRMAN	18101 VON KARMAN AVENUE, SUITE 750, IRVINE CA 92612
James Britton	officer: Chief Financial Officer	C/O FIRST FOUNDATION INC., 200 CRESCENT COURT, SUITE 1400, DALLAS TX 75201
David G. Lake	director	18101 VON KARMAN AVE., SUITE 750, IRVINE CA 92612
Elizabeth A. Pagliarini	director	2 SOUTH POINTE DR., SUITE 100, LAKE FOREST CA 92630
Diane M. Rubin	director	40380 DESERT CREEK LANE, RANCHO MIRAGE CA 92270
Jacob Sonenshine	director	18101 VON KARMAN AVENUE, SUITE 750, IRVINE CA 92612
Max Briggs	director	18101 VON KARMAN AVENUE, SUITE 750, IRVINE CA 92612
Gabriel V. Vazquez	director	C/O FIRST FOUNDATION INC., 200 CRESCENT COURT, SUITE 1400, DALLAS TX 75201
John Hakopian	director, officer: PRES FIRST FOUNDATION ADVISORS	18101 VON KARMAN AVENUE, SUITE 750, IRVINE CA 92612
Scott F Kavanaugh	director, officer: CHIEF EXECUTIVE OFFICER	25342 DERBYHILL DR., LAGUNA HILLS CA 92653
Christopher M. Naghibi	officer: Chief Operating Officer	C/O FIRST FOUNDATION INC., 200 CRESCENT COURT, SUITE 1400, DALLAS TX 75201
Amy Djou	officer: Chief Financial Officer	C/O FIRST FOUNDATION INC., 200 CRESCENT COURT, SUITE 1400, DALLAS TX 75201
Hugo J. Nuno	officer: Chief Banking Officer	C/O FIRST FOUNDATION INC., 200 CRESCENT COURT, SUITE 1400, DALLAS TX 75201
Gary L Tice	director
Mitchell M. Rosenberg	director	18101 VON KARMAN AVENUE, SUITE 750, IRVINE CA 92612