What is Heritage Financial Predictability Rank?
3.5 (5)
Warren Buffett said many times that the companies he likes are:
1. Simple businesses that he understands
2. that have predictable and proven earnings and
3. with economic moat
4. those can be bought at a reasonable price.
It is hard to quantify "simple businesses that he (Buffett) understands", so we will focus on the other three characteristics instead. In GuruFocus Research: What worked in the market from 1998-2008? Part I: Introduction of Predictability Rank, we will show that the businesses that have predictable and proven earnings are usually also simple businesses that an average person could understand.
GuruFocus conducted a back test study of Warren Buffett's strategy of "buying good companies at fair prices" for the years from 1998-2008.
Heritage Financial Predictability Rank Calculation
In our database there are 2403 stocks that have been traded from Jan. 2, 1998 to Aug. 31, 2008. We have the complete 10-year financial data and trading prices of these companies for this period. We rank the predictability of these companies based on the consistency of their revenue per share and EBITDA (earning before interest, tax, depreciation and amortization) per share over the past ten fiscal years, and study the correlation between the stock performances and the predictability of the business.
Our study may be subject to these biases and assumptions:
Dividend yields are not counted for investment returns
Effects of price changes due to spin-offs may not be fully adjusted
Study is subjected to survivorship bias due to de-listing, bankruptcy, LBO, M&A, etc.
The correlation between business predictability and investment returns of a company is showed below.
Correlation Between Business Predictability and Investment Returns
| Predictables | Non-Predictable | All stocks |
|---|
| Total Number of stocks | 570 | 1833 | 2403 |
| Total Lost Money | 61 | 830 | 891 |
| Total Lost More Than 50% | 18 | 412 | 430 |
| Total Lost More Than 90% | 4 | 86 | 90 |
| Average Gain | 260.6% | 100.0% | 138.1% |
| Median Gain | 150.0% | 13.0% | 39.0% |
| Maximum Gain | 2852.0% | 11483.0% | 11483.0% |
| Maximum Loss | -100.0% | -100.0% | -100.0% |
| Annualized Average Gain | 12.7% | 6.7% | 8.4% |
| Annualized Median Gain | 8.9% | 1.1% | 3.1% |
For the 570 predictable companies, we have seen strong correlation between the predictability of businesses and the stock performances over the past 10 years, regardless of the valuation of business at 1998. Accordingly, we have ranked the business predictability from 5-star to 1-star, as shown in this table.
| Predictability Rank | 5-Star | 4.5-Star | 4-Star | 3.5-Star | 3-Star | 2.5-Star | 2-Star | 1-Star (non-predictable) | Average among all |
|---|
| % Out of All 2403 Stocks |
3.3% |
2.9% |
3.7% |
3.3% |
3.3% |
3.7% |
3.3% |
76.3% |
100% |
| % that are in Loss (10y) |
3% |
10% |
8% |
9% |
11% |
18% |
16% |
45% |
37% |
| Average Gain (10y) |
364.6% |
330.9% |
278.0% |
235.1% |
243.5% |
227.8% |
154.8% |
100.0% |
138.1% |
| Median Gain (10y) |
238.5% |
193.5% |
171.0% |
159.0% |
132.5% |
113.5% |
87.0% |
13.0% |
39.0% |
| Maximum Gainer |
2228.0% |
2547.0% |
2452.0% |
2852.0% |
2432.0% |
1892.0% |
1807.0% |
11483.0% |
11483.0% |
| Maximum Loser |
-82.0% |
-53.0% |
-67.0% |
-100.0% |
-83.0% |
-100.0% |
-78.0% |
-100.0% |
-100.0% |
| Annualized Average Gain |
15.4% |
14.6% |
13.2% |
12.0% |
12.2% |
11.7% |
9.1% |
6.7% |
8.4% |
| Annualized Median Gain |
12.1% |
10.6% |
9.8% |
9.3% |
8.2% |
7.3% |
6.0% |
1.1% |
3.1% |
For detailed information about each predictability rank, please go to GuruFocus Research: What worked in the market from 1998-2008? Part I: Introduction of Predictability Rank
Also read:
Part II: What worked in the market from 1998-2008? Part II: Role of Valuations
Part III: Intrinsic Value, Discounted Cash Flow and Margin of Safety
Heritage Financial (Heritage Financial) Business Description
Traded in Other Exchanges
N/A
Address
201 Fifth Avenue SW, Olympia, WA, USA, 98501
Heritage Financial Corp is a bank holding company. The company through its subsidiary provides commercial lending and deposit relationships with small businesses and their owners in its market areas and attracts deposits from the general public. It accepts various deposit products, such as noninterest demand accounts, money market accounts, savings accounts, and certificates of deposit. Besides, the Bank also makes real estate construction loans, land development loans, and consumer loans, and originates first mortgage loans on residential properties primarily located in its market area. Geographically, all the business activity functions through the region of the United States.
Executives
| Frederick B Rivera |
director |
201 5TH AVE SW, OLYMPIA WA 98501 |
| Brian Charneski |
director |
P O BOX 1578, OLYMPIA WA 98507 |
| Jeffrey S Lyon |
director |
2542 N VISTA VIEW DRIVE, TACOMA WA 98406 |
| Matthew T. Ray |
officer: EVP Chief Lending Officer |
201 5TH AVE SW, OLYMPIA WA 98501 |
| Eric Kayen Chan |
director |
201 5TH AVE SW, OLYMPIA WA 98501 |
| Amy E. Curran |
officer: EVP Director Commercial Lend |
201 5TH AVE SW, OLYMPIA WA 98501 |
| Kelli Ann Wilson |
officer: EVP Chief Banking Officer |
201 5TH AVE SW, OLYMPIA WA 98501 |
| Cindy M Huntley |
officer: SVP Director of Retail Banking |
201 5TH AVE SW, OLYMPIA WA 98507 |
| Brian L Vance |
director, officer: President and CEO |
2204 57TH WAY NW, OLYMPIA WA 98502 |
| John A Clees |
director |
4342 SUNSET BEACH DRIVE NW, OLYMPIA WA 98502 |
| Tony Chalfant |
officer: EVP Chief Credit Officer |
201 5TH ST SW, OLYMPIA WA 98501 |
| Gail B. Giacobbe |
director |
201 5TH AVE SW, OLYMPIA WA 98501 |
| Trevor D. Dryer |
director |
201 5TH AVE SW, OLYMPIA WA 98501 |
| Gragg E Miller |
director |
450 SW BAYSHORE DRIVE, OAK HARBOR WA 98277 |
| Jeffrey J Deuel |
officer: Executive Vice President |
201 5TH AVENUE SW, OLYMPIA WA 90501 |
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