International Bancshares (International Bancshares) Predictability Rank

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What is International Bancshares Predictability Rank?

Warren Buffett said many times that the companies he likes are:

1. Simple businesses that he understands
2. that have predictable and proven earnings and
3. with economic moat
4. those can be bought at a reasonable price.

It is hard to quantify "simple businesses that he (Buffett) understands", so we will focus on the other three characteristics instead. In GuruFocus Research: What worked in the market from 1998-2008? Part I: Introduction of Predictability Rank, we will show that the businesses that have predictable and proven earnings are usually also simple businesses that an average person could understand.

GuruFocus conducted a back test study of Warren Buffett's strategy of "buying good companies at fair prices" for the years from 1998-2008.

International Bancshares Predictability Rank Calculation

In our database there are 2403 stocks that have been traded from Jan. 2, 1998 to Aug. 31, 2008. We have the complete 10-year financial data and trading prices of these companies for this period. We rank the predictability of these companies based on the consistency of their revenue per share and EBITDA (earning before interest, tax, depreciation and amortization) per share over the past ten fiscal years, and study the correlation between the stock performances and the predictability of the business.

Our study may be subject to these biases and assumptions:

Dividend yields are not counted for investment returns
Effects of price changes due to spin-offs may not be fully adjusted
Study is subjected to survivorship bias due to de-listing, bankruptcy, LBO, M&A, etc.

The correlation between business predictability and investment returns of a company is showed below.

Correlation Between Business Predictability and Investment Returns

	Predictables	Non-Predictable	All stocks
Total Number of stocks	570	1833	2403
Total Lost Money	61	830	891
Total Lost More Than 50%	18	412	430
Total Lost More Than 90%	4	86	90
Average Gain	260.6%	100.0%	138.1%
Median Gain	150.0%	13.0%	39.0%
Maximum Gain	2852.0%	11483.0%	11483.0%
Maximum Loss	-100.0%	-100.0%	-100.0%
Annualized Average Gain	12.7%	6.7%	8.4%
Annualized Median Gain	8.9%	1.1%	3.1%

For the 570 predictable companies, we have seen strong correlation between the predictability of businesses and the stock performances over the past 10 years, regardless of the valuation of business at 1998. Accordingly, we have ranked the business predictability from 5-star to 1-star, as shown in this table.

Predictability Rank	5-Star	4.5-Star	4-Star	3.5-Star	3-Star	2.5-Star	2-Star	1-Star (non-predictable)	Average among all
% Out of All 2403 Stocks	3.3%	2.9%	3.7%	3.3%	3.3%	3.7%	3.3%	76.3%	100%
% that are in Loss (10y)	3%	10%	8%	9%	11%	18%	16%	45%	37%
Average Gain (10y)	364.6%	330.9%	278.0%	235.1%	243.5%	227.8%	154.8%	100.0%	138.1%
Median Gain (10y)	238.5%	193.5%	171.0%	159.0%	132.5%	113.5%	87.0%	13.0%	39.0%
Maximum Gainer	2228.0%	2547.0%	2452.0%	2852.0%	2432.0%	1892.0%	1807.0%	11483.0%	11483.0%
Maximum Loser	-82.0%	-53.0%	-67.0%	-100.0%	-83.0%	-100.0%	-78.0%	-100.0%	-100.0%
Annualized Average Gain	15.4%	14.6%	13.2%	12.0%	12.2%	11.7%	9.1%	6.7%	8.4%
Annualized Median Gain	12.1%	10.6%	9.8%	9.3%	8.2%	7.3%	6.0%	1.1%	3.1%

For detailed information about each predictability rank, please go to GuruFocus Research: What worked in the market from 1998-2008? Part I: Introduction of Predictability Rank

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International Bancshares (International Bancshares) Business Description

Industry

GURUFOCUS.COM » STOCK LIST » Financial Services » Banks » International Bancshares Corp (NAS:IBOC) » Definitions » Predictability Rank

Comparable Companies

Traded in Other Exchanges

N/A

Address

1200 San Bernardo Avenue, Laredo, TX, USA, 78042 - 1359

Website

https://www.ibc.com

International Bancshares Corp is a financial holding company with bank subsidiaries that provide commercial and retail banking services, primarily in Texas and Oklahoma. The subsidiaries gather funds from various sources and invest these funds to earn a return. Fund gathering primarily takes the form of accepting demand and time deposits. The bank subsidiaries have historically focused on providing commercial banking services to small and medium-size businesses. The subsidiaries have increasingly transitioned to also providing consumer and retail banking, including mortgage lending. The company's strategy emphasizes customer service and expense control. The company generates net revenue primarily through net interest income.

Executives

Sanchez Antonio R Jr	director, 10 percent owner	1360 POST OAK BLVD, SUITE 2400, HOUSTON TX 77056
Diana G Zuniga	director	1200 SAN BERNARDO, 1200 SAN BERNARDO AVE, LAREDO TX 78040
Dalia F Martinez	officer: VICE PRESIDENT	1200 SAN BERNARDO, 1200 SAN BERNARDO AVE, LAREDO TX 78042
Rudolph Miles	director	1200 SAN BERNARDO, LAREDO TX 78040
Anda Javier De	director	1200 SAN BERNARDO, LAREDO TX 78040
Roberto R Resendez	director	1200 SAN BERNARDO, LAREDO TX 78040
Judith I Wawroski	officer: Treasurer/PAO	1200 SAN BERNARDO, LAREDO TX 78040
Julie L Tarvin	officer: VICE PRESIDENT	1200 SAN BERNARDO, LAREDO TX 78040
R David Guerra	director
Imelda Navarro	director, officer: Executive Officer
Leonardo Salinas	director	PO BOX 1359, LAREDO TX 78040
Larry A Norton	director	1200 SAN BERNARDO AVE., LAREDO TX 78040
Hastings Daniel B Jr	director	P O BOX 1359, LAREDO TX 78040
Dennis E Nixon	director, officer: CEO	P.O. BOX 1359, LAREDO TX 78040
Douglas B Howland	director	1200 SAN BERNARDO AVE., LAREDO TX 78040