Grand River Commerce (Grand River Commerce) Predictability Rank

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What is Grand River Commerce Predictability Rank?

Warren Buffett said many times that the companies he likes are:

1. Simple businesses that he understands
2. that have predictable and proven earnings and
3. with economic moat
4. those can be bought at a reasonable price.

It is hard to quantify "simple businesses that he (Buffett) understands", so we will focus on the other three characteristics instead. In GuruFocus Research: What worked in the market from 1998-2008? Part I: Introduction of Predictability Rank, we will show that the businesses that have predictable and proven earnings are usually also simple businesses that an average person could understand.

GuruFocus conducted a back test study of Warren Buffett's strategy of "buying good companies at fair prices" for the years from 1998-2008.

Grand River Commerce Predictability Rank Calculation

In our database there are 2403 stocks that have been traded from Jan. 2, 1998 to Aug. 31, 2008. We have the complete 10-year financial data and trading prices of these companies for this period. We rank the predictability of these companies based on the consistency of their revenue per share and EBITDA (earning before interest, tax, depreciation and amortization) per share over the past ten fiscal years, and study the correlation between the stock performances and the predictability of the business.

Our study may be subject to these biases and assumptions:

Dividend yields are not counted for investment returns
Effects of price changes due to spin-offs may not be fully adjusted
Study is subjected to survivorship bias due to de-listing, bankruptcy, LBO, M&A, etc.

The correlation between business predictability and investment returns of a company is showed below.

Correlation Between Business Predictability and Investment Returns

	Predictables	Non-Predictable	All stocks
Total Number of stocks	570	1833	2403
Total Lost Money	61	830	891
Total Lost More Than 50%	18	412	430
Total Lost More Than 90%	4	86	90
Average Gain	260.6%	100.0%	138.1%
Median Gain	150.0%	13.0%	39.0%
Maximum Gain	2852.0%	11483.0%	11483.0%
Maximum Loss	-100.0%	-100.0%	-100.0%
Annualized Average Gain	12.7%	6.7%	8.4%
Annualized Median Gain	8.9%	1.1%	3.1%

For the 570 predictable companies, we have seen strong correlation between the predictability of businesses and the stock performances over the past 10 years, regardless of the valuation of business at 1998. Accordingly, we have ranked the business predictability from 5-star to 1-star, as shown in this table.

Predictability Rank	5-Star	4.5-Star	4-Star	3.5-Star	3-Star	2.5-Star	2-Star	1-Star (non-predictable)	Average among all
% Out of All 2403 Stocks	3.3%	2.9%	3.7%	3.3%	3.3%	3.7%	3.3%	76.3%	100%
% that are in Loss (10y)	3%	10%	8%	9%	11%	18%	16%	45%	37%
Average Gain (10y)	364.6%	330.9%	278.0%	235.1%	243.5%	227.8%	154.8%	100.0%	138.1%
Median Gain (10y)	238.5%	193.5%	171.0%	159.0%	132.5%	113.5%	87.0%	13.0%	39.0%
Maximum Gainer	2228.0%	2547.0%	2452.0%	2852.0%	2432.0%	1892.0%	1807.0%	11483.0%	11483.0%
Maximum Loser	-82.0%	-53.0%	-67.0%	-100.0%	-83.0%	-100.0%	-78.0%	-100.0%	-100.0%
Annualized Average Gain	15.4%	14.6%	13.2%	12.0%	12.2%	11.7%	9.1%	6.7%	8.4%
Annualized Median Gain	12.1%	10.6%	9.8%	9.3%	8.2%	7.3%	6.0%	1.1%	3.1%

For detailed information about each predictability rank, please go to GuruFocus Research: What worked in the market from 1998-2008? Part I: Introduction of Predictability Rank

Grand River Commerce Predictability Rank Related Terms

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Grand River Commerce (Grand River Commerce) Business Description

Industry

GURUFOCUS.COM » STOCK LIST » Financial Services » Banks » Grand River Commerce Inc (OTCPK:GNRV) » Definitions » Predictability Rank

Comparable Companies

Traded in Other Exchanges

N/A

Address

4471 Wilson Avenue, South West, Grandville, MI, USA, 49418

Website

https://www.grandriverbank.com

Grand River Commerce Inc is a United States based bank holding company. It operates a full-service commercial bank and offers a range of commercial and consumer banking services to businesses, professionals, and local residents. The bank's deposit products are Interest and Non-interest bearing checking accounts, Savings accounts and Time deposits, and its primary lending products are Real estate mortgages, Commercial and Consumer loans. The company's prime source of revenue is the interest income.

Executives

Patrick K Gill	officer: PRES/CEO - Grand River Bank
Thomas Patrick Jeakle	director	333 BRIDGE NW, 11TH FLOOR, GRAND RAPIDS MI 49504
Randall L Hartgerink	director	4471 WILSON AVENUE SW, GRANDVILLE MI 49418
Ted Kortes	director	PO BOX 100, MT. PLEASANT MI 48804-0100
Blauw Richard James Jr	director	4471 WILSON AVENUE SW, GRANDVILLE MI 49418
Roger Lee Roode	director	4471 WILSON AVENUE SW, GRANDVILLE MI 49418
Jerry Andrew Sytsma	director, officer: VICE PRESIDENT, SECRETARY	4471 WILSON AVENUE SW, GRANDVILLE MI 49418
Robert Paul Bilotti	director, officer: CHAIRMAN, PRESIDENT AND CEO	4471 WILSON AVENUE SW, GRANDVILLE MI 49418
Jeffrey Alan Elders	director, officer: Treasurer	4471 WILSON AVENUE SW, GRANDVILLE MI 49418
David Kenneth Hovingh	director	4471 WILSON AVENUE SW, GRANDVILLE MI 49418
Cheryl Mae Blouw	director	4471 WISLON AVENUE SW, GRANDVILLE MI 49418
David Harold Blossey	director	4471 WILSON AVENUE SW, GRANDVILLE MI 49418
Lawrence Barcley Fitch	director	4471 WILSON AVENUE SW, GRANDVILLE MI 49418
Elizabeth Claire Bracken	officer: Chief Financial Officer	4471 WILSON AVE. SW, GRANDVILLE MI 49418
Mark Arden Martis	officer: CLO for Grand River Bank	4471 WILSON AVE SW, GRANDVILLE MI 49418

Grand River Commerce (Grand River Commerce) Headlines

From GuruFocus

Grand River Commerce, Inc. to Webcast Live at VirtualInvestorConferences.com September 26th

By PRNewswire PRNewswire • 09-23-2019