FRAF (Franklin Financial Services) Predictability Rank

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What is Franklin Financial Services Predictability Rank?

Warren Buffett said many times that the companies he likes are:

1. Simple businesses that he understands
2. that have predictable and proven earnings and
3. with economic moat
4. those can be bought at a reasonable price.

It is hard to quantify "simple businesses that he (Buffett) understands", so we will focus on the other three characteristics instead. In GuruFocus Research: What worked in the market from 1998-2008? Part I: Introduction of Predictability Rank, we will show that the businesses that have predictable and proven earnings are usually also simple businesses that an average person could understand.

GuruFocus conducted a back test study of Warren Buffett's strategy of "buying good companies at fair prices" for the years from 1998-2008.

Franklin Financial Services Predictability Rank Calculation

In our database there are 2403 stocks that have been traded from Jan. 2, 1998 to Aug. 31, 2008. We have the complete 10-year financial data and trading prices of these companies for this period. We rank the predictability of these companies based on the consistency of their revenue per share and EBITDA (earning before interest, tax, depreciation and amortization) per share over the past ten fiscal years, and study the correlation between the stock performances and the predictability of the business.

Our study may be subject to these biases and assumptions:

Dividend yields are not counted for investment returns
Effects of price changes due to spin-offs may not be fully adjusted
Study is subjected to survivorship bias due to de-listing, bankruptcy, LBO, M&A, etc.

The correlation between business predictability and investment returns of a company is showed below.

Correlation Between Business Predictability and Investment Returns

	Predictables	Non-Predictable	All stocks
Total Number of stocks	570	1833	2403
Total Lost Money	61	830	891
Total Lost More Than 50%	18	412	430
Total Lost More Than 90%	4	86	90
Average Gain	260.6%	100.0%	138.1%
Median Gain	150.0%	13.0%	39.0%
Maximum Gain	2852.0%	11483.0%	11483.0%
Maximum Loss	-100.0%	-100.0%	-100.0%
Annualized Average Gain	12.7%	6.7%	8.4%
Annualized Median Gain	8.9%	1.1%	3.1%

For the 570 predictable companies, we have seen strong correlation between the predictability of businesses and the stock performances over the past 10 years, regardless of the valuation of business at 1998. Accordingly, we have ranked the business predictability from 5-star to 1-star, as shown in this table.

Predictability Rank	5-Star	4.5-Star	4-Star	3.5-Star	3-Star	2.5-Star	2-Star	1-Star (non-predictable)	Average among all
% Out of All 2403 Stocks	3.3%	2.9%	3.7%	3.3%	3.3%	3.7%	3.3%	76.3%	100%
% that are in Loss (10y)	3%	10%	8%	9%	11%	18%	16%	45%	37%
Average Gain (10y)	364.6%	330.9%	278.0%	235.1%	243.5%	227.8%	154.8%	100.0%	138.1%
Median Gain (10y)	238.5%	193.5%	171.0%	159.0%	132.5%	113.5%	87.0%	13.0%	39.0%
Maximum Gainer	2228.0%	2547.0%	2452.0%	2852.0%	2432.0%	1892.0%	1807.0%	11483.0%	11483.0%
Maximum Loser	-82.0%	-53.0%	-67.0%	-100.0%	-83.0%	-100.0%	-78.0%	-100.0%	-100.0%
Annualized Average Gain	15.4%	14.6%	13.2%	12.0%	12.2%	11.7%	9.1%	6.7%	8.4%
Annualized Median Gain	12.1%	10.6%	9.8%	9.3%	8.2%	7.3%	6.0%	1.1%	3.1%

For detailed information about each predictability rank, please go to GuruFocus Research: What worked in the market from 1998-2008? Part I: Introduction of Predictability Rank

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Franklin Financial Services Business Description

Industry

GURUFOCUS.COM » STOCK LIST » Financial Services » Banks » Franklin Financial Services Corp (NAS:FRAF) » Definitions » Predictability Rank

Comparable Companies

Traded in Other Exchanges

N/A

Address

1500 Nitterhouse Drive, Chambersburg, PA, USA, 17201-0819

Website

https://www.franklinfin.com

Franklin Financial Services Corp is a bank holding company based in the United States. It is engaged in general commercial, retail banking and trust services normally associated with community banks. It offers a broad range of banking services to businesses, individuals, and governmental entities which includes accepting and maintaining cheques, savings, and time deposit accounts, providing investment and trust services, making loans and providing safe deposit facilities. The bank also performs personal, corporate, pension and fiduciary services through its Investment and Trust Services Department.

Executives

Gregory A Duffey	director	1500 NITTERHOUSE DRIVE, CHAMBERSBURG PA 17201
Karen K Carmack	officer: SVP	1500 NITTERHOUSE DRIVE, CHAMBERSBURG PA 17201
Jennings Allan E Jr	director	1500 NITTERHOUSE DRIVE, CHAMBERSBURG PA 17201-6010
Carroll Charles Benner Jr	officer: COO	1500 NITTERHOUSE DRIVE, CHAMBERSBURG PA 17201
Mark R Hollar	officer: CFO	1500 NITTERHOUSE DRIVE, CHAMBERSBURG PA 17201
Timothy G Henry	officer: President	1500 NITTERHOUSE DRIVE, CHAMBERSBURG PA 17201
Kimberly Rzomp	director	1500 NITTERHOUSE DRIVE, CHAMBERSBURG PA 17201
Gregory I Snook	director	19419 PEARL DR., HAGERSTOWN MD 21742
Kevin W Craig	director	1500 NITTERHOUSE DRIVE, CHAMBERSBURG PA 17201
Patricia A Hanks	officer: SVP	20 SOUTH MAIN STREET, PO BOX 6010, CHAMBERSBURG PA 17201
Steven M Poynot	officer: COO	8004 BRIGHT LIGHT PLACE, ELLICOTT CITY MD 21043
David M Long	officer: SVP	1500 NITTERHOUSE DRIVE, CHAMBERSBURG PA 17201
Joseph C Lieb	officer: SVP	2 W. MULBERRY HILL ROAD, CARLISLE PA 17013
Louis J Giustini	officer: SVP	1500 NITTERHOUSE DRIVE, CHAMBERSBURG PA 17201
G Warren Elliott	director	1500 NITTERHOUSE DRIVE, CHAMBERSBURG PA 17201-6010